NOTA - None of the Above

Supreme court in the ruling on 27th of September has asked Election commission to introduce a button in the EVM for None of the Above option. Earlier the voters have to chose to use 49-O and they have fill in a paper form and express their view that they don't want to vote for any of the candidates.

This is a good move by the Supreme court for the following reasons

1) The Booth officers are known to discourage people from exercising the option of 49-O, that will no longer happen
2) The voters can exercise their preference in complete confidentiality and they don't have to answer unnecessary questions

Points to ponder

1) There will be a question on legitimacy of the election process if there are considerable number of NOTA votes.
2) The number of votes that the independents will receive will go down. Many votes that the independents receive is because the voters don't like the party candidates and they just vote for someone. In the long term, this will be a positive as only serious candidates will contest elections.
3) Many people feel that this might increase the voting percentage, but I personally don't agree to this. Voters don't vote because they don't want to go and stand line and exercise their franchise. NOTA button is not going to change that

Likewise, when a voter goes to the polling booth to exercise his/her franchise if they find that their vote has already been exercised by someone else they have to use a paper ballot to vote. This paper ballot is just folded and kept in a cover. Where is the confidentiality of such votes?

What is surprising is that some of the changes in the election process are coming from the Supreme court and not the parliament.  

Views about the Indian Team selected for the series against Australia

The Indian team for the T20 and first 3 ODIs of the series against Australia has been announced today and the team is

MS Dhoni (capt & wk), Shikhar Dhawan, Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Yuvraj Singh, Suresh Raina, Ravindra Jadeja, R Ashwin, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ishant Sharma, Vinay Kumar, Amit Mishra, Ambati Rayudu, Mohammed Shami, Jaydev Unadkat

 

Out of the above the following are a definite selection

 

1) MS Dhoni

2) Shikhar Dhawan

3) Virat Kohli

4) Suresh raina

5) Ravichandran Ashwin

6) Bhuvaneshwar Kumar

 

From the last tour of Zimbabwe the following miss out

 

1) Parvez Rasool - He didn't even get a game against Zimbabwe, so there was no way he could have got selected

2) Cheteshwar Pujara - Pujara is a definite in the play XI of the test team. One of the best talents that we have, however he is not being seen as a One day player. He scored 13 runs in the 2 matches that he played against Zimbabwe

3) Ajinkya Rahane - Jinx has been great player in the domestic and IPL. However, he has not done much in the ODI chances he has got. He got only 1 match against Zimbabwe which is unfortunate and he score a 50 in that match. He will probably have to continue to score well in the up coming domestic season and try to stake a claim again.

4) Dinesh karthik - Karthik has been doing reasonably well in the last few series. So he must feel really unfortunate to have missed out. He scored couple of 50's in the last 3 series he played.

5) Mohit Sharma - He picked up 3 wickets in the 2 matches that he got. It is not right to make a judgment purely based on the series against Zimbabwe.

 

This team was more of a second string team so let us look at who all missed out from the tournament before that the West Indies Tri Series & Champions trophy, both of which India won

 

1) Murali Vijay - He was dropped for the Zimbabwe tour itself. So there was not much hope for him in ODIs at least for now.

2) Umesh Yadav - This is just plain crazy to drop him. He is one of the genuine quick bowlers we have, if we cannot get to use him it is the fault of the head coach and bowling coach.

3) Irfan Pathan - He is injured so not considered

4) Dinesh Karthik - Detailed my views above on him

 

On the other 9 people in the team

 

1) Rohit Sharma - He has played 102 ODIs and scored 2558 runs at an average of 32. Nothing great for a top order batsman. After moving to the top of the order in the England series in India, he has scored 6 fifties in the 16 matches. He has somewhat playing to his potential after moving to the top. I would still hold my judgment for a while as Rohit is known to throw things away.  

2) Yuvraj Singh - A fit Yuvi is a definite in ODI team. He has played well in the A games against WI and the Challenger series. Good to see him back.

