Third part of this series.
Punjab
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 13
Congress messed up a golden opportunity in the assembly election in 2012. They should have easily won that which would helped in carrying the momentum to the Lok Sabha elections. That being said, it would be a close contest between SAD/BJP alliance and Congress. Expect SAD/BJP to get majority of the seats.
My Prediction
SAD/BJP - 8
Congress - 5
Tamil Nadu
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 39
Being part of this state, my analysis will be in more detail.
Amma unavagam and pannai pasumai nugarvor kutturavu kadai (basically amma's kitchen & amma's farm fresh) are a huge hit with the public. People are able to have lunch & breakfast at less than 20 rupees is helping them to save money. Many people have stopped cooking lunch and breakfast at homes. Now that dinners(chapathi) is also getting added it will help establish JJ's social credentials.
The electricity, bus charge, milk charge increases that the government implemented at the beginning of its tenure is accepted as the new norm now. The power situation has also improved a lot. Even the industries are now getting regular power.
In terms of negatives there are still daily murders happening in Chennai, which is surprisingly not controlled. JJ known for a strong hold on the law and order has still not handled this.
People have realized that Vijayakanth is useless. He has lost all the charisma that he had after the incidents in the assembly and also the way he talks. Tamil people like their politicians to be politically correct, which he has not exhibited so far.
DMK is in trouble times because of the sibling rivalry. With the Congress supporting Kanimozhi for the RS seat they both will, in all likelihood, contest the elections together.
Vijayakanth has been saying that he will not join a DMK alliance, we will have to wait and watch what happens.
BJP is non-existant here. Modi mania might get them few more votes but will not help them win a seat.
In case the elections are contested as per current alliances - ADMK with left and DMK with Congress and DMDK alone.
My prediction
ADMK/Left - 29
DMK/Congress - 10 (Congress will get 2 of the 10)
JJ has been saying that she wants to contest the elections alone, but in case DMDK joins Congress and DMK then she will be forced to change her stance. DMDK/Congress/DMK alliance will be very formidable. Then JJ will have to take MDMK and PMK also into the alliance. If this happens then
My prediction
ADMK/Left/PMK/MDMK - 12
Congress/DMDK/DMK - 27
In case Congress forms an alliance with DMDK and DMK is left alone then
My prediction
ADMK/Left - 29
Congress/DMDK - 5
DMK - 5
As we don't know about future alliances, we will go with the first prediction based on the current alliances for now when we do the National predictions.
Uttarakhand
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 5
With Congress winning the recent assembly elections they should ideally carry the momentum. However, the recent floods and the rehabilitation might tilt the scales either way. Still will give Congress the upper hand.
My prediction
Congress - 4
BJP - 1
West Bengal
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 42
Bengalis are known for being smart. Mamata Banerjee has been a disaster as CM. Congress is not at all strong in West Bengal. They had a golden opportunity in strengthening the party as soon as Mamata left the UPA alliance. They should have gone all out in taking to the streets and protesting about all the missteps of the Mamata government. If they have done that, they could have projected themselves as an alternative to TMC and Left. Unfortunately they have not done that. Left has still not recovered from the loss that they suffered in the last assembly elections.
My prediction
TMC - 25
Congress - 5
Left - 12
This can change over the next 1 year if Mamata continues to perform in her own ways but with a weak opposition not sure who will gain from that.
Andhra Pradesh
Total Lok Sabha Seats - 42
With the Telangana decision being made and the possible merger of TRS with the Congress they might win a considerable number of seats in that region which has 17 seats. Jagan Mohan Reddy should do well, thanks to the goodwill that his father had created by all his social development schemes and freebies. People will vote for him just for his father rather than considering the money that he has swindled. TDP is almost dead and BJP is also not existent much here.
My prediction
Congress - 20
YSRC - 15
TDP - 7
Total from Part 1, 2 & 3
BJP - 109 (includes Shiv Sena, SAD)
Congress - 160
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
NC - 2
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 22
BJD - 15
DMK - 8
ADMK - 29
TMC - 25
TDP - 7
YSRC - 15
Part 4 will cover UP, North east and all UTs (except Delhi).