India at Tokyo 2020 - Review of day 3 performance 25-July

Artistic Gymnastics - Pranati Nayak finished 79th out of 80 contestants in overall.  

Badminton - 

Sindhu beat Israel's Ksenia Polikarpova in straight games without much issue.  

Boxing 

MC Mary Kom beat Dominican Republic's GARCIA Miguelina HERNANDEZ 4-1. It was even stevens after first 2 rounds but Mary came out steonger in the third round to win  

Manish Kaushik lost to Britain's Luke McCormack 4-1. This was also a close match till second round. In the third round the British came out stronger to defeat Manish. 

Hockey - 

Indian were thrashed by Australia 7-1 in pool A match. It is better to forget about this match and move on.  

Rowing

Indian pair finished 3rd and qualified for the semi finals.  Great performance by Arjun and Arvind. Hoping they gonone step further 

Shooting -  

Yashaswini Deswal  and Manu Bhaker finished 12th and 13th in the qualifiers. Manu I heard had a malfunction with her pistol and lost sometime. She was for a large part of time in top 5 but missed out in the last few shots. Yashaswini started with a 94 in the first series and was finding it difficult to get into top 10. 

Divyansh Panwar and Deepak Kumar finished a poor 32nd and 26th. Both of them started poorly shooting a 102 in first series and couldn't get going. 

Mairaj and Angad finished with 71 and 73 end of 3rd round. Mairaj started with 25 and 24 in the first 2 rounds but dropped to a 22 in 3rd round and dropped down. Angad shot 24, 25 and 24 in the three rounds. Hope both have a better day tomorrow and make it to the finals. 

Sailing - 

Nethra Kumanan finished 33rd and 16th in the first two races. She was in top 4 in the second race mid way but dropped down.  

Vishnu Saravanan finished 14th in his first race. His second race got postponed to tomorrow.  

Let us hope they both have better days tomorrow and day after. 

Swimming - 

Maana patel finished 2nd in her 100m backstroke heat which was the slowest heat. She has a PB of 1.03:77 and swam a 1.05:20 today. She finished 39th out of 41 swimmers

Srihari was in the 3rd heat and swam a 54.31. He qualified for olympics swimming a 53.77 and if he had swam that he would have made it to the semis. Sadly not to be. 

Table Tennis -

Sathiyan was leading 3-1 against Hong Kong's Siu Hang Lam but sadly lost 4-3

Manika Batra took on Ukraine's Maragaryta Pesotska in another second round match. Manika came back from 0-2 and 2-3 to defeat the 20th seeded Ukrainian 4-3. 

Tennis 

7:30am Saina and Ankita lost their first round doubles match to the Ukraine Kichenok sisters in 3 sets. They won the first set 6-0 and were a break up in second but just blew it. The Ukranians ran 8 point lead in the third set tie break and the Indians clawed back to 8-8 but lost eventually.  

Overall a disappointing day. Rowers were the standout performance of the day

India at Tokyo 2020 - Review of day 2 performance 24-July

 

Archery - There was a change in the team as the management felt Pravin was shooting better than Atanu. They faced Chinese Taipei in the pre-quarters and they won that match 5-3. As mentioned yesterday,  due to the poor performance of the men in the ranking round, our team ranking also got affected.  We were against the eventual champions Korea in the quarters and we lost the match 6-2. We were completely outclassed by the Koreans. 

Rowing - Arvind Lal and Arjun finished 5th in thr Men's Light weight  double skulls heats. Given that their aim was to get a Top 12 finish, have to watch what they do in the Repachage round tomorrow.   Their timing was the 10th best in the field. 

Weightlifting - Mirabhai Chanu won the first medal for India and as expected got a silver.  Once the Chinese liftedba olymoic record 94kg in the snatch and tookna 7 kg lead over Chanu, it was going to be an uphill task for Chanu. Happy that she put to rest the misery of Rio 2016 where she didnt have even a single clean and jerk lift which caused her to miss out on a medal. 

Shooting - Elavenil and Apurvi both got knocked out in the qualification round itself. Elavenil finished 16th and Apurvi 36th. Around the 4th series Elavenil was as high at 11th but didn't finish well. Apurvi was down in mid 20s most of the time and finished a poor 36th. In the Air pistol event both Saurabh and Abhishek started poorly in the first round. Saurabh started shooting better from 2nd round and finished on top in the qualifiers. Abhishek started shooting better from the 3rd round. He was in top 5 till the last 3 shots and shot couple of 8s and that ruined his changes of making the finals and he ended up 17th. In the finals Saurabh starred very poorly and that ruined his changes. He was 8th at the end of first 10 shots but finished 7th and was the second to be knocked out in the finals. Overall a disappointing performance from our shooters today. 

