Post Conviction Surprise and the short lived happiness - OPS vs VKS

Sasikala, Sudhakaran and Elavarasi were convicted by the Supreme Court this morning. 

The OPS camp was expecting that the MLAs will move out of the resort and support him. At least that is the reading many people had. It still stays at 11 including OPS. 

It is no surprise that Sasikala has propped up Edapadi Palanisamy as her proxy. It was expected that someone will be propped up and it is Edapadi who was even talked about immediately after Jaya's death. 

The real surprise in all this is that the MLAs have still stayed with Sasikala. When Jaya was alive it was a completely different case, it is a huge surprise that MLAs are staying with Sasikala. Not really sure what is the hold that she has on the entire MLAs. Is it that the many of them were selected by her as candidates which is the reason for this? 

The governor has to either accept Edapadi's claim and swear him in or give OPS also an opportunity to prove his majority. For that OPS has to prove that he has more MLAs than the 11. 

OPS camp has to move aggressively in convincing the MLAs to move to his side, otherwise his game is over. 

The general public were against not just Sasikala but her entire clan. With Edapadi being her proxy the government will be completely run by her family. 

People were happy with the verdict this morning but with the MLAs supporting Sasikala's proxy and their happiness looks to be short lived. 

Tamil Nadu politics - OPS Vs VKS - Options and way forward

Background : 

December 5th or for that matter September 22nd changed the face of politics in Tamil Nadu. With Jayalalithaa being admitted in hospital and her subsequent demise things took a dramatic change in ADMK and Tamil Nadu politics. 

Going by the statements made by OPS recently, Sasikala requested him to take over the CM position as he had been 2 time CM and anyone else would cause the trouble in the party leading to a split in the party. The other side has not issued any denial so far at least. 

OPS had been performing well especially his handling of the Vardah cyclone, to a large extent the jalikattu protest (except the last day violence), the way he went to AP to speak to Chandrababu Naidu to ensure water is released were all very good. He was also very accessible to all especially the officials and things were going in the right direction. 

Also I was personally happy to see the ruling party and opposition talking to each other in a civilized manner (funnily Sasikala quoted that as the reason for sacking OPS). 

Sasikala took over the position of General secretary in late December and it was well known that she will also want to take over as CM eventually. When she called for the legislative party meeting on 5th of February it was a forgone conclusion that she will get elected as the CM. As expected the party MLAs selected her as the CM. Panneerselvam submitted his resignation and also proposed her name for the position of leader of the Legislative party and eventually the CM. 

Even though there was absolutely no public or cadre support for Sasikala people were more or less resigned to the fact that she is the CM. What no one expected was what happened on 7th of February when the caretaker CM went to Marina and sat on a meditation in front of Jayalalithaa's memorial. 

The moment he uttered the sentence that they were irritated by his good work it became apparent that the party is splitting. It was funny to see some of the party spokespeople who were on show during his meditation stating that "Annan" is praying to amma that everything should go fine and immediately after his press conference calling him a traitor. 

Governor's dilemma

Governor going to Delhi and then Mumbai for a few days was not right when things were happening in Chennai. Governor is also being careful in ensuring no one legally questions him. The following actions prove that 

1) He accepted OPS's resignation within a day even though his actions were clear that he was in no hurry to swear in Sasikala. 
2) Denied the secret note he sent to Home ministry - even though he wanted to wait till the DA case verdict is out which is what he had apparently quoted in that said note. To ensure he is not questioned in the courts, he quickly issued a denial about such a note
3) Not allowing parading of MLAs - the Sasikala group was keen to parade the MLAs which OPS also requested him not to allow

Options and way forward 


For OPS

All in all OPS has nothing much to lose and has already gained a lot. He has become a true hero from being termed the mixture mama that is a huge. There is a huge groundswell of support for him and whether he will be able to win an election with that is a different question, but at least for now the general public seem to favor him over Sasikala.

