My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 4

Fourth part of this series.

Uttar Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 80

The biggest state in terms of number of seats. Akilesh Yadav is at complete loss in handling the state. If there is one state that can be considered for partition it should be Uttar Pradesh. He has no clue of how to govern, with all the pullings from the stalwarts of the party including his uncles and dad. There have been so many riots in the last 1 year and the law and order is in a mess.

I strongly feel the Modi effect will be felt highly in Uttar Pradesh and that will help BJP a lot. With Amit Shah being made responsible for the state, things have started moving fast. BJP will gain heavily if they can consolidate the Hindu votes which they had lost a bit to Mayawati. She was smart in creating a social alliance between Brahmins and Dalits (which was unthinkable sometime back) to win a huge majority in the previous assembly elections. Brahmin votes have now more or less moved to BJP and she will definitely retain her Dalit vote base.

The VHP's plans for a Kosh Yatra which was stopped by the Akilesh government and now the riots in Muzzafar nagar all will help BJP in consolidating the Hindu votes.  What is to be seen is if the anger among the muslim community against the Samajwadi party in the wester UP (after the recent riots) spread to other parts of the state and will really cause their votes to move away from SP.

Sad part is there is too much politics with religion in this state. BJP getting more hindu words is a given. Who gets the muslim votes is what will decide who will receive how many seats here.

Congress is the joker in the pack. It stunned everyone by winning 20 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. Don't think they will be able to repeat that feat unless muslims vote en-masse, which is highly unlikely to happen.

My Prediction

BJP - 35
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Congress - 8

Union Territories(except Delhi)

Total Lok Sabha seats  : 6

My prediction

BJP - 3
Congress - 3

Tirupara

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

CPM - 2

Sikkim

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

SDF - 1 (this will be part of the congress alliance)


Nagaland

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)

Mizoram

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

Congress - 1

Meghalaya

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)
Congress - 1

Manipur

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

Congress - 2

Arunachal Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

Congress - 2

Assam

Total Lok Sabha seats - 14

Tarun Gogoi has currently in his third term as Chief Minister and I feel the anti-incumbency will play a part in this election. The AGP is likely to tie up with BJP again.

My Prediction

Congress - 7
AGP/BJP - 7

The last part of this series will have my overall observations and the total seats that each party will get.

Syria - More Questions

Third blog on the Syrian issue.

The civil war is continuing and what I hear from the press is that the Government forces are gaining the upper hand. With Al Qaeda being part of the opposition, the West not attacking the Syrian government forces is the good thing. Can't imagine what would have happened if the West had joined hands with the Qaeda terrorists.

The large nation wanted to get out of the tricky situation and this move of handing over the Chemical weapons has helped them save some grace.

I have the following questions

1) If chemical weapons are moved to an international organization will the civil war end?
2) Will US pressurize the opposition also to handover the chemical weapons that they might have?
3) US has been saying that Assad has to go, as he was killing his own people. What has changed now?
4) Will the US completely stop providing weapons to the opposition forces?

 

Proud Moment for India - Mahindra Racing

India has had  a long history in motor racing. The Cholavaram race track near Chennai has been in existence more than 50 years and now we have moved on to Irungattukottai race track in Chennai.

However, when it comes to Indians or Indian teams at the very top level(F1 or Motogp), there has only been very few.

Narain Karthikeyan became the first Indian to drive  in F1 in 2005. 2008 we had an Indian F1 team with Force India. There was nothing Indian about it except the owner. Then in 2010 Karun Chandhok became the second Indian to drive in F1.

2011 had three debuts. Mahindra racing started participating in the MotoGP in the 125cc category. Mahindra has been racing for the last 3 years in the highest level of motor cycle racing. We then had S Sarath Kumar drive for a single race in the 125cc category in 2011. We also had an Indian Grand Prix in the Buddh International Circuit at Noida.

Mahindra racing is a fully Indian team with the vehicle manufactured by Indian. Agreed that it has a tie up with Suter Racing for 2013. They have had not so great results till last year but this year has been good for Mahindra racing.

Today as I write this blog, Mahindra Racing has gone one step ahead and has a first customer in Ambrogio Racing for the Mahindra vehicle in the Moto3 category. Ambrogio Racing is using Mahindra Racing from the Misano Grand prix happening this weekend. It is the testimony of the quality that Mahindra has been able to provide at that level.

This is a great moment for all Indians, that we have an Indian company which produces vehicles which is used in the Highest level of racing not just by that company but others as well.

Disappointed though, that this huge achievement has had very little (or should I say no coverage) in the Indian press.

However, true motor sport lovers like me are really proud of this achievement. Go Mahindra!!!

Putin for Peace Prize

This is more of a follow up to my earlier post on the subject of the West's intentions to attack Syria.

Obama went to town with his statements that he does not want United Nations approval and just the Congress approval. There were even statements that he will go ahead even without the Congress approval, not from official channels though. France and Britain was ready to join. However, UK Parliament put an hold to Cameron's plans of joining the bandwagon.