Badminton - Sai Praneeth continued his recent poor form and lost to Israel's Misha Zilbermann tamely in straight sets ruining his changes of progressing beyond group stage. The surprise result was the doubles team of Rankireddy and Chirag beating the third seed Chinese Taipei Team in a hard fought match in 3 games. 

Hockey - Indian men started off their campaign with a victory over New Zealand.  New zealand had an early lead and India came back to lead 3-1 before conceding a goal in the 4th quarter. The Indian women played beautifully against the strong Dutch till mid of third quarter holding them 1-1 before losing 5-1. 

Judo - Shushila Likmabam lost to Hungary's Eva CSERNOVICZKI in her round of 32 match and ended her campaign.  

Table Tennis - Sharath Kamal and Manika Batra lost to the 3rd Seeded Chinese Taipei Team in straight games. The Taipei team was way too strong for the Indian pair. 

Manika Batra defeated British HO Tin-Tin in straight games. Even though Manika gave 4-5 point lead in 3rd and 4th games she was strong for the Britisher. 

Suhirtha defeated Sweden's Linda Bergstroem 4-3. The match was going back and forth till the last game where Suhirtha came out on top. 

Tennis - Sumit Nagal defeated Denis Istomin in 3 

Boxing - Vikas was defeated by Japan's Sewonrets Quincy Mensah OKAZAWA in an unanimous decision 5-0.  Vikas was completely out played by the Japanese boxer. Vikas had no clue against the Japanese boxer. I was personally expecting much from the experienced Vikas but he lost tamely. 

My tryst with covid - luckily was uneventful...

The onset 

On the afternoon of 10th of September I started having fever. I took a paracetamol tablet on the night of 10th... fever reduced... Again the next day morning fever crossed 101 and I took paracetamol on 11th morning and night. After I took the tablet fever reduced but to come back after few hours. 

I started isolating myself from 10th itself. My wife alone used to come inside the room, she was thinking I was over reacting... 

On the 12th morning my temperature reduced to normal levels. I was still isolating myself and My wife said you get tested and get out of the room (she felt it was normal fever). I had body pain from 11th and I thought it was a normal body pain we get during viral fever. From 11th I started having mild cold also. 

Testing

Decided that we have nothing to lose by getting tested. I called up covid helpline asking if there are any fever clinics being held in my area on that day. They asked me to check with corporation helpline. I was suggested to go to the nearest Primary health center and that till 3pm doctors will be there.  I drove down to the PHC and told them my symptoms. They asked if I want to take covid test and I said yes. My temperature was only 97.4 when I went there. They didn't even ask why I should get tested and just took my address and phone number and took sample (nasal and throat swabs). 

They said result will come only after 2 days. That is the only disadvantage of getting tested at the government facilities. Delay in the results.. However, it is free. They do share results even if it's negative. Earlier they used to call only if you are positive. 

They also gave me medication for fever, cold and some multivitamins. Even the medicines were free. 

I continued to self isolate and my wife alone was coming into my room. My mother and kids used to stay outside the room. I was given food from outside and I was washing those utensils and letting them dry in sunlight. 

One thing I never miss are the F1 races. Sadly had to stay inside the room and follow only online updates. Missed watching my favorite Kimi score his first points of the season. 

Results Day

Monday morning (14th) I was woken up by a call from Chennai corporation. They asked if I had given covid test recently and I said yes and they asked where is my house location. I asked tell me the results first. They said it has come positive. Even though we read up a lot we are always scrambling as to what to do when it hits us. 

The local ward sanitation inspector called up and checked what all I did the previous week and if I was going to work. I said I used to go for grocery shopping alone. That's all the effort on contract tracing. 

My first worry was about my mom, who is 69 and has other comorbidies. I was really worried. I decided to get all other family members immediately tested. This time didn't want to wait 2 days so called up a private lab and they arranged for a home pick up for all of them. 

My wife had already started for work when the results came. Called her once she reached her work place and asked her to come back home. She got back home immediately. She started developing fever in the afternoon. Was even more worried about my mom. 

One of my neighbors had tested positive in May and he got treated at Soorya hospital in Vadapalani. Asked him to refer to the doctor and he spoke to the doctor and I drove down to the hospital. They took CT scan and luckily it was a mild infection and they gave me a score of 5/40 (which is the lowest). I was put on 2 antibiotics including Azithromycin for 5 days. Doctor asked me to come back after 3 days. Told me I can stay in home quarantine. 

Around 3pm that afternoon the private lab person came and took samples for the others in the family. I was told results will come around midnight. Corporation officials called and said they can arrange for tests for others but I told them I didn't want to wait for 2 days for them so went ahead with the tests. It costed 3500 per person.

Wife started isolating herself in another room and kids were staying in my mother's room. 