• He at present has only 7 MLAs and with most of them lodged (don't want to use the term locked up) in the private resort in ECR the number can at best go up to 10 immediately. 
• I believe that if his request to withdraw his resignation was legally tenable the governor would have allowed that. 
• In case the SC acquits Sasikala in the DA case, his aim would be to get at least 20+ MLAs which will ensure the Sasikala's side doesn't get to rule the state (this is also true in case she gets convicted and appoints a proxy)
• The best case scenario that OPS would be hoping for is SC convicting Sasikala and the majority MLAs move over to his side. 
• In case SC convicts Sasikala and she would nominate some other proxy and try to rule from inside the jail or through the so called mannargudi mafia. 
• The worst case scenario for his is Sasikala is acquitted and whoever are with him currently desert him. He would have a tough time to keep his political career alive then. 

For Sasikala

With governor having no inclination to swear her in as the CM, her options are limited. Till date she has been able to maintain most of her flock together. She has more to lose than gain. 

• In case she gets convicted in the DA case, she will try to appoint a proxy as CM. Having seen OPS someone who is known not to have high ambitions revolt she would be very worried about appointing anyone to the post of CM, she might go with a safe option of someone from the family which might also cause more trouble for her. 
• Her best case scenario is the get acquitted in the DA case and ensure she continues to keep her flock of MLAs intact. 
• In case she loses more than 20 MLAs (either way the verdict goes) she can as well bid goodbye to her political ambitions as there too much hatred for her and her family among the general public and also the party cadres. 

For Governor

Having decided to wait for the DA case verdict to be out and playing it safe legally so far his options are pretty simple unless things take a dramatic change in terms of the number of MLAs supporting both groups. 

• In case of conviction request ADMK to select a new leader 
• In case of an acquittal swear in Sasikala
• In case the MLA supporting both groups change drastically (don't think that will happen unless there is a conviction) will be the most interesting option. Will he go for a composite floor test? Or ask either of the two groups to prove the majority? To me personally he will go with Sasikala group or go for a composite floor test as he has so far not allowed OPS to withdraw his resignation and if he was ok with that option he could have done so already. (In the said note that he sent to home ministry he has not mentioned anything about withdrawal and called OPS as only the caretaker CM.) 

Side notes

• It was pathetic to see some of the ministers in such inebriated state, if you are so drunk stay at home or at least don't talk in front of the press.  
• The cops are playing it safe and not taking any directions from either side. Which is expected, but what was really surprising to see is they didn't even act when the press were attacked yesterday. 
• OPS's house is so very accessible and there were more curious crowd trying to see what is happening there. I could see people going for their evening walks just drop by to see what's happening. 
• There are also lots of women supporters showing up at OPS's house.
• There is definite backing from central government for OPS. They would also want to ensure the party stay together as they need ADMK support during the President election. It would be interesting to see how central government acts in case Sasikala gets acquitted. 
• I would also be interested to see what will happen to all this public support that OPS has now in case there is an acquittal. 

For people checking for updates very hours or minutes, don't expect anything to happen till the verdict is out. The court has already gone back on its words that they will issue the verdict within a week. Hope they issue the verdict tomorrow (02/14) at least.  

All in all interesting times ahead for a political junkie like me. 

Jalikattu Protest - The way it is coming to an end

First and foremost I don't buy this argument that Jalikattu is the only way to save native breeds. As has been widely mentioned the total native breed count has come down from 150 to 37. Jalikattu has been banned for only 2 years now and we didn't lose 113 breeds in 2 years for sure. The main reason is people moving away from low end farming job(MREGA is also a reason when people get paid for doing almost nothing) which causes shortage of people to help in farming which forces the farmers to move on to tractors and other mechanised farm equipments. Hence the farmers didn't have any use for the bulls and that is the reason why they are becoming extinct and not because of ban on Jalikattu. As mentioned in my earlier post, I strongly feel that the reasoning being given is same as justifying female foeticide. 

Secondly the most quoted A1 vs A2 milk hypothesis. As mentioned it is just an hypothesis and not proven. There is no scientific research which has proved this, so let us stop spreading falsehood. 

The protest that has been going on for over a week was very peaceful which was really surprising to see, as with such large crowd things can easily get ugly (as it started happening since this morning). Police and the administration also played the patient game till this morning. There were many good stories - of women not being harassed, people cleaning garbage from the protest sites, helping police in traffic regulation, etc. There were many women and children who joined the protest without any worries. All these are huge positives of how to run a peaceful protest. 

I am not for or against Jalikattu. However, if it is held I would expect it to be held with strict guidelines in ensuring the bulls are not hurt. 