3) Ravindra Jadeja - With Yuvi back and Ashwin being the #1. Not sure what he will do? He has also not played well in the champions league so far.

4) Ishant Sharma - I don't know what is keeping him in the team. Don't think he has ever been effective in India.

5) Vinay Kumar - Vinay has not done anything of significance. He has picked up 30 wickets in the 26 matches that he has played at an average of around 36.

6) Amit Mishra - Mishra was selected purely for his 18 wickets in Zimbabwe. Do we have a place for him in the playing XI is a big question.

7) Ambati Rayadu - Got 3 matches in the Zimbabwe series and scored a 50. Good to see that they want to give more opportunity, we cannot say the same about Mohit Sharma.

8) Mohammed Shami - Shami has picked 9 wickets in the 11 matches that he has played at an average of 42. I would have preferred to go with Umesh Yadav any day to Mohammed Shami.

9) Jaydev Unadkat - He got to play all 5 matches against Zimbabwe and picked up a 4for in one of the matches against Zimbabwe. It is always nice to have a left hand seamer. Still early days to make a judgment on him.  

 

My 11 would have been

 

1) MS Dhoni - captain

2) Virat Kohli - vice captain

3) Shikhar Dhawan

4) Rohit Sharma

5) Suresh Raina

6) Yuvraj Singh

7) Ambati Rayadu

8) Ravichandran Ashwin

9) Jaydev Unadkat

10) Umesh Yadav

11) Bhuvaneshwar Kumar

 

Other 4 in the team

 

1) Ravindra Jadeja

2) Amit Mishra

3) Mohammed Shami

4) Dinesh Karthik

 

However the actual playing XI will be

 

 1) MS Dhoni

2) Virat Kohli

3) Shikhar Dhawan

4) Rohit Sharma

5) Suresh Raina

6) Yuvraj Singh

7) Ravindra Jadeja

8) Ravichandran Ashwin

9) Jaydev Unadkat/Shami

10) Ishant Sharma

11) Bhuvaneshwar Kumar

 

Of the 15 selected only change would have are Umesh Yadav instead of Ishant Sharma and Dinesh Karthik instead of Vinay Kumar.

Technical Services division

Allegations

1) Technical Services division was set up to illegally by Former chief of army General VK Singh
2) He had spied on Defence ministry officials using interceptors
3) He had bribed J&K Minister Ghulam Hassan Mir
4) He had tried to over throw the Omar Abdullah Government
5) Misuse of funds
6) A report submitted by the DGMO in March lists the above and also that he tried to change the line of succession

General's Response

1) There was a Technical Services division but it was not a technical but only a Human Intelligence organization
2) Army has paid not just Ghulam Hassan Mir but many ministers and NGOs who are working for maintaining peace in the state
3) Army has also carried out 8 covert operations outside the country
4) He has denied that interceptors were used to spy on defence ministry officials. Even though he has accepted that 2 of them were sold to a Singapore firm after they were found not worthy(there are reports that 2 interceptors were actually thrown in a river and typically army destroys everything and not sell to others to avoid security issues)
5) He has nothing to do with politics of throwing out the Omar Abdullah Government
6) The 2010 summer stone throwing was stopped purely by the Army
7) The whole controversy has erupted because of him sharing the platform with Modi

Political Parties Response

1) BJP claims that General Singh is targeted because of him sharing platform with Modi and questions why the Government has not acted on the DGMO report which was submitted in March
2) J&K Government has asked Congress to ask the Minister Mir to step down and there has been no response after Singh's interview that almost all ministers are paid and CM knows about it
3) Farooq Abdullah has asked for a CBI enquiry
4) Home Minister has asked General Singh to name the ministers who were bribed