By 14th my body pain also reduced and I was only having a mild cold. Wife started having cold from night. I was really worried. 

Agonizing wait continued for the results of the test for family members. 

Around midnight got results for mom and kids and they all tested negative. It was huge relief that my mom was negative. 

Wife's result alone didn't come along with it. I was told the tests are still going on. After waiting for another 40 minutes got wife's results and she tested positive. Corporation staff also called in the morning to inform us about the results. For my wife they got details of her work place as she was working. However, not sure if they reached out to her colleagues. 

With 2 members in the family tested positive didn't want to risk others contacting from both of us. Decided it is better to send them to my sister's place. Sister came in the morning and took them to their place. There also they were quarantined in 1 room for a week. 

After mom and kids left took wife to the same hospital. She also got a CT scan done. She also got the same score of 5/40 and was prescribed same medication. My mom had cooked food for the day before she left and we managed with that for the day. 

The Scare

Got a call from my sister at 4am on 16th stating that my 7 year old daughter is having fever for the last 1 hour. I had asked my mom to pack paracetamol syrup and cough syrup for kids when she went to my sister's place but in all the hurry she missed it. Called up my cousin and asked him to handover paracetamol at my sister's house immediately. Luckily he had an unopened bottle with him which he immediately handed over. He is someone I can call up for anything anytime. 

She continued to run a temperature of 99+ even after paracetamol. I was worried again about my mom. Asked my sister to keep my daughter in a separate room away from my mom. It was becoming a mess for my sister. 

I called up the same doctor again he asked me to bring my daughter and we can do a CT scan,  if required. Asked my sister to bring my daughter directly to the hospital and I again went for the 3rd day in a row to the same hospital. Decided that if there are issues will bring daughter to my house and if things are normal she will return to my sister's place. 

Doctor checked and said her lungs are clear so she wouldn't even require a CT scan. That was a huge relief. The doctor put her on Azithromycin, paracetamol and zinc supplements. Heard from others that all doctors are giving Azithromycin by default. 

She didn't have fever when we we reached the hospital. She became normal late afternoon on the same day. That was a huge relief for us. 

The Recovery

Wife and I started the medication that was prescribed and we also added zinc and vitamin c supplements. We were also doing salt water gargling and steaming. I was having mild cold and wife was coughing a bit. Wife also gave me either lemon and ginger water or kabasara kudineer for morning and milk with turmeric and pepper in the evening. 

The corporation folks called us twice daily, once for me and once for my wife. They will check if everything is fine and also to check if we required any help. On the first day they said we had discard used masks only in the yellow covers. When I told them that we hadn't received any yellow covers, they ensured it was delivered to us the next day. They also checked if we had oximeter, I had purchased one few days back and it came handy. 

When my neighbor was tested positive we had a huge board outside our apartment complex. However for us they just stuck a small poster outside my flat. One for me and one for my wife. 

Corporation folks also came and sprayed disinfectant twice (once for me and once for my wife). They did it in all the common areas. I didn't want to allow anyone inside so they sprayed outside my flats and in common areas. 

Corporation Staff spraying disinfectant and the poster outside my flat

There was also a dedicated volunteer whose number was given to us and was told that they will help in getting anything for us. I preferred calling my cousin instead and he got me whatever I wanted. 

I continued to have mild cold and wife had mild cough. Other than that we were normal. 

Since I was already working from home I started working from 15th itself. However, I was taking it light. Shutdown by 6pm for the first week and taking only important calls after 6pm. Second week was almost back to normal.

Went back to the hospital for review on 18th. Doctor stopped the antibiotics after initial 5 days and just gave us multivitamins and antiallergic medication. Wife alone was asked to continue cough syrup as she still had cough. He asked us to come back after a week and said we will do a antibody test.  

Initially we thought we will not cook and order food but later decided it's not healthy and wife started cooking. We still ordered food once in a while. My aunt gave us huge quantities of dosa batter twice which came in very handy. We also ordered huge quantities of fruits especially once with vitamin c. Whatever we ordered was left outside my flats and we picked it up after the delivery agent left. 

Neighbors were kind enough to offer food for us but since both of us were almost normal we didn't want to bother them. 

Even though me and my wife were the only ones at home, we restricted ourselves to one bedroom and kitchen. We kept other rooms locked up. We also used very limited utensils. We only opened the door once in the morning to pick up milk and paper and maybe if there are any deliveries. Otherwise we were in one room but were maintaining social distancing.

Things became a routine and the next one week flew away. Amazon prime also helped, we were both watching some movie or other during evenings. My cold also went away. Wife alone had a bit of cough. While speaking to another doctor he informed that most patients develop complications if they have vitamin d deficiency. Wife was deficient the last time we checked and he suggested that even my wife's cough could be due to that. Immediately got vitamin d supplements and started taking it. 

