Latest Prediction for 2014 elections

Uttar Pradesh
BJP - 35
Congress - 8
SP - 20
BSP - 17

BJP will find it very difficult to cross the 35 mark as their organization structure fell apart after being out of power for nearly 2 decades. Even if they have support not sure if they can convert it to votes. This in itself is a tall order considering the fact that they have only 47 MLAs (12%).

Assam

One of the states where every pollster is agreeing that Congress will do well

Congress - 10
BJP + - 3

Punjab

Congress - 8
BJP + - 5

SAD is having a huge anti incumbency and that should really benefit Congress and the fact that they had some strong candidates also helps.

Tamil Nadu

BJP+ - 3
ADMK - 26
DMK - 10

Even though the alliance that BJP had formed looks formidable on paper they cannot win many seats. 3 is the max that they can win.

Andhra Pradesh

Congress messed up big time with the Telengana and the alliance/merger with TRS. However, there will be goodwill in the Telengana region which will help them win few seats.

Congress - 12
YSRC - 10
BJP + TDP - 12
TRS - 8

Chattisgarh

Raman Singh scrapped through in the assembly. He will do slightly better in the LS

BJP - 7
Congress - 4

Bihar

BJP - 10
LJP - 2
RJD - 10
Congress - 5
JDU - 13

Even though people are saying JDU will have huge reversals don't think that will happen. With a 3 way contest expect all 3 combos to get almost equal seats. BJP best case can get 3 more seats

Haryana

Vadra factor will play here.

BJP - 6
Congress - 4

INLD will get some of the anti incumbency votes. BJP at best can get 1 more seat. AAP can also play a spoiler here for BJP

Karnataka

Congress - 20
BJP - 6
JDS - 2

Best case for BJP is to get 4 more seats.

Kerala

LDF is still in ruins which only helps UDF

UDF - 14
LDF - 6

Odisha

BJD - 15
BJP - 4
Congress - 2

Gujarat

BJP - 22
Congress - 4

Gujarat has to vote for Modi. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the 4 seats that Congress wins is Gandhinagar, Modi is known for such things.

Maharashtra

BJP - 12
Congress - 14
SS - 10
NCP - 12

I strongly feel that MNS will still play the spoiler for the SS + BJP alliance even though they are primarily fighting only the SS. Best case for BJP is to win 5 more seats

Madhya Pradesh

Some strong candidates will ensure that Congress gets to double digits.

BJP - 19
Congress - 10

BJP can at best get 3 more seats

Rajasthan

This will be huge win for BJP like the assembly elections

BJP - 20
Congress - 5

Delhi

AAP - 2
Congress - 2
BJP - 3

Goa

BJP - 2

J&K

PDP - 1
Congress - 3
NC - 2

Himachal

Slogans like Dil Mange more will not work here

BJP - 2
Congress - 2

Uttarakhand

BJP - 2
Congress - 3

The rehabilitation post the floods will cause damage to Congress. BJP can win 1 more seat at best case

Tirupura

Left - 2

Sikkim

Congress - 1

Nagaland 

BJP+ - 1

Mizoram

Congress - 1

Meghalaya

Congress - 2

Manipur

Congress - 2

Arunachal 

Congress - 2

Union Territories

Congress - 3
BJP - 3

West Bengal

TMC - 25
Left - 12
Congress - 5

Jharkhand

BJP - 5
Congress - 6
RJD - 1
JMM - 2

BJP at best can win 2 more seats

Total
BJP+SS+SAD+TDP+LJP = 195
Congress+NC+RJD+NCP+JMM = 179
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Left - 20
DMK - 10
ADMK - 26
TMC - 25
YSRC - 10
JDU - 13
JDS - 2
BJD - 15
TRS - 8
AAP - 2
PDP - 1

How can BJP get to power?
BJP+ at best can add another 15 seats which will take it to 210 seats.

Another 62 -
TMC is completely ruled out with the recent utterances by TMC and BJP
SP is also ruled out
BSP is possible ally which will give them 17 seats
JDU and JDS are ruled out
Left is completely ruled out
BJD is a possible ally which will give another 15 seats
YSRC/TRS cannot be an ally as long as TDP is there in NDA
PDP is a possible ally with 1 more seat
Either ADMK or DMK could be a possible ally which will give them 25 or 10 seats.

Even then they will not be able to reach 272 unless they get few from the UPA like NCP or JMM or RLD. RJD and NC won't move over to NDA

Elections Update - Back after a break

Back after a short hiatus. Things have been pretty hectic at work. 

Tamil Nadu

The new front in TN (NDA) on paper might look strong. However, all key parties in it namely DMDK, PMK, MDMK are all on the decline. On paper people might claim that they have 22% vote shore but that was 5 years back. Things have changed and I am sure they will not cross 15% on all and maybe in one or two seats they will come second. Don't think they will have a big impact. 

