Third part of this series.
Punjab
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 13
Congress messed up a golden opportunity in the assembly election in 2012. They should have easily won that which would helped in carrying the momentum to the Lok Sabha elections. That being said, it would be a close contest between SAD/BJP alliance and Congress. Expect SAD/BJP to get majority of the seats.
My Prediction
SAD/BJP - 8
Congress - 5
Tamil Nadu
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 39
Being part of this state, my analysis will be in more detail.
Amma unavagam and pannai pasumai nugarvor kutturavu kadai (basically amma's kitchen & amma's farm fresh) are a huge hit with the public. People are able to have lunch & breakfast at less than 20 rupees is helping them to save money. Many people have stopped cooking lunch and breakfast at homes. Now that dinners(chapathi) is also getting added it will help establish JJ's social credentials.
The electricity, bus charge, milk charge increases that the government implemented at the beginning of its tenure is accepted as the new norm now. The power situation has also improved a lot. Even the industries are now getting regular power.
In terms of negatives there are still daily murders happening in Chennai, which is surprisingly not controlled. JJ known for a strong hold on the law and order has still not handled this.
People have realized that Vijayakanth is useless. He has lost all the charisma that he had after the incidents in the assembly and also the way he talks. Tamil people like their politicians to be politically correct, which he has not exhibited so far.
DMK is in trouble times because of the sibling rivalry. With the Congress supporting Kanimozhi for the RS seat they both will, in all likelihood, contest the elections together.
Vijayakanth has been saying that he will not join a DMK alliance, we will have to wait and watch what happens.
BJP is non-existant here. Modi mania might get them few more votes but will not help them win a seat.
In case the elections are contested as per current alliances - ADMK with left and DMK with Congress and DMDK alone.
My prediction
ADMK/Left - 29
DMK/Congress - 10 (Congress will get 2 of the 10)
JJ has been saying that she wants to contest the elections alone, but in case DMDK joins Congress and DMK then she will be forced to change her stance. DMDK/Congress/DMK alliance will be very formidable. Then JJ will have to take MDMK and PMK also into the alliance. If this happens then
My prediction
ADMK/Left/PMK/MDMK - 12
Congress/DMDK/DMK - 27
In case Congress forms an alliance with DMDK and DMK is left alone then
My prediction
ADMK/Left - 29
Congress/DMDK - 5
DMK - 5
As we don't know about future alliances, we will go with the first prediction based on the current alliances for now when we do the National predictions.
Uttarakhand
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 5
With Congress winning the recent assembly elections they should ideally carry the momentum. However, the recent floods and the rehabilitation might tilt the scales either way. Still will give Congress the upper hand.
My prediction
Congress - 4
BJP - 1
West Bengal
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 42
Bengalis are known for being smart. Mamata Banerjee has been a disaster as CM. Congress is not at all strong in West Bengal. They had a golden opportunity in strengthening the party as soon as Mamata left the UPA alliance. They should have gone all out in taking to the streets and protesting about all the missteps of the Mamata government. If they have done that, they could have projected themselves as an alternative to TMC and Left. Unfortunately they have not done that. Left has still not recovered from the loss that they suffered in the last assembly elections.
My prediction
TMC - 25
Congress - 5
Left - 12
This can change over the next 1 year if Mamata continues to perform in her own ways but with a weak opposition not sure who will gain from that.
Andhra Pradesh
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 42
With the Telangana decision being made and the possible merger of TRS with the Congress they might win a considerable number of seats in that region which has 17 seats. Jagan Mohan Reddy should do well, thanks to the goodwill that his father had created by all his social development schemes and freebies. People will vote for him just for his father rather than considering the money that he has swindled. TDP is almost dead and BJP is also not existent much here.
My prediction
Congress - 20
YSRC - 15
TDP - 7
Total from Part 1, 2 & 3
BJP - 109 (includes Shiv Sena, SAD)
Congress - 160
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
NC - 2
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 22
BJD - 15
DMK - 8
ADMK - 29
TMC - 25
TDP - 7
YSRC - 15
Part 4 will cover UP, North east and all UTs (except Delhi).
Punjab
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 13
Congress messed up a golden opportunity in the assembly election in 2012. They should have easily won that which would helped in carrying the momentum to the Lok Sabha elections. That being said, it would be a close contest between SAD/BJP alliance and Congress. Expect SAD/BJP to get majority of the seats.
My Prediction
SAD/BJP - 8
Congress - 5
Tamil Nadu
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 39
Being part of this state, my analysis will be in more detail.
Amma unavagam and pannai pasumai nugarvor kutturavu kadai (basically amma's kitchen & amma's farm fresh) are a huge hit with the public. People are able to have lunch & breakfast at less than 20 rupees is helping them to save money. Many people have stopped cooking lunch and breakfast at homes. Now that dinners(chapathi) is also getting added it will help establish JJ's social credentials.
The electricity, bus charge, milk charge increases that the government implemented at the beginning of its tenure is accepted as the new norm now. The power situation has also improved a lot. Even the industries are now getting regular power.
In terms of negatives there are still daily murders happening in Chennai, which is surprisingly not controlled. JJ known for a strong hold on the law and order has still not handled this.
People have realized that Vijayakanth is useless. He has lost all the charisma that he had after the incidents in the assembly and also the way he talks. Tamil people like their politicians to be politically correct, which he has not exhibited so far.