There are statements being made that maadu muduthu naanga vangikarom. Try telling this to the family members of the two people who were killed yesterday. 

Coming to the topic of this post

1) There were no leader for this protest and no one to guide them. It was fanned by social media where any meme or post is construed as truth

2) When there are no leaders there is no one to guide them and hence they don't know what they were really protesting for and when to end the protest. 

3) Asking for ban on PETA, American products are stretching the protest beyond the realm of what it all started for

4) There were more peer pressure on people to be part of the protest. Many wanted to tell the world that they were also part of this. 

5) I was disappointed to see posters of LTTE Prabhakaran being shown on live television. 

6) Tamil Electronic media also didn't come out with glowing colors. There were many rumors that were spread without verification (like this morning when there was a news that Maneka Gandhi had filed a case against Jalikattu). The sad part is that most of the news channels in TN have backing of some political party or other and or they have their political motives. That being the case the coverage or the lack of it was driven by what their owners wanted to do. 

7) In the age of social media, everything flies. People don't validate anything and just keep passing on whatever they get. I saw many pictures since this morning of people being dragged and beaten including by police of other states (their badges were a clear give away). I used to wonder why in Kashmir the mobile data and internet are often cut off by the government, it helps in stopping all these kind of spreading falsehood. 

8) The protesters didn't even understand what an ordinance is. Just because the term being widely used to mean ordinance in tamil ("Avasara sattam") gives a meaning that it is temporary and quick fix doesn't mean that's what it is. There was no one to guide them on what an ordinance is. I heard people complaining that it is applicable only for 6 months - this is after the CM assured that he will table the law in the assembly this week itself. With a majority in the assembly and with such huge public support - every party in the assembly would have blindly supported the law. 

9) Given that scenario when the CM personally went to inaugurate the Jalikattu event he was sent back by the people and protesters of Alanganallur. 

10) When the government has done so much in terms of taking the central government into confidence, getting the ordinance passed and assuring that the law replacing the ordinance will be tabled in the assembly immediately after it convenes this week - not sure what more the protesters were expecting. Even the so called leaders called for the protest to be ended yesterday not sure what kept them going on with the protest. 

11) It is very easy for such a large gathering to turn violent as has happened this morning in terms of burning vehicles outside two police stations. 

12) This protest has run its course and should have ended when the ordinance was passed on Saturday. What happened to the CM yesterday would have been the last straw for the government. 

13) The police and the administration have done their part in terms of ensuring no violence happened in the last 7 days and also passing the law and post that they will definitely act to clear the protesters from the protest sites. 

14) Some elements among the protesters (or some goons who were not part of the protesters) will obviously react back with violence. 

In Conclusion

I personally feel that this protest is so misguided that the reasoning itself is all wrong. Jalikattu is not going to save the distressed farmers (the poor farmers committing suicide are not the ones who rear bulls), it is not going to save the breeds from extinction, it is not going to give you healthy milk. I am still surprised how so many educated people have been blindly fooled to believe all this will happen just by conducting Jalikattu. If the protest was to just uphold the age old culture, then it is a different thing. 

I would have been happy if the protesters had made just one request to government - provide funds and means to ensure the native breeds don't become extinct. That would have been a more meaningful thing to ask for than conducting Jalikattu, banning Peta, amending PCA and what not. 

Jallikattu - Surprised about the reason for protest - It is same as justifying female foeticide

Last few days Tamil Nadu has been seeing protest across the state in support of Jallikattu (Sallikattu - it is actually taking the coins that are tied to the horns of the bulls, that was the main objective of the sport). The main reason in support is that we will lose the entire breed of stud bulls. 

What many of the supporters argue is that the Stud bulls if Jallikattu is not held would be sent to slaughter house immediately after birth. This will lead to the extinction of the entire breed and then we have to import bulls for reproduction. 

The bulls were earlier used for farming and as bullock carts. With more mechanized farming and trucks being used for transportation the usage of bulls have reduced drastically. Now they are primarily used for reproduction. 

What I am surprised is that people are willing to accept this reason. This argument is same as justifying female foeticide. The reasons that were given for female foeticide were financial reasons - getting them married, giving dowry, etc. Now same is being given as the reason for not raising bulls - they don't give anything in return except help in reproduction whereas a cow gives milk. The main reason why people are using this line of argument is is to dramatize the whole issue. 