DMK is a house divided and we have seen Alagiri causing some damage to their prospects the last time he was sent out of the party. Not sure if that will happen this time also. Even otherwise their prospects look bleak

AAP is a joker in the park. Don't think they will get even their deposits back except probably in Kanyakumari where Udayakumar from the Kudangulam agitation group is standing. 

Congress might do well due to individual’s capacity. Like Thirunavukarusu or Mani Shankar Aiyar might do well (don't think they will win though). Chidambaram could have done well if he had contested, but don't think Karthi will even come second. 

Primarily because of the opposition and the social welfare measures that ADMK government has been taking in the last 3 years I am pretty sure that ADMK will win close to 30 seats if not more. 

National Updates

Advani didn't want to contest from Gandhinagar because he doesn't trust Modi and fears he will ensure his defeat. No other reason. 

Arun Jaitley can be bit more polished in his chamcha to Modi. When a senior politician is sideline things can be done in a more dignified manner. 

In the current BJP only what Modi wants gets done. Others have absolutely no say. 

BJP seems to creating more troubles for themselves. The way they handled Advani/Jaswant issue or the Muthalik issue. It is really funny when they can definitely be the single largest party they are causing troubles for themselves. I repeat I said they can be single largest party not that they will form the government. 

Maharashtra - BJP/Shiv Sena combine could have done well but the way they had dealings with MNS will ensure they don't even get to half way mark in Maharashtra. 

Congress should really be happy with all the self goals from the NDA which will only help them especially in the states where they are fighting only against each other. 

Telengana issue seems to have backfired big time on Congress. They couldn't get the merger or alliance with TRS, which will only split the votes in that region. They had written off Seemandhra when they took the decision to split the state. 

AAP at the national level will hardly cross single digit. Except in Delhi don't think they will win a single seat outside (disclaimer - I didn't expect them to win so many seats in Delhi). 

Opinion polls all seem to give BJP more than 200 seats which doesn't factor in the individuals who are contesting. For eg, in MP I don't think a Scindia, Kamalnath, etc. will lose. There are so many such leaders from Congress who are sure to win, which will ensure the numbers don't match what the opinion polls project.

Will try to give my revised projections in the next few days.  

Coalition Contradictions

From the year 1996 India as a country has been seeing coalition governments at the center. No one has been able to get absolute majority. Any party which gets 160+ is see as victorious, unless it is led by a certain Narendra Modi (who cannot find new friends to take him past the half way mark).

What I would like to talk about today is list out some of the contradictions in the coalitions that are formed.

Tamil Nadu - TN is a strange example where we have had Left and Congress fighting elections together even thought they oppose each other every where else including the neighboring Kerala where they lead the two large coalitions in the state. We have had DMK a so called revolutionary party allying with BJP during the 1999 elections. DMK leader who calls an Hindu a thief and allies with a predominantly Hindu party. TMC the party which was formed opposing the Narasimha Rao's decision to ally with ADMK formed an alliance with the same ADMK in 1999.

Kerala - We have had coalition governments for a long time in the state. It is really peculiar where we see splinter groups of congress in the left alliance and the other way around also.

J&K - PDP whose leader Mehbooba Mufti who doesn't mind questioning Indian government's authority in J&K allies with a nationalist BJP. We also had the NC which derives its support from the muslims in Kashmir allying with BJP (they were mutually exclusive which helped them in winning though).

Maharashtra - We had the NCP which was formed against the foreigner's influence (read Sonia Gandhi) in the Congress party allying with the same Congress.

Puducherry - We have the NR Congress which runs the government with the support of Congress. NR Congress was formed when N Rangaswamy came out of the Congress.

Delhi - We have the AAP running the show with Congress's support, the very party which it claimed as untouchable.

In the upcoming elections 

BJP wants to ally with MDMK, PMK, etc. The two leading parties of TN have not shown any interest in allying with them. MDMK and PMK are known to be LTTE supporters and it will be fun to see Subramaniam Swamy (the new entrant of BJP) who is a known LTTE baiter sharing space together. MDMK has already said that the Sethusamuduram project has to be reassessed for the environmental issues.

BJP which has been claiming that they are clean and only Congress is corrupt also wants to ally with INLD led by Om Prakash Chouthala (who is currently in jail on corruption charges).

Congress is also not far behind, their VP wants to project a clean image but they are also harboring ambitions of allying with RJD led by Laloo Prasad (who is just out on bail after being convicted in one of the fodder scam cases).