Then Kerry made an off the cuff remark that if Syria gives up its chemical weapons it will not be attacked. Russia brilliantly pounced on it and now Syria has even agreed to sign the CWC on top of handing over their entire chemical weapons to an international organization.

This is a huge loss of face for Obama for the following reasons

1) He was so committed to going to war but now had to back out
2) There were talks that Congress would have rejected the proposal, that would have been even worser situation for the president

Putin has come out in glowing colors out of this situation. There was a beautiful note he had written in the New York Times recently. The best part of the article was the way he had ended disagreeing Obama's statement about what makes Americans exceptional. Quoting the exact words "It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal."

There is lot of clamor for awarding Putin the Nobel Peace prize for averting an unnecessary war. I strongly second that. When people are given Nobel peace prize for just stating that they will stop(not actually stopping) an on going war, why not someone who has actually averted a war?

Putin for Peace Prize!!!

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 3

Third part of this series.

Punjab

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 13

Congress messed up a golden opportunity in the assembly election in 2012. They should have easily won that which would helped in carrying the momentum to the Lok Sabha elections. That being said, it would be a close contest between SAD/BJP alliance and Congress. Expect SAD/BJP to get majority of the seats.

My Prediction

SAD/BJP - 8
Congress - 5

Tamil Nadu

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 39

Being part of this state, my analysis will be in more detail.

Amma unavagam and pannai pasumai nugarvor kutturavu kadai (basically amma's kitchen & amma's farm fresh) are a huge hit with the public. People are able to have lunch & breakfast at less than 20 rupees is helping them to save money. Many people have stopped cooking lunch and breakfast at homes. Now that dinners(chapathi) is also getting added it will help establish JJ's social credentials.

The electricity, bus charge, milk charge increases that the government implemented at the beginning of its tenure is accepted as the new norm now. The power situation has also improved a lot. Even the industries are now getting regular power.

In terms of negatives there are still daily murders happening in Chennai, which is surprisingly not controlled. JJ known for a strong hold on the law and order has still not handled this.

People have realized that Vijayakanth is useless. He has lost all the charisma that he had after the incidents in the assembly and also the way he talks. Tamil people like their politicians to be politically correct, which he has not exhibited so far.

DMK is in trouble times because of the sibling rivalry. With the Congress supporting Kanimozhi for the RS seat they both will, in all likelihood, contest the elections together.

Vijayakanth has been saying that he will not join a DMK alliance, we will have to wait and watch what happens.

BJP is non-existant here. Modi mania might get them few more votes but will not help them win a seat.

In case the elections are contested as per current alliances - ADMK with left and DMK with Congress and DMDK alone.

My prediction

ADMK/Left - 29
DMK/Congress - 10 (Congress will get 2 of the 10)

JJ has been saying that she wants to contest the elections alone, but in case DMDK joins Congress and DMK then she will be forced to change her stance. DMDK/Congress/DMK alliance will be very formidable. Then JJ will have to take MDMK and PMK also into the alliance. If this happens then

My prediction

ADMK/Left/PMK/MDMK - 12
Congress/DMDK/DMK - 27

In case Congress forms an alliance with DMDK and DMK is left alone then

My prediction

ADMK/Left - 29
Congress/DMDK - 5
DMK - 5

As we don't know about future alliances, we will go with the first prediction based on the current alliances for now when we do the National predictions.

Uttarakhand

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 5

With Congress winning the recent assembly elections they should ideally carry the momentum. However, the recent floods and the rehabilitation might tilt the scales either way. Still will give Congress the upper hand.

My prediction

Congress - 4
BJP - 1

West Bengal

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 42

Bengalis are known for being smart. Mamata Banerjee has been a disaster as CM. Congress is not at all strong in West Bengal. They had a golden opportunity in strengthening the party as soon as Mamata left the UPA alliance. They should have gone all out in taking to the streets and protesting about all the missteps of the Mamata government. If they have done that, they could have projected themselves as an alternative to TMC and Left. Unfortunately they have not done that. Left has still not recovered from the loss that they suffered in the last assembly elections.

My prediction

TMC - 25
Congress - 5
Left - 12

This can change over the next 1 year if Mamata continues to perform in her own ways but with a weak opposition not sure who will gain from that.

Andhra Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 42

With the Telangana decision being made and the possible merger of TRS with the Congress they might win a considerable number of seats in that region which has 17 seats. Jagan Mohan Reddy should do well, thanks to the goodwill that his father had created by all his social development schemes and freebies. People will vote for him just for his father rather than considering the money that he has swindled. TDP is almost dead and BJP is also not existent much here.

My prediction

Congress - 20
YSRC - 15
TDP - 7

Total from Part 1, 2 & 3

BJP - 109 (includes Shiv Sena, SAD)
Congress - 160
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
NC - 2
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 22
BJD  - 15
DMK - 8
ADMK - 29
TMC - 25
TDP - 7
YSRC - 15

Part 4 will cover UP, North east and all UTs (except Delhi).