Questions

1) Who gave the authority for General Singh to create such a division? Did he get the approval from Defence Minister/Prime Minister/Cabinet? Isn't the government responsible for approving such new divisions?
2) When RAW has been asking for the covert operations division to be re-started (this was shut down by IK Gujaral) who gave permission to the army to set up a covert operations division?
3) Does it make sense for the army to directly get involved in covert operations in other countries or shouldn't it be left to the RAW ?
4) Shouldn't IB be in-charge of working on internal intelligence and also working with NGOs etc. to ensure peace is maintained? Why was the army directly involved?
5) Why is there no clear demarcation of responsibilities?
6) Is it right for the army to bribe ministers to ensure peace is maintained? Don't the ministers take oath to stand by the constitution of this country? Do they have to be bribed to do that?
7) Understand that there are security implications, shouldn't the Government have acted swiftly and at least released officially what actions were taken? If the report is still being studied, shouldn't the government have reached out to the opposition and appraised them of the situation?
8) When General VK Singh is accused to have done some mischief is it right on the part of BJP to entertain him? Isn't national security of paramount importance to all parties?
9) As usual the Defence minister, is silent... Where is he? I think after the Augusta Westland bribery scandal, he is too shocked to even react to anything (how can a ministry under Mr Clean be accused of corruption? - that's why he is probably thinking)
10) Interceptors - What exactly happened, should come out.
11) Government leaks - Crazy timing.. everyone leaks information, but can't you be a bit more strategic and not leak information just when General Singh shares platform with Modi?
12) What was the armies counter intelligence division doing when all these were happening?

Interesting developments - Alliances

Very short post, there are some suggestions that I had mentioned that BJP and Congress should do in the part 5 of my series on 2014 elections things are starting to fall in place.

I had suggested that BJP should tie up with MDMK, PMK and other smaller parties. MDMK seems to be OK to tie up with BJP and in the recent rally Vaiko (the MDMK leader) was all praise for Vajpayee, clearly indicating his preference to go with BJP. Also BJP has apparently reached out to DMDK also.

I had also suggested that BJP should try to tie up with TDP as Chandrababu Naidu is feeling the pinch of being relegated to the 4th place in the state. During his visit Naidu has met with Rajnath Singh and has clearly stated that he is ok to support BJP. The irony is that Naidu walked out of the NDA to reduce the loss of muslim votes. Naidu is desperate to gain some ground in the state, at least through the alliance with BJP.

I had also suggested that Congress should tie up with YSRC. Today Jaganmohan Reddy has been granted bail and I believe things will start moving towards a formal alliance (if not a merger).

Don't think the leading National parties are reading my blog, but at least my thoughts are same as what is actually happening on the ground. Next 8 months till elections will be interesting.

Infosys - Getting all bad press

Infosys has been getting all the bad press for every exit of someone from the organization. You open the papers this morning and you see that Kartik Jayaraman who was the BPO head for Australia has quit and then before that it was Ashok Vemuri who was the North America and Manufacturing head. Before that it was the Latam Head of Infosys BPO. Then there was the sales head Basab who also quit recently. The Infosys spokesperson has rightfully said that they cannot react to every exit other than Senior level.
 
I believe that some of the newspapers (especially ET) created an application which mines LinkedIn and whenever someone changes their current organization from Infosys to something else that becomes news.
 
Infosys at its peak decided to fire Phaneesh Murthy due to the sexual harassment case. There was no major impact even for that. Phaneesh is known for his selling skills and there are many tales of how he had swung many deals with just a single conversation.
 
When Shibulal became the CEO Mohandas Pai quit Infosys. It was given such a huge coverage in all press. Mohandas Pai was the darling of the media during his CFO days and that ensured that his exit had good coverage. It is completely another story that Mohandas Pai, as the HR head, was the man behind iRace which was a huge HR disaster and caused huge attrition in Infosys.
 
Ashok Vemuri who was touted as a possible candidate for being the CEO of Infosys quit recently because he was in a hurry to become a CEO. Becoming a CEO of a much smaller company or waiting for an year or so to get a chance to become a CEO of a larger company is an individual’s choice.
 