Cliches when it comes to Coalitions

To justify all these contradictions the politicians have their own set of cliches

1) There are no permanent enemies or friends in politics
2) There are no untouchables in politics
3) This is just an election alliance and not based on ideology

The only thing that we have not seen is the Congress and BJP allying together somewhere or Left allying with BJP. Heard that left is keen on allying with a BJP splinter, so we might actually get to see that also.

As a famous Goundamani dialogue in a tamil movie "arasiyala edhu ellam satharanam appa"(everything goes in politics).. 

Review of the 2013 Assembly Elections and Expectations from AAP

This is a long overdue post on the review of the assembly elections. 

Madhya Pradesh : The result was as expected where Shivraj Chauhan has won the elections. BJP won 22 more seats than 2008. Fact that projection of Scindia was delayed was one of the main reason for Congress not able to make much of the anti-incumbency factor. This win should help BJP consolidate their position in the Lok Sabha elections. I had predicted that BJP and Congress will win 19 and 10 tickets in the Lok Sabha elections. I will stick with that position. 

Chattisgarh : To me personally this was also an expected result with Raman Singh winning the elections for BJP. BJP won 49 seats which was 1 lesser than 2008. Congress should feel bad they couldn't convert the sympathy after the Bastar incident into votes. This was a much closer election of the lot. I had predicted an 8/3 for BJP and Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. I would go ahead and change that to 7/4 for BJP and Congress

Mizoram : Lal Thanhawla won the election for the Congress. This was a consolation victory for Congress. As usual no one bothered about this election which is a shame. 

Rajasthan : More than anything this was a huge loss that would have hurted Congress the most. Not for the loss as such but for the margin. Congress won only 21 of the 199 seats. Everyone expected the Congress to lose even thought Gehlot had opened up the government coffers for populist measure in the last 2/2.5 years of his rule. Even that did not help him. I had predicted 13/12 for Congress and BJP but don't think that will happen. It will more like 8/17 for Congress and BJP. 

Delhi : This was a huge surprise to me. The Delhi Rape case and the Anna Hazare fast and the handling of these two by the government let to the frustration of the people. Delhi has one of the best infrastructure in the entire country which was thanks largely to Shiela Dixit but the above two incidents led to her loss. People wanted a change and AAP was able to convert those to votes for them. It is a while since we had any party form a government after their first elections. This was more of a vote against the central government than the state government. Congress should win 2 and BJP 2 and AAP 3 seats in the Delhi Lok Sabha elections. 

Expectations from AAP : Now that they have won the election and formed the government the expectations has risen a lot. They have to deliver on their promises. I hope they are not like Mamata Banerjee who has been useless as a Chief Minister. Binny issue will be closely watched but that seem to have been handled for now. Also there was huge difference between their election manifesto and the first speech that Kejriwal made after taking oath as CM. There were some tall promises made by AAP also like the 50% reduction in electricity charges, have to wait and watch how they deliver. Also they have taken a moral high ground on every issue but every action of theirs will be scrutinized. 

The Illicit Happiness of Other People - Review of Manu Joseph's second book

I read Serious Man, Manu Joseph's first book after nearly 3 years after it was published. It was an excellent comedy. I just loved that book, so was expecting a lot when I bought his second book. I had not read any reviews of the book. However, I knew it was on the short list for the Hindu Lit prize. 

However, I realized that this book was not a comedy in the first few pages itself. This book is about drunkard father's search for his son's suicide. This book starts off dry but it slowly grows on you.
Plot - Ousep Chacko is a drunkard journalist who lives with his wive Mariamma Chacko and sons Unni and Thoma Chacko in Chennai. 

As I had mentioned, the story is about Ousep's search for reasons for Unni's death. Unni is a cartoonist and he is kills himself. Ousep gives up his search for a while and 3 years after Unni's death he gets the copy of Unnni's last caroon. He thinks that the book will give him some clues and starts his sarch again.  

He goes around meeting different people who could provide some reasons for his son's death. There are various characters he meets - Unni's classmates Sai, Somen(he struggles to get to meet this guy), Balki, a Schizophernia expert (supposed to be a mental disorder), his neighbors daugher, a gay teacher, a nun who has vowed to silence, etc. 

Towards the end I was desperate hoping that Ousep really finds the reason and that was a success of the author. 

What I didn't like in the book - I somehow felt that the Schizophrenic expert character was introduced just to give the author some credentials to write about the mental issues. Also there was one page in the book which was added for no particular reason which calls MGR as silly and confused and ridicules JJ. There is absolutely no connection to the book and Manu Joseph probably wanted to express his view, isn't that the purpose of writing books? Also saying all malayalees are drunkards, not sure what was the necessity to typecast... 

