Uttar Pradesh
BJP - 35
Congress - 8
SP - 20
BSP - 17
BJP will find it very difficult to cross the 35 mark as their organization structure fell apart after being out of power for nearly 2 decades. Even if they have support not sure if they can convert it to votes. This in itself is a tall order considering the fact that they have only 47 MLAs (12%).
Assam
One of the states where every pollster is agreeing that Congress will do well
Congress - 10
BJP + - 3
Punjab
Congress - 8
BJP + - 5
SAD is having a huge anti incumbency and that should really benefit Congress and the fact that they had some strong candidates also helps.
Tamil Nadu
BJP+ - 3
ADMK - 26
DMK - 10
Even though the alliance that BJP had formed looks formidable on paper they cannot win many seats. 3 is the max that they can win.
Andhra Pradesh
Congress messed up big time with the Telengana and the alliance/merger with TRS. However, there will be goodwill in the Telengana region which will help them win few seats.
Congress - 12
YSRC - 10
BJP + TDP - 12
TRS - 8
Chattisgarh
Raman Singh scrapped through in the assembly. He will do slightly better in the LS
BJP - 7
Congress - 4
Bihar
BJP - 10
LJP - 2
RJD - 10
Congress - 5
JDU - 13
Even though people are saying JDU will have huge reversals don't think that will happen. With a 3 way contest expect all 3 combos to get almost equal seats. BJP best case can get 3 more seats
Haryana
Vadra factor will play here.
BJP - 6
Congress - 4
INLD will get some of the anti incumbency votes. BJP at best can get 1 more seat. AAP can also play a spoiler here for BJP
Karnataka
Congress - 20
BJP - 6
JDS - 2
Best case for BJP is to get 4 more seats.
Kerala
LDF is still in ruins which only helps UDF
UDF - 14
LDF - 6
Odisha
BJD - 15
BJP - 4
Congress - 2
Gujarat
BJP - 22
Congress - 4
Gujarat has to vote for Modi. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the 4 seats that Congress wins is Gandhinagar, Modi is known for such things.
Maharashtra
BJP - 12
Congress - 14
SS - 10
NCP - 12
I strongly feel that MNS will still play the spoiler for the SS + BJP alliance even though they are primarily fighting only the SS. Best case for BJP is to win 5 more seats
Madhya Pradesh
Some strong candidates will ensure that Congress gets to double digits.
BJP - 19
Congress - 10
BJP can at best get 3 more seats
Rajasthan
This will be huge win for BJP like the assembly elections
BJP - 20
Congress - 5
Delhi
AAP - 2
Congress - 2
BJP - 3
Goa
BJP - 2
J&K
PDP - 1
Congress - 3
NC - 2
Himachal
Slogans like Dil Mange more will not work here
BJP - 2
Congress - 2
Uttarakhand
BJP - 2
Congress - 3
The rehabilitation post the floods will cause damage to Congress. BJP can win 1 more seat at best case
Tirupura
Left - 2
Sikkim
Congress - 1
Nagaland
BJP+ - 1
Mizoram
Congress - 1
Meghalaya
Congress - 2
Manipur
Congress - 2
Arunachal
Congress - 2
Union Territories
Congress - 3
BJP - 3
West Bengal
TMC - 25
Left - 12
Congress - 5
Jharkhand
BJP - 5
Congress - 6
RJD - 1
JMM - 2
BJP at best can win 2 more seats
Total
BJP+SS+SAD+TDP+LJP = 195
Congress+NC+RJD+NCP+JMM = 179
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Left - 20
DMK - 10
ADMK - 26
TMC - 25
YSRC - 10
JDU - 13
JDS - 2
BJD - 15
TRS - 8
AAP - 2
PDP - 1
How can BJP get to power?
BJP+ at best can add another 15 seats which will take it to 210 seats.
Another 62 -
TMC is completely ruled out with the recent utterances by TMC and BJP
SP is also ruled out
BSP is possible ally which will give them 17 seats
JDU and JDS are ruled out
Left is completely ruled out
BJD is a possible ally which will give another 15 seats
YSRC/TRS cannot be an ally as long as TDP is there in NDA
PDP is a possible ally with 1 more seat
Either ADMK or DMK could be a possible ally which will give them 25 or 10 seats.