Kimi & Alonso @ Ferrari in 2014

With Kimi going back to Ferrari for 2014, there are two world champions in the team. Ferrari is known to have a policy of not having 2 roosters in the hen house and that seems to have changed suddenly. Ironically, Kimi was moved out of Ferrari when Alonso joined Ferrari from Renault in 2010. It would have been even more ironical if Alonso had moved to Red Bull as was rumored and Kimi joined Ferrari. Life would have come a full circle.

I feel bad for Massa, he could well have been a champion in 2008 if not for the help that Hamilton got from Timo Glock. He has always been a team man and making way for Alonso or Schumacher whenever he got a message that they were faster.

Alonso has always been a #1 driver in any team after his Minardi days except in 2007 when he drove for McLaren with Hamilton. That was a nightmare, he couldn't get along with Lewis and didn't like to be treated as equal with his team mate. We also remember what Nelson Piquet Jr was made to do in Singapore, not suggesting Alonso had any hand in the whole scandal. Even in the last weekend race he was seen complaining that Massa had moved too far ahead during the qualification and he couldn't get the advantage of the drag.

Kimi on the other hand had driven with fast drivers like David Coulthard, Montoya when he was driving for McLaren. Kimi is known for his no nonsense approach. He goes about doing his work and not bother about politics. This year he also got preferential treatment as he was fighting for championship lead.

Off late there is lots of heated argument between Alonso and Ferrari. Understood that Ferrari has not been able to give him a championship winning car but this continuous cribbing has not been taken lightly by the Ferrari team bosses. Ferrari needs to get a stronger team principle than Stefano Domenicali, that's a different story.

Having two world champions will definitely help win the constructors championship(which they have not won after 2007, in which year Kimi won the drivers championship). How they manage the two roosters in the hen house will be interesting to watch next year.

Kimi was the last guy to win Ferrari the drivers championship. Have to watch out who gets the love of the team, whether the guy who delivered them the championship or the guy who has been trying for 2010.

The last time we had two world champions in a team was when Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton drove for McLaren but even there Lewis was clearly the # 1.

Interesting times ahead. I also would like to see who will take over Kimi's spot in Lotus. He had helped them to the 3rd spot in the constructors and drivers championship last year. Don't think Grosjean is ready to take over as the lead driver for a top team. My expectations are Hulkeberg will move to Lotus as the second driver in Lotus and Massa will move to Sauber.

PS : Only Kimi is addressed by his first name and all others by last name, that's shows how special he his. Personal bias towards Kimi should be ignored :)

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 2

Coming to the second part of my post

Chattisgarh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 11

Another state where the BJP and Congress fight it out head on. Raman singh has been doing an excellent job and is likely to win the assembly elections. That will help him in carrying the momentum into the Lok Sabha elections.

My prediction
BJP - 8
Congress - 3

Bihar

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 40

With the split between JDU and BJP, things are interesting in Bihar. If they had been together, they would swept Bihar like last time. Nitish is still doing a good job and should get more than 50% of the seats. Congress/JDU alliance can change the scenario completely, I expect the alliance will win more than 30 seats if they get together. Otherwise

My Prediction
JDU - 21
BJP - 8
RJD - 5
LJP - 3
Congress - 3

Haryana

Total Lok Sabha Seats : 10

With the wonders of the Son-in-law, congress will be impacted. Don't think by much though. Hooda is a good CM and has been doing a good job. Chauthala is in jail and BJP is not strong here.. So Congress should do well because of the weak opposition and strong CM.

My prediction
BJP - 1
Congress - 8
INLD - 1

Himachal Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 4

Congress won the assembly election last year, that momentum should carry them in HP. Still BJP is also strong here.

My prediction
BJP - 2
Congress - 2

Jammu & Kashmir

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 6

Congress & NC alliance will continue and should see them through in most of the seats. Omar Abdullah has started performing better after learning from the 2010 summer riots. They also have 2 senior ministers in the center who should help in winning. BJP might do well in Jammu though.

My prediction
Congress - 3
NC - 2
BJP - 1

Jharkhand

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 14

With the recent alliance between Congress RJD and JMM, they will be in a strong position. This alliance is also ruling the state currently. This state is also in need of some consistent governance, that will also tilt the scales in the favor of this alliance.

My prediction
Congress - 8
JMM - 2
RJD - 1
BJP - 3

Karnataka

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 28

With the Congress winning the recent assembly elections, they will carry the momentum into the Lok Sabha polls. BJP is in complete disarray. As PC mentioned in the Lok Sabha few days back they have to thank Ananth Kumar for getting rid of Yeddy from the party. With Yeddy still not back in BJP, their support base has diminished. JDS also is not in good state.

My prediction
Congress - 21
BJP - 4
JDS - 3

Kerala

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 20

One of the few states where the left will do well. With the current solar scam against the Chandy government its going to be difficult for Congress to win big like last time. Will be a 50-50 state as most of the time.

My prediction
Congress - 10
Left - 10

Odisha

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 21

After separating from the BJP alliance, Naveen Patnaik has strengthened his hold. He is completely unchallenged in the state. BJD should win majority of the seats.

My prediction
BJD - 15
BJP - 4
Congress - 2

Total for Part 1 & Part 2

BJP - 100
Congress - 124
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
NC - 2
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 10
BJD  - 15