My boss was also positive around the same time as me and we were exchanging notes. He had a bit more severe infection but he continued to stay at home and was getting treated. 

The main issue was being away from the kids especially for my wife as it was the first time she was away from them. Only solace was the regular video calls. My kids used to give detailed updated to their mom about their online classes and what food they had etc. To me my daughter had only one question daily - appa when can I come back home. It was very difficult to answer that question for me. Telling her to be away from home was very difficult for me. 

Antibody Test

We went back to the hospital on 25th for the review. It was the 16th day from the onset of fever for me and 12th day for my wife so wife was asked to wait till she completes 14 days to get tested. Doctor asked to give the blood samples and asked to come back after the results come in the evening. Gave samples and came back home. Another day of agonizing wait. Went back to hospital in the evening for the results. I had started developing enough antibodies. Even though he suggested that we can bring back the family after wife completes 14 days we didn't want to risk it. So one more week of being away from kids. 

He said I can be normal going forward. He also suggested that wife can be normal after she completes 14 days. Wife asked if I should be away from her but doctor said he has antibodies so he need not worry. Asked if we need to do anything he said nothing. All medications are stopped and for wife alone he said we can continue cough syrup, if required. 

Wife's cough also started reducing from 24th and she became almost normal from 28th. 

We got the house and car disinfected on 3rd. Washed all utensils that we used and dried everything in the sun. Kids came back home on the evening of 3rd of October, ending almost 3 weeks of separation. 

Key Lessons

• Even though we feel we are prepared by reading about the disease, when we actually get the disease you are left scrambling(This list may help you)
• Symptoms vary from person to person - I had 1.5 days fever and mild cold for a few days, wife had 1 day fever and cough for a few days, one of my relative had mainly diarrhea.. While losing sense of smell and taste is a definite symptom, not everyone loses them. Me and wife never lost the sense of smell and taste
• I was always wearing mask when I stepped out of the house, washed my hands when I came back home and used sanitizers in every shop that I stepped in. Restricted my outing to basic necessities. Even then I got infected. I can say all those saved me for 6 months. I have no clue of how and where I got infected
• Identify private labs who can come and take test for your family members in case you test positive
• Identify which hospital and doctor you will go to in case you test positive. Everyone who test positive will start with mild symptoms. This is something that most hospitals can definitely take care as the protocols are pretty standard
• In case you develop complications decide which hospital you would want to get admitted to. I heard government hospitals care is very good for covid especially Omandurar
• Most large private hospitals straight away say that they don't have vacancies in covid wards. In case you prefer private hospitals, identify contacts who can help in getting beds 
• In case you need hospitalization be prepared to spend minimum of 2-3 lakhs. Even if you don't develop complications and decide home isolation is not possible most hospitals charge that much. Even if you have Insurance,  charges towards the masks, PPE for doctors are not claimable with most insurance products - that itself will be minimum 25-30% of the overall expense
• Always have someone who you call up for help at any point of time either a friend, neighbor or relative who lives nearby. While we can get anything delivered to home we may need something in the middle of the night
• Situation in terms of cases is much higher than what we feel. I used to see at least 3-4 other patients waiting for the doctor during the 10-15 minutes I was at the hospital
• You feel hungry a lot. Always have something in your isolation room to snack on
• Oxygen support is very common for many patients. My brother-in-law was positive before us and he was given oxygen support for a couple of days 
• In case you develop any complications most doctors will put you through all approved medical interventions - remdisivier, dexamethasone, etc., not worrying about immediate side effects, as their only concern is to avoid cytokine storm
• There were many patients on ventilator support or oxygen support and my doctor was casual about it and only thing that they were keen on is weening away the patients from ventilator
• Treatment protocols are highly reactive as the doctors are still learning about the disease. In case you have mild symptoms they start with mild antibiotics and paracetamol. They keep adding oxygen support, remdisivier and steriods, if complications develop
• Chennai corporation was diligent in checking on us daily 
• One important lesson if anyone is self isolating before test, have them wear mask full time and anyone interacting with them should also wear mask. Maybe my wife would not have got infected if both of us wore masks 
• Take Vitamin D supplements as there are more studies that people are developing complications if they are Vitamin D deficient. You have nothing to lose
• Lastly don't be worried about the disease, most of us will only have a mild infection. Even if there are complications most of us will get cured with very little time in the hospital

Stay safe

Rajnikanth's Entry to Politics - Short take

What was talked about from mid 90's is finally happening in the end of 2017. Rajnikanth has decided to enter politics by forming a separate party and has announced that he will face the assembly elections whenever they happen next. To an extent he also clarified why he took so long to make this decision. Whether it is convincing enough is another matter.

