Fourth part of this series.
Uttar Pradesh
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 80
The biggest state in terms of number of seats. Akilesh Yadav is at complete loss in handling the state. If there is one state that can be considered for partition it should be Uttar Pradesh. He has no clue of how to govern, with all the pullings from the stalwarts of the party including his uncles and dad. There have been so many riots in the last 1 year and the law and order is in a mess.
I strongly feel the Modi effect will be felt highly in Uttar Pradesh and that will help BJP a lot. With Amit Shah being made responsible for the state, things have started moving fast. BJP will gain heavily if they can consolidate the Hindu votes which they had lost a bit to Mayawati. She was smart in creating a social alliance between Brahmins and Dalits (which was unthinkable sometime back) to win a huge majority in the previous assembly elections. Brahmin votes have now more or less moved to BJP and she will definitely retain her Dalit vote base.
The VHP's plans for a Kosh Yatra which was stopped by the Akilesh government and now the riots in Muzzafar nagar all will help BJP in consolidating the Hindu votes. What is to be seen is if the anger among the muslim community against the Samajwadi party in the wester UP (after the recent riots) spread to other parts of the state and will really cause their votes to move away from SP.
Sad part is there is too much politics with religion in this state. BJP getting more hindu words is a given. Who gets the muslim votes is what will decide who will receive how many seats here.
Congress is the joker in the pack. It stunned everyone by winning 20 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. Don't think they will be able to repeat that feat unless muslims vote en-masse, which is highly unlikely to happen.
My Prediction
BJP - 35
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Congress - 8
Union Territories(except Delhi)
Total Lok Sabha seats : 6
My prediction
BJP - 3
Congress - 3
Tirupara
Total Lok Sabha seats - 2
My Prediction
CPM - 2
Sikkim
Total Lok Sabha seats - 1
My Prediction
SDF - 1 (this will be part of the congress alliance)
Nagaland
Total Lok Sabha seats - 1
My Prediction
NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)
Mizoram
Total Lok Sabha seats - 1
My Prediction
Congress - 1
Meghalaya
Total Lok Sabha seats - 2
My Prediction
NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)
Congress - 1
Manipur
Total Lok Sabha seats - 2
My Prediction
Congress - 2
Arunachal Pradesh
Total Lok Sabha seats - 2
My Prediction
Congress - 2
Assam
Total Lok Sabha seats - 14
Tarun Gogoi has currently in his third term as Chief Minister and I feel the anti-incumbency will play a part in this election. The AGP is likely to tie up with BJP again.
My Prediction
Congress - 7
AGP/BJP - 7
The last part of this series will have my overall observations and the total seats that each party will get.
Uttar Pradesh
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 80
The biggest state in terms of number of seats. Akilesh Yadav is at complete loss in handling the state. If there is one state that can be considered for partition it should be Uttar Pradesh. He has no clue of how to govern, with all the pullings from the stalwarts of the party including his uncles and dad. There have been so many riots in the last 1 year and the law and order is in a mess.
I strongly feel the Modi effect will be felt highly in Uttar Pradesh and that will help BJP a lot. With Amit Shah being made responsible for the state, things have started moving fast. BJP will gain heavily if they can consolidate the Hindu votes which they had lost a bit to Mayawati. She was smart in creating a social alliance between Brahmins and Dalits (which was unthinkable sometime back) to win a huge majority in the previous assembly elections. Brahmin votes have now more or less moved to BJP and she will definitely retain her Dalit vote base.
The VHP's plans for a Kosh Yatra which was stopped by the Akilesh government and now the riots in Muzzafar nagar all will help BJP in consolidating the Hindu votes. What is to be seen is if the anger among the muslim community against the Samajwadi party in the wester UP (after the recent riots) spread to other parts of the state and will really cause their votes to move away from SP.
Sad part is there is too much politics with religion in this state. BJP getting more hindu words is a given. Who gets the muslim votes is what will decide who will receive how many seats here.
Congress is the joker in the pack. It stunned everyone by winning 20 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. Don't think they will be able to repeat that feat unless muslims vote en-masse, which is highly unlikely to happen.
My Prediction
BJP - 35
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Congress - 8
Union Territories(except Delhi)
Total Lok Sabha seats : 6
My prediction
BJP - 3
Congress - 3
Tirupara
Total Lok Sabha seats - 2
My Prediction
CPM - 2
Sikkim
Total Lok Sabha seats - 1
My Prediction
SDF - 1 (this will be part of the congress alliance)
Nagaland
Total Lok Sabha seats - 1
My Prediction
NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)
Mizoram
Total Lok Sabha seats - 1
My Prediction
Congress - 1
Meghalaya
Total Lok Sabha seats - 2
My Prediction
NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)
Congress - 1
Manipur
Total Lok Sabha seats - 2
My Prediction
Congress - 2
Arunachal Pradesh
Total Lok Sabha seats - 2
My Prediction
Congress - 2
Assam
Total Lok Sabha seats - 14
Tarun Gogoi has currently in his third term as Chief Minister and I feel the anti-incumbency will play a part in this election. The AGP is likely to tie up with BJP again.
My Prediction
Congress - 7
AGP/BJP - 7
The last part of this series will have my overall observations and the total seats that each party will get.
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