The main reason for giving away bulls for slaughtering is definitely not stopping Jallikattu it is because their usage in farming and bullock carts has stopped. Just saying that what was followed for long has to be followed even now will not get you so much support (people will talk about child marriage, sati, etc. as counter argument), only dramatization of the issue will ensure maximum support. 

What some people argue is that even if what Peta argued is true in terms of putting irritants into the eyes of bull, forcing bulls to drink alcohol, poking them with sharp substances during Jallikattu, the farmers are the ones who take care of them for the other 364 days. This is the most absurd argument that you can hear, why is it that the farmer who has been taking care of the bull for 364 days cannot properly care for them one more day? Also is this some kind of a black Friday for the farmers where they are able to turn profitable in a day? 

The other argument is that drinking the milk from a cow which mated with foreign bulls will cause cancer, why drink milk in the first place? Stop drinking milk if you think it will cause cancer. 

Just because someone supports Peta which spearheaded the campaign doesn't mean all Peta ambassadors should be maligned. What happened to some of the actors is completely unacceptable. 

I am not against Jallikattu. Like it happened couple of years back lay down proper rules which has to be followed. No irritants in the eyes of the bulls, no poking them with sharp equipment, no biting of the tails, no forcing alcohol down the throats of the bulls and only one person catching each bull at a time. Ensure all these and conduct Jallikattu. 

India at Rio - Review of my Predictions

Hockey - Wanted the men's team to get to the semis but they crashed out in the quarters. Women's not much was expected. No medals were expected none obtained. 

Tennis - No medals expected and none obtained. The mixed doubles team came close to the medals but lost out in the bronze medal match up. 

Swimming - The two Indians were not even close to any contention. 

Table Tennis - All lost in the first rounds. No medals were expected none obtained. 

Judo - Avtar Singh lost in the first round. No medals were expected none obtained. 

Golf - No medals were expected none obtained. Aditi was doing well on the first 2 days but lost out in the next 2. 

Athletics - Expected few to make it beyond the first round - Except Lalita Babar (who created a new National record) no one did that. Good to see the Manish finishing in 13th in 20km walk and Gopi and Ram finishing 25th and 26th in marathon with personal bests. Tintu Luka, Vikas Gowda, Renjith, relay teams have all been a disappointment. 

No medals were expected none obtained. 

Rowing : It was good to see Dattu Bhokanlal finish a credible 13th. No medals were expected none obtained. 

Badminton : Personally I didn't expect a medal. I expected the doubles team to finish in the group stage itself, which they did. I expected Srikanth to lose to Lin Dan which he did. I expected Saina to lose to Li Xieurui in the quarters but she lost out in the group stage due to injury. Sindhu was a surprise I thought she would lose out in the pre-quarters or quarters but she went all the way to the finals. 

No medals were expected but we obtained a silver. 

Archery : I was expecting at least 1 medal from the women's team or individual. Women's team lost to Russia in the quarters in a shoot off and all individuals expect Laxmirani Majhi came till the pre-quarters. Atanu Das was a the stand out performer who finished 5th in the qualifier round and he shot well in the subsequent rounds but ran into a very tough opponent in the pre-quarters. 

At least 1 medal was expected and none obtained. 

Boxing : Expected at least one medal from Shiva Thapa - He lost in the first round to the eventual Gold Medalist. Vikas lost to the silver medalist in the quarters and Manoj lost in the pre-quarters to the Gold Medalist. 

At least 1 medal was expected and none obtained. 

Wrestling : Was expecting Yogeshwar and Vinesh Phogat to win us medals. Vinesh got injured in the quarter finals and Yogeshwar didn't get going at all. Surprisingly Sakshi Malik won a medal. 

2 medals were expected and we obtained a bronze medal. 

Gymnastics : Expected Dipa Karmakar to get to the finals in the vault which she did. Didn't expect her to finish 4th in the finals. No medals were expected none obtained. 

Weightlifting : Mirabhai Chanu had an outside chance of a medal - All that she had to do was register the initial lift that she planned in the clean and jerk to get the bronze. But she didn't register any lift and lost out. I was completely wrong in mentioning that Sathish will have an outside chance, the field is in a different league all together. No medals were expected none obtained. 