He claims he was pushed to this decision based on the happenings in the last one year. He has also promised that if he cannot deliver on poll promises he will resign in 3 years.

He made some right noises that he is more about ensuring corrupt free government, with people more frustrated with the levels of corruption this statement would be well received.

Very first mistake according to me is - claiming that he will not do anything till party is formed at the right time before assembly elections. Already people are bit irritated that he took this long to take this decision and even now if it's not active from day one not sure how well that will be received.

Even though I personally feel this is a very long overdue decision, not sure how well he will be effective and accepted as a leader.

Given the fact that Jayalithaa and Karunanidhi are not active and the fact that Stalin was not able to capitalize on the issues in Admk is a clear indication that the people of Tamil Nadu are looking for options. Will Rajnikanth be able to fill the void left by the two leaders ? - Only time will tell.

Wishing him well in his new journey. 

RK Nagar Elections - What's at Stake

RK Nagar elections are scheduled for 21st December and this is already more than 6 months delayed. (Any seat cannot be vacant for more than 6 months). EC declared that the EPS-OPS gang will keep the 2 leaves symbol and the next day announced the election date. 

EC taking so long to decide on who gets this and the delayed bye-elections doesn't augur well to project their so called independence. 

Even though we had two independents who were getting more media coverage - Vishal and Deepa - don't think they had any chance in the elections. Vishal might have got few votes because of him being a Telugu and Deepa might have got few votes because of sympathy for Jayalalithaa but they had no chance of winning any elections. 

The problem for any leader, is the people surrounding them. Case in point is Deepa, she was over hyped by the people around her and she thought she is the reincarnation of Jayalalithaa. Initially OPS group (in February during the initial revolt against Sasi clan) also fell for the hype but they realized their mistake and started distancing from her. Now with her nomination papers also rejected its time to put her to political oblivion. Vishal's case may play out differently, we will wait and watch. 

Coming to the key players and what's at stake for each of them. 

Starting with DMK - This is a must win situation for Stalin. It is a test of his leadership. With no Jayalalithaa ADMK is doesn't have the same magic. ADMK still has the government machinery but losing this election will be a huge disgrace for Stalin. The party, especially his family which is not happy with his leadership will start revolting and it will be very difficult for Stalin to manage them if he loses this election. With VCK support (which has considerable backing in north madras) their chances have increased. 

EPS - OPS - Madhusudhanan their candidate, is the presidium chairman of the party. He is a local of the constituency and has good cadre backing. However, EPS and OPS merger is coming apart at the seams and any sabotage from within will be a complete disaster for his chances. Losing this election might be a loss of face for the party, I don't think they would mind much. 

TTV -  There is so much hatred among people for the Sasi clan. The main objective of TTV is not win the election but to get at least 1 vote more than Madhusudhanan. His main trump card will be money power, which is what they tried in April also. In case he doesn't get more votes than Madhusudhanan, it will become more difficult to hold on to the few leaders he has now. They will all switch to the other side, already few jumped ship once the symbol went to the other side. In case he gets more seats than Madhusudhanan, he will use that to position his group as the real ADMK, which will be a disaster for EPS-OPS gang. 

All in all Stalin has more to lose than anyone else. The fight between TTV and Madhusudhanan is more about who gets more seats than the other. 

PS : There is another party BJP, less said about them better. No way they will even get their deposit back. 

New Actor Politicians of TN - What 1 year has done to TN Politics

Post September 22nd of last year (It is exactly 1 year since JJ was admitted in Apollo) things have changed drastically in TN politics. Jayalalithaa spent around 75 days in the hospital before passing away on December 5th of 2016. The other veteran of TN politics, Karunanidhi is sick and is completely out of action. 

ADMK is in doldrums and there is considerable hate against the Sasi clan among the people. Feb 7th when OPS revolted against Sasi there was little bit of hope but with his inability to pull more MLAs into his side that also fizzled out. Now with EPS being the CM and OPS merging back things are back to square one for the party. EPS and OPS need some strong backing to take on the clan and that they are currently getting from BJP which hopes to make a headway into TN. 

DMK is a bit clueless without MK. Stalin is not able to make a decisive move on bringing down the government. Things would be completely different if MK was still active. DMK still is in a much better situation that ADMK.

While TN was expecting and waiting for 22 years for Rajnikanth to enter politics looks like his contemporary Kamal will enter politics before him. 

Rajni has been giving mixed signals for last 22 years, his golden opportunity was in 1996. To me that blame should also go the late PM PVN Rao who should have backed him wholeheartedly and that would have also ensured Congress at least managed it's vote bank if note increased the same. They had around 15% vote back then. In 1996 with his backing TMC and Congress rode on the anti-incumbency that Jayalalithaa faced. She was decimated even losing her own seat. In 2004 he gave a statement opposing PMK which was part of the DMK Congress alliance, but they won all seats that they contested. That would have been clear indicator for Rajni that his pull among the people was waning. There is also a popular view that he makes political statements before release of his movies. 