DMK is in trouble times because of the sibling rivalry. With the Congress supporting Kanimozhi for the RS seat they both will, in all likelihood, contest the elections together.
Vijayakanth has been saying that he will not join a DMK alliance, we will have to wait and watch what happens.
BJP is non-existant here. Modi mania might get them few more votes but will not help them win a seat.
In case the elections are contested as per current alliances - ADMK with left and DMK with Congress and DMDK alone.
My prediction
ADMK/Left - 29
DMK/Congress - 10 (Congress will get 2 of the 10)
JJ has been saying that she wants to contest the elections alone, but in case DMDK joins Congress and DMK then she will be forced to change her stance. DMDK/Congress/DMK alliance will be very formidable. Then JJ will have to take MDMK and PMK also into the alliance. If this happens then
My prediction
ADMK/Left/PMK/MDMK - 12
Congress/DMDK/DMK - 27
In case Congress forms an alliance with DMDK and DMK is left alone then
My prediction
ADMK/Left - 29
Congress/DMDK - 5
DMK - 5
As we don't know about future alliances, we will go with the first prediction based on the current alliances for now when we do the National predictions.
Uttarakhand
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 5
With Congress winning the recent assembly elections they should ideally carry the momentum. However, the recent floods and the rehabilitation might tilt the scales either way. Still will give Congress the upper hand.
My prediction
Congress - 4
BJP - 1
West Bengal
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 42
Bengalis are known for being smart. Mamata Banerjee has been a disaster as CM. Congress is not at all strong in West Bengal. They had a golden opportunity in strengthening the party as soon as Mamata left the UPA alliance. They should have gone all out in taking to the streets and protesting about all the missteps of the Mamata government. If they have done that, they could have projected themselves as an alternative to TMC and Left. Unfortunately they have not done that. Left has still not recovered from the loss that they suffered in the last assembly elections.
My prediction
TMC - 25
Congress - 5
Left - 12
This can change over the next 1 year if Mamata continues to perform in her own ways but with a weak opposition not sure who will gain from that.
Andhra Pradesh
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 42
With the Telangana decision being made and the possible merger of TRS with the Congress they might win a considerable number of seats in that region which has 17 seats. Jagan Mohan Reddy should do well, thanks to the goodwill that his father had created by all his social development schemes and freebies. People will vote for him just for his father rather than considering the money that he has swindled. TDP is almost dead and BJP is also not existent much here.
My prediction
Congress - 20
YSRC - 15
TDP - 7
Total from Part 1, 2 & 3
BJP - 109 (includes Shiv Sena, SAD)
Congress - 160
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
NC - 2
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 22
BJD - 15
DMK - 8
ADMK - 29
TMC - 25
TDP - 7
YSRC - 15
Part 4 will cover UP, North east and all UTs (except Delhi).
I somehow feel that JJ will part ways with the left and might form an alliance with BJP, thanks to her friendship with NaMo. I don't think she will form an alliance with PMK considering the fact that PMK leader has been provoking the CM and has been doing things against the law (CM).
ReplyDeleteIf JJ joins with BJP, left might lean towards congress.
DMK and Congress will stay together, as they know that they can't win a seat if they aren't together. They will try to pull in DMDK and PMK towards them.
Considering the major setback that PMK had in last assembly elections. In addition to the fact that PMK being taunted by JJ, will force PMK to join hands with DMK+Congress+DMDK+Left
It would be JJ+BJP+MDMK against all other parties.
JJ winning with absolute majority.
I recently went to Kumbakonam and Trichy area and spoke to local shopkeepers about power cut and all other freebies given to them, they mentioned it is all sorted out only a hour a day. They also have Amma's photo on table fan... :) Which is fine considering the shape TN was in, while she inherited.
Amma Unnavagam big hit...
6000 new Employment for youth... will get the votes of fresh/young voters
She has been silently doing a lot in southern districts.
Chennai will still remain as DMK's fort.
Chennai changed from being a DMK fort sometime back. Even in the last assembly elections they were routed.
ReplyDeleteJJ has a chance of becoming a PM if she plays her cards well as part of the third front. She wouldn't want to jeopardize that by aligning with BJP. If BJP is close to forming the government then JJ will support them post the elections.
I personally hope that PMK is not included in any of the alliance. They will be included in an alliance only if either of the parties are forced to do it. DMK was forced to include them last time as ADMK and DMDK formed a formidable alliance.
TN will be only of the states which will decide who will form the next government. Interesting times ahead
If JJ doesn't want to join hands with BJP, wouldn't it be difficult for her to have a convincing victory? Since there might be certain group of educated (youth) people who will follow the NaMo tide. This would lead to partition or spliting of vote banks which will favor only the Congress. BJP certainly cannot make it alone in TN and I feel, they would do all that is necessary to join hands with JJ. Let's see... it's going to be interesting.. Most part will also depend on Who is going to be the PM candidate for Congress. If it's going to be Rahul... I am it's going to be a fiasco for Congress and good thing for the nation.
ReplyDeleteAgreed few votes will go to Modi from the younger crowd but that will not be the deciding factor in the alliance formations. DMDK could possibly ally with BJP but ADMK or DMK will not ally with them before elections.
ReplyDeleteI strongly agree with what Ramachandra Guha had mentioned some time back, there are far better candidates in both BJP and congress than Modi and Rahul.
Rahul will find his own Manmohan Singh.