Shooting : Shooting team let us down big time at Rio. Only Abhinav and Jitu got to the finals in one event each. Abhinav got out in the 4th position after a shoot off and Jitu finished last in the finals. Mairaj got close to getting into the semis, he was tied with 5 others but lost out in the shoot off for the spot in the semis. Expected Jitu to pick up 1 or 2 medals, Gagan/Abhinav to win in 10m air rifle, our women team to get one medal but nothing happened. 

Expected at least 3 medals (best case 6) but nothing obtained. 

Overall Performances 

We don't expect our athletes to beat a Michael Phelps or Usain Bolt but we expect them to at least meet their best performances if not beat it. Most of them failed to do that. 

Excellent

1) Obviously the medal winners - Sindhu and Sakshi Malik
2) Manish Rawat - Finishing 13th in the Mens 20km Walk
3) Lalita Babar - Creating a new National Record in the heats and finishing 10th in the finals (Her finals performance was not as good as per heats - this is the second time she is doing this)
4) Gopi Thanackal and Ram Kheta finishing 25th and 26th in the Mens marathon with Personal Bests
5) Dipa Karmakar finishing 4th in the finals

Good
1) Srikanth Kidambi did well to get to the quarters but lost out to Lin dan
2) Dattu Bhokanlal finishing 13th in Rowing
3) Atanu Das in Mens archery 


Average
1) Hockey Teams - Mens' team 
2) Mixed Doubles team - For all the politics they should have won a medal
3) Archery Womens both in team and individual - There needs to be something done about this team, they keep struggling in the big stage. 
4) Sathish bettering his Commonwealth games Gold medal winning lift 


Bad
1) Relay teams
2) Renjith Maheswary
3) Rest of the Athletics team who didn't meet their PBs
4) Wrestling team except Sakshi and Vinesh
5) Mens and womens Tennis Doubles Team
6) Shooting Team - Didn't expect such a poor performance from the team. 
7) Boxing Team
8) Mirabhai Chanu - not registering a lift. 

Didn't expect much from the Table Tennis, Judo, Women's hockey team, Swimming team so there is no point in ranking them. 

Shooting and Archery teams definitely need a dedicated sports psychologist full-time. 

India at Rio - what to look forward today - last day August 21st

Today is the last day of Olympics. It has been a disappointing games for us in terms of medals. Would our medals count increase today - there is hope with Yogeshwar Dutt. 

Athletics : There are 3 Indians in the fray for mens marathon event - Ram Kheta, Gopi Thanackal and Nitendra Singh Rawat. All are 2.15+ runners whereas the top guys do 2.03... It's a huge field with 155 runners and we should be happy with top 50 finish by all 3 or if they achieve their PBs. Starts at 6pm ist

Wrestling : Yogeshwar is participating in the 65kg category. The bronze medallist from London is our last medal hope. He starts his campaign against a Mangolian wrestler in the round of 32. Yogeshwar keeps saying he will come back with gold, lets hope for the same. By winning a medal today he will join Sushil as the second Indian with more than one individual Olympics medal. Starts at 5pm IST

India at Rio - August 19th and 20th summary

Golf : Aditi Ashok had 2 good days and 2 bad days. She had a 3 under par scores on the good days and 8 and 5 over on the bad days. With that she had to finish 41st. End of day 3 after a 8 over any chance of a medal was gone. It would have been a good experience for the 18 year old. Let's see how she performs on the tour. Seriously golf doesn't belong in the Olympics. 

Wrestling : Sandeep Tomar lost in the pre-quarters and with the Russian who defeated him losing the next round, there was no chance of repechage. 

Athletics : The most disappointing thing about this Olympics has been the athletics team. The relay teams both finished 7th in their heats. The mens team were later disqualified for baton change violations. Sandeep Kumar finished 35th in the 50km walk. Kushbir Kaur finished 54th in the women's 20km walk and the other walker Sapana did not cross 8km. 

Badminton : Sindhu played really well in the finals. However, Marin was in a different league. Sindhu won the first game after being down for the most part of it. In second and third games she fought well but could not match up to Marin. Marin has been playing really well last 2 years and it was wonderful to see her win the gold at the Olympics, even though personally I would have loved to see Sindhu win it. It was also the first time there were no Chinese amongst the medals.