In July of this year he met with his fans and has asked them to be ready and they will be called when there is war. We will have to see if he really takes the plunge this time. 

Kamal on the other hand was harassed during the release of his Viswaroopam movie. That anger against Sasi clan and JJ is also there. With the passing away of Jaya that anger is coming out in the open. He is making all right noises in terms of his tapping into popular sentiments like NEET opposition, Corruption, etc.

With the two main leaders of the two main parties in TN out of action, there is definite political vacuum. This is what the likes of Rajni, Kamal and also BJP want to occupy. 

Let us look at what they can accomplish in electoral politics

Rajni - I am still not convinced if he will really enter politics. Even if he enters, he doesn't have the same popularity which he had in 1996. His health and age will also be against him. In case he really enters, he can at best get 10-15% of the votes which will not help him win many seats to be a serious contender. He will slowly go the Vijayakanth way. 

Kamal - He is an elitist. I am really not sure how he will be able to connect with general public. Some people are joking that people cannot understand his tweets, how are they going to understand his policies. Seriously he has met Kerala CM and Delhi CM and claiming that all these are learning process. Post his meeting with Kejriwal the statements indicate he might move closer towards AAP. AAP has not had any impact in TN so not sure what Kamal can do to them. Kejriwal is also someone who is strong headed person and Kamal is also similar in character, so both of them working together would also be very difficult. Communists are not an option at all. Starting his own party he will not get more than 2-3% vote share. 

I don't think both coming together and forming a party would also change things drastically. They can at best become the second largest party in the coming elections. 

BJP - There is complete hatred among the people for the saffron party, all their efforts to occupy the space of ADMK is coming to naught. NEET, Cauvery, Hindi, Demon, GST, Petrol there are so many things for which people are angry about BJP. It is very difficult for them to make any entry, their best hope is tag along with ADMK and win few seats. 

DMK should move quickly to ensure the current government falls and elections are held. They will sweep the elections if they are held any time soon. I don't think they would want to risk allowing the ADMK the full term. We don't know what can happen in those 3.5 years. 

ADMK Saga - Trying to answer few questions

With the two factions of the ADMK merging together yesterday, there are quite a few questions that remain. Trying to answer them

1) What is BJP trying to do by merging these two factions? 
2) What is it that OPS faction going to gain from this merger?
3) What is it that the EPS faction going to gain from this merger? 
4) Is the Sasi clan completely out of the equation? 
5) Who gains in the overall scheme of things? 

Background:

When JJ was admitted to the Apollo hospitals in September, Panneerselvam was made to take over her responsibilities. When she eventually passed away on December 5th Panneerselvam took over the government and Sasikala became the General Secretary of the party. OPS's gaining popularity didn't go well with the Sasikala clan and they decided to step in. OPS resigned and then revolted against the clan. The Governor played along and didn't swear Sasikala in as the CM even though she had the majority. Sasikala was convicted in the DA case and went to jail, she appointed her dummy EPS as the CM. 

Come April when the RK Nagar by-election was to be held TTV Dhinakaran decided to contest and was keen to take over the CM post. Obviously once in power no one wants to let go, which was the first trigger for EPS. The elections were cancelled due to large scale bribing of voters and TTV also went to jail for the trying to bribe the EC for a favorable verdict in the Party symbol case. 

Once TTV was out of picture EPS consolidated his position among the party MLAs and took control of the government. OPS who revolted against the clan was slowly becoming irrelevant. He was losing hold of the small group of MLAs that he had. OPS was originally backed by BJP hoping that he would be able to break the MLAs but the clan was too smart for that. 

It is interesting game of multiple double crosses and interesting twists.. 
First was OPS revolting against the clan with support from BJP 
Then came the EPS revolting against the clan that also with support from BJP 
Then now TTV stumping the post merger euphoria with his 19 MLAs withdrawing support to the government. 

Coming to the questions that we wanted to answer at the beginning of the post 

What is BJP trying to do by merging these two factions? 

BJP cannot repeat the 2014 success of absolute majority, that is the main issue that they want to address. That is the reason behind Nitish coming out of the mahagadbhandan. That is the reason they want to align with ADMK. However, they also don't want to be seen aligning with the clan. Their hope is that with the merged entity ADMK will be able to win many seats and by aligning with them they will get few seats in TN. 