Even then they will not be able to reach 272 unless they get few from the UPA like NCP or JMM or RLD. RJD and NC won't move over to NDA
BJP - 35
Congress - 8
SP - 20
BSP - 17
BJP will find it very difficult to cross the 35 mark as their organization structure fell apart after being out of power for nearly 2 decades. Even if they have support not sure if they can convert it to votes. This in itself is a tall order considering the fact that they have only 47 MLAs (12%).
Assam
One of the states where every pollster is agreeing that Congress will do well
Congress - 10
BJP + - 3
Punjab
Congress - 8
BJP + - 5
SAD is having a huge anti incumbency and that should really benefit Congress and the fact that they had some strong candidates also helps.
Tamil Nadu
BJP+ - 3
ADMK - 26
DMK - 10
Even though the alliance that BJP had formed looks formidable on paper they cannot win many seats. 3 is the max that they can win.
Andhra Pradesh
Congress messed up big time with the Telengana and the alliance/merger with TRS. However, there will be goodwill in the Telengana region which will help them win few seats.
Congress - 12
YSRC - 10
BJP + TDP - 12
TRS - 8
Chattisgarh
Raman Singh scrapped through in the assembly. He will do slightly better in the LS
BJP - 7
Congress - 4
Bihar
BJP - 10
LJP - 2
RJD - 10
Congress - 5
JDU - 13
Even though people are saying JDU will have huge reversals don't think that will happen. With a 3 way contest expect all 3 combos to get almost equal seats. BJP best case can get 3 more seats
Haryana
Vadra factor will play here.
BJP - 6
Congress - 4
INLD will get some of the anti incumbency votes. BJP at best can get 1 more seat. AAP can also play a spoiler here for BJP
Karnataka
Congress - 20
BJP - 6
JDS - 2
Best case for BJP is to get 4 more seats.
Kerala
LDF is still in ruins which only helps UDF
UDF - 14
LDF - 6
Odisha
BJD - 15
BJP - 4
Congress - 2
Gujarat
BJP - 22
Congress - 4
Gujarat has to vote for Modi. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the 4 seats that Congress wins is Gandhinagar, Modi is known for such things.
Maharashtra
BJP - 12
Congress - 14
SS - 10
NCP - 12
I strongly feel that MNS will still play the spoiler for the SS + BJP alliance even though they are primarily fighting only the SS. Best case for BJP is to win 5 more seats
Madhya Pradesh
Some strong candidates will ensure that Congress gets to double digits.
BJP - 19
Congress - 10
BJP can at best get 3 more seats
Rajasthan
This will be huge win for BJP like the assembly elections
BJP - 20
Congress - 5
Delhi
AAP - 2
Congress - 2
BJP - 3
Goa
BJP - 2
J&K
PDP - 1
Congress - 3
NC - 2
Himachal
Slogans like Dil Mange more will not work here
BJP - 2
Congress - 2
Uttarakhand
BJP - 2
Congress - 3
The rehabilitation post the floods will cause damage to Congress. BJP can win 1 more seat at best case
Tirupura
Left - 2
Sikkim
Congress - 1
Nagaland
BJP+ - 1
Mizoram
Congress - 1
Meghalaya
Congress - 2
Manipur
Congress - 2
Arunachal
Congress - 2
Union Territories
Congress - 3
BJP - 3
West Bengal
TMC - 25
Left - 12
Congress - 5
Jharkhand
BJP - 5
Congress - 6
RJD - 1
JMM - 2
BJP at best can win 2 more seats
Total
BJP+SS+SAD+TDP+LJP = 195
Congress+NC+RJD+NCP+JMM = 179
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Left - 20
DMK - 10
ADMK - 26
TMC - 25
YSRC - 10
JDU - 13
JDS - 2
BJD - 15
TRS - 8
AAP - 2
PDP - 1
How can BJP get to power?
BJP+ at best can add another 15 seats which will take it to 210 seats.
Another 62 -
TMC is completely ruled out with the recent utterances by TMC and BJP
SP is also ruled out
BSP is possible ally which will give them 17 seats
JDU and JDS are ruled out
Left is completely ruled out
BJD is a possible ally which will give another 15 seats
YSRC/TRS cannot be an ally as long as TDP is there in NDA
PDP is a possible ally with 1 more seat
Either ADMK or DMK could be a possible ally which will give them 25 or 10 seats.
Even then they will not be able to reach 272 unless they get few from the UPA like NCP or JMM or RLD. RJD and NC won't move over to NDA