Basab Pradhan was made the Sales head when Phaneesh was fired. He quit Infosys in 2005 and joined back in 2011. With the verticilization of the business, the role of corporate level sales head is fussy. Not really sure why he was brought back in 2011. Rightfully he has moved on as I feel a central sales head is not required.
 
Agreed every exit will take with it the customer contacts but end of the day customers work for what  company is rather than just the Execs who they have contact with.
 
Bias in reporting is also stark. When the Infosys BPO Latam Head quit he was replaced by someone from a competition. Also this person has actually rejoined Infosys after being with the competition company for an year. Why that wasn’t mentioned anywhere?
 
Other companies are also seeing Senior level exits. Everywhere people will look for opportunities. Why aren't those reported as much as what happens in Infosys?
 
When was the last time we read about exits from TCS/HCL/Cognizant/Wipro? Shouldn't the media houses have their application which mines LinkedIn looked at these companies also?
 
What has the poor Infosys done to get such coverage for every exit?

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 5

Concluding part of this series.

I had missed Goa, the total seats in Goa is 2 and both should go to BJP

Total Seats

BJP - 158 (includes Shiv Sena, SAD, NPF)
Congress - 187(includes NC, SDF)
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 24
BJD  - 15
DMK - 8
ADMK - 29
TMC - 25
TDP - 7
YSRC - 15
SP - 20
BSP - 17

If DMK is included with Congress they will get to 195. Will need another 77 more seats for absolute majority.

BJP with a total of 158 will require 114 seats.

Best Case scenarios for BJP

Even though as per my projections BJP is expected to win 158, what is the best case scenario for them?

1) Uttar Pradesh they can get 2 seats more
2) Assam with the alliance with AGP they can get 2 seats more
3) Punjab they can get a seat more
4) Uttarakhand they can get 3 seats more
5) Bihar they can get 2 seats more
6) Haryana they can get 3 seats more
7) Karnataka they can get 2 seats more
8) Gujarat they can get 2 seats more
9) Maharasthra they can get 10 seats more
10) MP they can get a seat more
11) Rajasthan they can get 4 seats more
12) Delhi they can get 3 seats more

If all the above happens then BJP will end up with 193 seats and still short by 79 seats. Where will they get those 79 seats from is the big question.

The problem with BJP is that it is not pan India present. In the following states they have no presence - West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Kerala. These four states constitute 143 seats. They will most likely not win even a single seat in these seats.

Only possible allies for them could be ADMK, MNS, TMC and TDP which will end them at 256 seats that is 16 seats short of majority. That should be manageable somehow.

Only if all the best case scenarios work out, they can get to form the Government. That is highly unlikely to happen. In case they are more than 30-40 seats short even after the above allies join them, then they will have to sacrifice Modi as he will not be acceptable to any other ally be it JDU/JDS/BSP/YSRC.

Best Case scenarios for Congress

Even though as per my projection Congress is expected to win 195 seats, what is the best case scenario for them?

1) Uttar Pradesh they can get 10 seats more
2) Tamil Nadu they can get 17 seats more by allying with DMDK and DMK
3) Andhra Pradesh get 17 seats more by allying with YSRC

If that happens they will end up with 239 seats. Where will they get those 33 seats from? I would say the following parties will be willing to support Congress

1) JDU with 21 seats
2) SP & BSP with 37 seats
3) RJD & LJP with 9 seats
4) JMM with 2 seats
5) Left might also consider supporting to keep the "communal BJP" out of power with their 24 seats
All that will take it to 289 seats and into simple majority.

Third Front Scenario

When both Congress and BJP don't get close to that 190+ mark. In case that happens, all permutations and combinations are possible and we will have 2 years of third front rule before we have another round of elections. Following people will be definitely staking claim Mulayam, Mayawati, Mamata, Jayalalitha & Nitish. We could also have a surprise candidate like a Naveen Patnaik who should be acceptable to a larger number of regional and left parties. Also read that Sharad Pawar is also keen to become PM.