Overall a very good book and I won't be surprised if N Ram gives the Hindu Lit prize to Manu Joseph for that one page :)

Biriyani - A Movie Review

Watched Biriyani yesterday night. This was my first movie at the PVR Cinemas. It was a decent experience. 

Movie is the 5th directorial venture of Venkat Prabhu. It is a typical Venkat Prabhu movie where some innocent guys gets into some trouble and how they come out of it. We have seen it in Saroja, Goa, etc. 

This movie was important for Karthi who has been having a string of flops. 

Cast includes Karthi, Hansika, Premji (a must have in all VP's movies), Nasser, Sampath, Subbu Panju, Madhumita, Ramki, Jayaprakash, and the typical VP gang of friends. We also have Uma Riyaz who has a good role. 

Karthi and Premji work in a tractor dealership after completing their engineering (that is a surprise - Mahindra probably induced that decision with lots of in movie ad placements). Karthi has a sister played by Madhumita and whose marriage is fixed with Subbu (manager of the dealership). Shamugasundaram(regular in VP movies) plays Karthi's father. Hansika Motwani plays a reporter and Badava Gopi (another regular in VP movies) plays a cameraman. Nasser plays a business tycoon and Ramki is son-in-law. Jayaprakash plays the role of an AC who is a side kick for Ramki and Sampath plays the role of a CBI officer. 

Karthi is a Casanova who is in love with Hansika. However, that doesn't stop his flirtatious ways. He is a doting brother for his sister played by Madhumita (sadly delegated to sister roles so soon). Premji always is shown as someone running behind girls in all VP movies. Not sure why. In this movie also he is shown falling for every girl he sees but sadly to have Karthi have them fall for him. The sad part about all VP movies is that girls are shown as objects. 

Story - Karthi and Premji go to Ambur for their branch inauguration and at the end of the party they go out for a plate of Biriyani. There they meet Mandy Thakkar (who plays Maya) and when they wake up next day with the dead body of Nasser with no clue what happened the previous night. How they get out of the mess forms the rest of the movie. First half is filled booze, bikinis, and typical VP fun. Second half is a decent thriller where the director will make you believe that the villain is one person but the twist in the tale at the end is interesting. 

Acting - Karthi has done a decent role but in certain scenes he doesn't emote well. Like when he realizes that he is in such a big trouble there is absolutely no paraprappu in his face (which is done well by Premji). Hansika doesn't have much to do. Premji is irritating at times but mostly has underplayed so is ok. Uma Riyaz has a decent role as a hit woman but her reaction (supposedly anger) in the station scene is pathetic. She should have played it more subtle. Mandy Thakkar is HOT as a seductress. 

Some scenes have no logic - Karthi going around everywhere (after his face was published in all papers and TV) with just a cap and not being recognized mostly. Karthi with a singham mustache being called as Surya by Hansika. The van in which Karthi's sister is kidnapped coming back just for a fight. Uma Riyaz shooting in the construction area and being a hit woman she is a pathetic shooter.  Premji is disguised as Nasser.  

Some scenes are good - Where VP in his typical style acknowledges that the movie has taken some inspiration from Hangover or the scene which imitates the Naduvula konjam Pakatha kanom or Nasser saying evalavo panittom edha panna mattoma? Nice to see a good fight scene between the hero and a lady (even though there is a typical tamil movie dialogue - "evalavu neram ponnunu pathaen before fighting with more force"). 

There are some double entendres which are typical in VP movies. 

All in all this Biriyani tastes good. 

ID Cards & Safety

One of the things that we all get used to from the school days is wearing the ID card. This continues even into the corporate world. Some have it with a long rope around the neck and some have it just with the pin. Some buy those rollers with which you can pull out the cards and these rollers are hung on the pant loops.

I personally prefer to wear whatever is offered by the organization. In most corporate organizations it is the long rope (you are sometimes reminded off the leash but we aren't we all controlled that way?).

The main aspect that I wanted to discuss was the safety aspect of the ID card. The ID cards are required in office premises to ensure that no strangers don't come into work places. Every one who enters an office are checked if they are wearing the ID cards. This is the required especially in offices were thousands of people work.

There is another benefit also, in case you want to know the name of someone who you like you can always look at the ID card to find their names. :) You don't have to use any detectives to find names.

There are many girls that I see don't remove their ID cards even when they get out of offices. I haven't seen that many boys wear IDs outside work. There are a few things that I want to highlight

1) You don't want to give an opportunity to everyone on the road to know your name

2) People who work in large companies will definitely be carrying a few cards, decent amount of money. The ID card that you wear around your neck is a clear give away for the thieves.

Do we really need this? The first thing that I remove when I get on to the car or bike is my ID. Not that I work in a lousy company (which I don't want people to know about). ID cards are for work & you should use them only there.