ADMK will definitely lose badly in the next parliament and assembly election. When things are so obvious not sure why BJP is hell bent on aligning with ADMK, maybe they thought few seats are better than nothing. DMK is not a party which hadn't aligned with BJP earlier, so it wouldn't have been difficult to get them on board, not sure why they didn't try it. All that they need are few raids and DMK will come around. 

What is it that the OPS faction going to gain from this merger ?

OPS was the star back in February when he revolted and with Sasi being convicted many had hoped that MLAs will move towards him. That didn't happen. EPS became stronger and slowly OPS was being irrelevant. There were also rumors that some of his MLAs were willing to move to EPS gang. Can't question them also, they want to enjoy power when it lasts. He merger only to ensure he stays relevant but becoming a Deputy CM and becoming the chief convener of the co-ordination committee of the party, not sure if he can continue to be relevant. Only saving grace was the acceptance of his two demands of sidelining the clan and ordering an inquiry into JJ's death, those two he can claim as face saver. 

What is it that the EPS faction going to gain from this merger? 

EPS has established himself as the leader of the government and has backing of most MLAs. One big advantage he has is the caste backing and the fact that western TN where he is from and where his caste is predominant has been voting ADMK in bulk in the last few elections. He can be the CM till TTV revolts and he has complete backing of BJP now that he has established himself as the leader. Now he also has OPS on his side who was seen as someone with a clean image. 

Is the Sasi clan completely out of the equation? 

I would love to say so, but don't think so. They are well entrenched in the party and in the administration. There are many people from their caste who are present in all levels in the government and bureaucracy. That being the case they can undermine anyone. Only way they can be controlled is if Modi conducts more raids on the gang, which will happen. I won't be surprised if the 19 MLAs who are supporting the clan are targeted. Hearing that they are already packed off to some resort to ensure that Sasikala is not removed from the party. Are they ready to take on the center and bring down the government? They must have something up their sleeve to do that, not sure what that is. 

Who gains in the overall scheme of things? 

ADMK with a leader like MGR or JJ is completely different from the ADMK run by this motley crew. With the merger, maybe the hardcore party members will vote for ADMK but the general public is not going to vote for ADMK or their alliance which in this case will be BJP. DMK will be the only gainer in this whole mess. They are also aware of that, that is the reason they don't want to be seen as opportunistic in bringing down the government. 

Things are changing so fast, the packing off of the TTV supporting MLAs happened after I started this blog. Stalin has asked Governor to ask EPS to prove his majority. Things are changing so fast. Interesting times ahead. 

Post Conviction Surprise and the short lived happiness - OPS vs VKS

Sasikala, Sudhakaran and Elavarasi were convicted by the Supreme Court this morning. 

The OPS camp was expecting that the MLAs will move out of the resort and support him. At least that is the reading many people had. It still stays at 11 including OPS. 

It is no surprise that Sasikala has propped up Edapadi Palanisamy as her proxy. It was expected that someone will be propped up and it is Edapadi who was even talked about immediately after Jaya's death. 

The real surprise in all this is that the MLAs have still stayed with Sasikala. When Jaya was alive it was a completely different case, it is a huge surprise that MLAs are staying with Sasikala. Not really sure what is the hold that she has on the entire MLAs. Is it that the many of them were selected by her as candidates which is the reason for this? 

The governor has to either accept Edapadi's claim and swear him in or give OPS also an opportunity to prove his majority. For that OPS has to prove that he has more MLAs than the 11. 

OPS camp has to move aggressively in convincing the MLAs to move to his side, otherwise his game is over. 

The general public were against not just Sasikala but her entire clan. With Edapadi being her proxy the government will be completely run by her family. 

People were happy with the verdict this morning but with the MLAs supporting Sasikala's proxy and their happiness looks to be short lived. 

Tamil Nadu politics - OPS Vs VKS - Options and way forward

Background : 

December 5th or for that matter September 22nd changed the face of politics in Tamil Nadu. With Jayalalithaa being admitted in hospital and her subsequent demise things took a dramatic change in ADMK and Tamil Nadu politics. 

Going by the statements made by OPS recently, Sasikala requested him to take over the CM position as he had been 2 time CM and anyone else would cause the trouble in the party leading to a split in the party. The other side has not issued any denial so far at least. 

OPS had been performing well especially his handling of the Vardah cyclone, to a large extent the jalikattu protest (except the last day violence), the way he went to AP to speak to Chandrababu Naidu to ensure water is released were all very good. He was also very accessible to all especially the officials and things were going in the right direction. 

Also I was personally happy to see the ruling party and opposition talking to each other in a civilized manner (funnily Sasikala quoted that as the reason for sacking OPS). 

Sasikala took over the position of General secretary in late December and it was well known that she will also want to take over as CM eventually. When she called for the legislative party meeting on 5th of February it was a forgone conclusion that she will get elected as the CM. As expected the party MLAs selected her as the CM. Panneerselvam submitted his resignation and also proposed her name for the position of leader of the Legislative party and eventually the CM. 

