This is a long overdue post on the review of the assembly elections.
Madhya Pradesh : The result was as expected where Shivraj Chauhan has won the elections. BJP won 22 more seats than 2008. Fact that projection of Scindia was delayed was one of the main reason for Congress not able to make much of the anti-incumbency factor. This win should help BJP consolidate their position in the Lok Sabha elections. I had predicted that BJP and Congress will win 19 and 10 tickets in the Lok Sabha elections. I will stick with that position.
Chattisgarh : To me personally this was also an expected result with Raman Singh winning the elections for BJP. BJP won 49 seats which was 1 lesser than 2008. Congress should feel bad they couldn't convert the sympathy after the Bastar incident into votes. This was a much closer election of the lot. I had predicted an 8/3 for BJP and Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. I would go ahead and change that to 7/4 for BJP and Congress
Mizoram : Lal Thanhawla won the election for the Congress. This was a consolation victory for Congress. As usual no one bothered about this election which is a shame.
Rajasthan : More than anything this was a huge loss that would have hurted Congress the most. Not for the loss as such but for the margin. Congress won only 21 of the 199 seats. Everyone expected the Congress to lose even thought Gehlot had opened up the government coffers for populist measure in the last 2/2.5 years of his rule. Even that did not help him. I had predicted 13/12 for Congress and BJP but don't think that will happen. It will more like 8/17 for Congress and BJP.
Delhi : This was a huge surprise to me. The Delhi Rape case and the Anna Hazare fast and the handling of these two by the government let to the frustration of the people. Delhi has one of the best infrastructure in the entire country which was thanks largely to Shiela Dixit but the above two incidents led to her loss. People wanted a change and AAP was able to convert those to votes for them. It is a while since we had any party form a government after their first elections. This was more of a vote against the central government than the state government. Congress should win 2 and BJP 2 and AAP 3 seats in the Delhi Lok Sabha elections.
Expectations from AAP : Now that they have won the election and formed the government the expectations has risen a lot. They have to deliver on their promises. I hope they are not like Mamata Banerjee who has been useless as a Chief Minister. Binny issue will be closely watched but that seem to have been handled for now. Also there was huge difference between their election manifesto and the first speech that Kejriwal made after taking oath as CM. There were some tall promises made by AAP also like the 50% reduction in electricity charges, have to wait and watch how they deliver. Also they have taken a moral high ground on every issue but every action of theirs will be scrutinized.
Madhya Pradesh : The result was as expected where Shivraj Chauhan has won the elections. BJP won 22 more seats than 2008. Fact that projection of Scindia was delayed was one of the main reason for Congress not able to make much of the anti-incumbency factor. This win should help BJP consolidate their position in the Lok Sabha elections. I had predicted that BJP and Congress will win 19 and 10 tickets in the Lok Sabha elections. I will stick with that position.
Chattisgarh : To me personally this was also an expected result with Raman Singh winning the elections for BJP. BJP won 49 seats which was 1 lesser than 2008. Congress should feel bad they couldn't convert the sympathy after the Bastar incident into votes. This was a much closer election of the lot. I had predicted an 8/3 for BJP and Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. I would go ahead and change that to 7/4 for BJP and Congress
Mizoram : Lal Thanhawla won the election for the Congress. This was a consolation victory for Congress. As usual no one bothered about this election which is a shame.
Rajasthan : More than anything this was a huge loss that would have hurted Congress the most. Not for the loss as such but for the margin. Congress won only 21 of the 199 seats. Everyone expected the Congress to lose even thought Gehlot had opened up the government coffers for populist measure in the last 2/2.5 years of his rule. Even that did not help him. I had predicted 13/12 for Congress and BJP but don't think that will happen. It will more like 8/17 for Congress and BJP.
Delhi : This was a huge surprise to me. The Delhi Rape case and the Anna Hazare fast and the handling of these two by the government let to the frustration of the people. Delhi has one of the best infrastructure in the entire country which was thanks largely to Shiela Dixit but the above two incidents led to her loss. People wanted a change and AAP was able to convert those to votes for them. It is a while since we had any party form a government after their first elections. This was more of a vote against the central government than the state government. Congress should win 2 and BJP 2 and AAP 3 seats in the Delhi Lok Sabha elections.
Expectations from AAP : Now that they have won the election and formed the government the expectations has risen a lot. They have to deliver on their promises. I hope they are not like Mamata Banerjee who has been useless as a Chief Minister. Binny issue will be closely watched but that seem to have been handled for now. Also there was huge difference between their election manifesto and the first speech that Kejriwal made after taking oath as CM. There were some tall promises made by AAP also like the 50% reduction in electricity charges, have to wait and watch how they deliver. Also they have taken a moral high ground on every issue but every action of theirs will be scrutinized.
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