Coming to the second part of my post
Chattisgarh
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 11
Another state where the BJP and Congress fight it out head on. Raman singh has been doing an excellent job and is likely to win the assembly elections. That will help him in carrying the momentum into the Lok Sabha elections.
My prediction
BJP - 8
Congress - 3
Bihar
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 40
With the split between JDU and BJP, things are interesting in Bihar. If they had been together, they would swept Bihar like last time. Nitish is still doing a good job and should get more than 50% of the seats. Congress/JDU alliance can change the scenario completely, I expect the alliance will win more than 30 seats if they get together. Otherwise
My Prediction
JDU - 21
BJP - 8
RJD - 5
LJP - 3
Congress - 3
Haryana
Total Lok Sabha Seats : 10
With the wonders of the Son-in-law, congress will be impacted. Don't think by much though. Hooda is a good CM and has been doing a good job. Chauthala is in jail and BJP is not strong here.. So Congress should do well because of the weak opposition and strong CM.
My prediction
BJP - 1
Congress - 8
INLD - 1
Himachal Pradesh
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 4
Congress won the assembly election last year, that momentum should carry them in HP. Still BJP is also strong here.
My prediction
BJP - 2
Congress - 2
Jammu & Kashmir
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 6
Congress & NC alliance will continue and should see them through in most of the seats. Omar Abdullah has started performing better after learning from the 2010 summer riots. They also have 2 senior ministers in the center who should help in winning. BJP might do well in Jammu though.
My prediction
Congress - 3
NC - 2
BJP - 1
Jharkhand
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 14
With the recent alliance between Congress RJD and JMM, they will be in a strong position. This alliance is also ruling the state currently. This state is also in need of some consistent governance, that will also tilt the scales in the favor of this alliance.
My prediction
Congress - 8
JMM - 2
RJD - 1
BJP - 3
Karnataka
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 28
With the Congress winning the recent assembly elections, they will carry the momentum into the Lok Sabha polls. BJP is in complete disarray. As PC mentioned in the Lok Sabha few days back they have to thank Ananth Kumar for getting rid of Yeddy from the party. With Yeddy still not back in BJP, their support base has diminished. JDS also is not in good state.
My prediction
Congress - 21
BJP - 4
JDS - 3
Kerala
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 20
One of the few states where the left will do well. With the current solar scam against the Chandy government its going to be difficult for Congress to win big like last time. Will be a 50-50 state as most of the time.
My prediction
Congress - 10
Left - 10
Odisha
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 21
After separating from the BJP alliance, Naveen Patnaik has strengthened his hold. He is completely unchallenged in the state. BJD should win majority of the seats.
My prediction
BJD - 15
BJP - 4
Congress - 2
Total for Part 1 & Part 2
BJP - 100
Congress - 124
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
NC - 2
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 10
BJD - 15
Chattisgarh
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 11
Another state where the BJP and Congress fight it out head on. Raman singh has been doing an excellent job and is likely to win the assembly elections. That will help him in carrying the momentum into the Lok Sabha elections.
My prediction
BJP - 8
Congress - 3
Bihar
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 40
With the split between JDU and BJP, things are interesting in Bihar. If they had been together, they would swept Bihar like last time. Nitish is still doing a good job and should get more than 50% of the seats. Congress/JDU alliance can change the scenario completely, I expect the alliance will win more than 30 seats if they get together. Otherwise
My Prediction
JDU - 21
BJP - 8
RJD - 5
LJP - 3
Congress - 3
Haryana
Total Lok Sabha Seats : 10
With the wonders of the Son-in-law, congress will be impacted. Don't think by much though. Hooda is a good CM and has been doing a good job. Chauthala is in jail and BJP is not strong here.. So Congress should do well because of the weak opposition and strong CM.
My prediction
BJP - 1
Congress - 8
INLD - 1
Himachal Pradesh
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 4
Congress won the assembly election last year, that momentum should carry them in HP. Still BJP is also strong here.
My prediction
BJP - 2
Congress - 2
Jammu & Kashmir
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 6
Congress & NC alliance will continue and should see them through in most of the seats. Omar Abdullah has started performing better after learning from the 2010 summer riots. They also have 2 senior ministers in the center who should help in winning. BJP might do well in Jammu though.
My prediction
Congress - 3
NC - 2
BJP - 1
Jharkhand
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 14
With the recent alliance between Congress RJD and JMM, they will be in a strong position. This alliance is also ruling the state currently. This state is also in need of some consistent governance, that will also tilt the scales in the favor of this alliance.
My prediction
Congress - 8
JMM - 2
RJD - 1
BJP - 3
Karnataka
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 28
With the Congress winning the recent assembly elections, they will carry the momentum into the Lok Sabha polls. BJP is in complete disarray. As PC mentioned in the Lok Sabha few days back they have to thank Ananth Kumar for getting rid of Yeddy from the party. With Yeddy still not back in BJP, their support base has diminished. JDS also is not in good state.
My prediction
Congress - 21
BJP - 4
JDS - 3
Kerala
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 20
One of the few states where the left will do well. With the current solar scam against the Chandy government its going to be difficult for Congress to win big like last time. Will be a 50-50 state as most of the time.
My prediction
Congress - 10
Left - 10
Odisha
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 21
After separating from the BJP alliance, Naveen Patnaik has strengthened his hold. He is completely unchallenged in the state. BJD should win majority of the seats.
My prediction
BJD - 15
BJP - 4
Congress - 2
Total for Part 1 & Part 2
BJP - 100
Congress - 124
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
NC - 2
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 10
BJD - 15
Super analysis, you deserve to be called to one of the TV shows for analysis - the day is not far!!!
ReplyDeleteThanks Raaj.. I have 3 more parts to this series... 2 for the remaining states and the last one will be the consolidated all India one
ReplyDeleteNice. Waiting to know more on TN & Andhra (Espl) considering Telngana issue.
ReplyDeleteI still believe Congress will do bad in most of the states, since they don't have a vision/agenda for the future.
Ramesh - The sad part is even national elections are contested on local issues. That being the case even if at national level Congress performs badly, it all depends on how well or badly the state governments perform. Case in point - Recent Karnataka elections.
ReplyDelete