Even though there was absolutely no public or cadre support for Sasikala people were more or less resigned to the fact that she is the CM. What no one expected was what happened on 7th of February when the caretaker CM went to Marina and sat on a meditation in front of Jayalalithaa's memorial. 

The moment he uttered the sentence that they were irritated by his good work it became apparent that the party is splitting. It was funny to see some of the party spokespeople who were on show during his meditation stating that "Annan" is praying to amma that everything should go fine and immediately after his press conference calling him a traitor. 

Governor's dilemma

Governor going to Delhi and then Mumbai for a few days was not right when things were happening in Chennai. Governor is also being careful in ensuring no one legally questions him. The following actions prove that 

1) He accepted OPS's resignation within a day even though his actions were clear that he was in no hurry to swear in Sasikala. 
2) Denied the secret note he sent to Home ministry - even though he wanted to wait till the DA case verdict is out which is what he had apparently quoted in that said note. To ensure he is not questioned in the courts, he quickly issued a denial about such a note
3) Not allowing parading of MLAs - the Sasikala group was keen to parade the MLAs which OPS also requested him not to allow

Options and way forward 


For OPS

All in all OPS has nothing much to lose and has already gained a lot. He has become a true hero from being termed the mixture mama that is a huge. There is a huge groundswell of support for him and whether he will be able to win an election with that is a different question, but at least for now the general public seem to favor him over Sasikala.

• He at present has only 7 MLAs and with most of them lodged (don't want to use the term locked up) in the private resort in ECR the number can at best go up to 10 immediately. 
• I believe that if his request to withdraw his resignation was legally tenable the governor would have allowed that. 
• In case the SC acquits Sasikala in the DA case, his aim would be to get at least 20+ MLAs which will ensure the Sasikala's side doesn't get to rule the state (this is also true in case she gets convicted and appoints a proxy)
• The best case scenario that OPS would be hoping for is SC convicting Sasikala and the majority MLAs move over to his side. 
• In case SC convicts Sasikala and she would nominate some other proxy and try to rule from inside the jail or through the so called mannargudi mafia. 
• The worst case scenario for his is Sasikala is acquitted and whoever are with him currently desert him. He would have a tough time to keep his political career alive then. 

For Sasikala

With governor having no inclination to swear her in as the CM, her options are limited. Till date she has been able to maintain most of her flock together. She has more to lose than gain. 

• In case she gets convicted in the DA case, she will try to appoint a proxy as CM. Having seen OPS someone who is known not to have high ambitions revolt she would be very worried about appointing anyone to the post of CM, she might go with a safe option of someone from the family which might also cause more trouble for her. 
• Her best case scenario is the get acquitted in the DA case and ensure she continues to keep her flock of MLAs intact. 
• In case she loses more than 20 MLAs (either way the verdict goes) she can as well bid goodbye to her political ambitions as there too much hatred for her and her family among the general public and also the party cadres. 

For Governor

Having decided to wait for the DA case verdict to be out and playing it safe legally so far his options are pretty simple unless things take a dramatic change in terms of the number of MLAs supporting both groups. 

• In case of conviction request ADMK to select a new leader 
• In case of an acquittal swear in Sasikala
• In case the MLA supporting both groups change drastically (don't think that will happen unless there is a conviction) will be the most interesting option. Will he go for a composite floor test? Or ask either of the two groups to prove the majority? To me personally he will go with Sasikala group or go for a composite floor test as he has so far not allowed OPS to withdraw his resignation and if he was ok with that option he could have done so already. (In the said note that he sent to home ministry he has not mentioned anything about withdrawal and called OPS as only the caretaker CM.) 

Side notes

• It was pathetic to see some of the ministers in such inebriated state, if you are so drunk stay at home or at least don't talk in front of the press.  
• The cops are playing it safe and not taking any directions from either side. Which is expected, but what was really surprising to see is they didn't even act when the press were attacked yesterday. 
• OPS's house is so very accessible and there were more curious crowd trying to see what is happening there. I could see people going for their evening walks just drop by to see what's happening. 
• There are also lots of women supporters showing up at OPS's house.
• There is definite backing from central government for OPS. They would also want to ensure the party stay together as they need ADMK support during the President election. It would be interesting to see how central government acts in case Sasikala gets acquitted. 
• I would also be interested to see what will happen to all this public support that OPS has now in case there is an acquittal. 

For people checking for updates very hours or minutes, don't expect anything to happen till the verdict is out. The court has already gone back on its words that they will issue the verdict within a week. Hope they issue the verdict tomorrow (02/14) at least.  

All in all interesting times ahead for a political junkie like me.