What should BJP do now?

1) Get MNS into the BJP/Shiv Sena alliance which will help them give a good fight to the Congress/NCP alliance
2) Try to open their account in Tamil Nadu by forming an alliance with whatever parties are left out like PMK, MDMK, etc.
3) Form an alliance with the Gorkha groups in West Bengal and assure them of more powers (no state party will assure Gorkhas separate state) which might get them 2-3 seats.
4) Firm up the unofficial ties with JDS(BJP didn't contest the recent by polls and supported JDS instead) in Karnataka which might get them 5 more seats
5) Tie up with Chandrababu Naidu's TDP. Already he is feeling the pinch of being relegated to the 4th position in the state after Congress/TRS/YSRC.
6) Tie up with PDP in J&K which can help them in getting couple of more seats

If you look at it, except MNS all other parties are in their wane and they are the only possible candidates for pre-poll alliances.

What should Congress do now?

1) Firm up an alliance with YSRC in Andhra
2) Firm up an alliance with DMK/DMDK in Tamil Nadu
3) Firm up an alliance with JDU in Bihar. In case he is not interested, then with RJD/LJP.
4) Spend lots of effort in West Bengal. Position themselves as the alternative to highly incompetent Mamata.

Possible candidates from Congress and BJP (other than Raga and Namo)

Strongly feel that Rahul Gandhi would like to have his own Manmohan Singh. The possible candidates
a) P Chidambaram - Who is known to be close to the Gandhi family and is generally acceptable to all communities (except probably someone in TN who doesn't like anyone from TN becoming a PM. Case in point GK Mopanar missing out in 1996)
b) Digvijay Singh - Highly unlikely as he is currently being sidelined in MP itself.
c) AK Antony - You will have another Mr Clean. Might not get the nod, as he will not be acceptable to the corporates
d) Sushilkumar Shinde - Possible if Congress wants to project a Dalit as a PM. However, his health is not good recently and that might go against him

As mentioned earlier, in case BJP is around 40 seats short of majority then they will be forced to sacrifice Namo. The possible candidates are
a) LK Advani - Don't discount the old man as yet. He will fancy his chances as he is now become more acceptable to guys like Nitish
b) Arun Jaitley/Sushma Swaraj - Both leaders of Opposition. Arun Jaitley is even postponed his becoming the President of BCCI to ensure he doesn't miss out on an opportunity to become the PM of the country
c) Shivraj Singh Chauhan - This guys has ambitions of becoming the PM. He will also win a 3rd term as CM this year. He is playing is cards well by positioning himself as all that Namo is not.
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With this I am concluding this series. Will write more about the elections as we get closer to May 2014.  

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 4

Fourth part of this series.

Uttar Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 80

The biggest state in terms of number of seats. Akilesh Yadav is at complete loss in handling the state. If there is one state that can be considered for partition it should be Uttar Pradesh. He has no clue of how to govern, with all the pullings from the stalwarts of the party including his uncles and dad. There have been so many riots in the last 1 year and the law and order is in a mess.

I strongly feel the Modi effect will be felt highly in Uttar Pradesh and that will help BJP a lot. With Amit Shah being made responsible for the state, things have started moving fast. BJP will gain heavily if they can consolidate the Hindu votes which they had lost a bit to Mayawati. She was smart in creating a social alliance between Brahmins and Dalits (which was unthinkable sometime back) to win a huge majority in the previous assembly elections. Brahmin votes have now more or less moved to BJP and she will definitely retain her Dalit vote base.

The VHP's plans for a Kosh Yatra which was stopped by the Akilesh government and now the riots in Muzzafar nagar all will help BJP in consolidating the Hindu votes.  What is to be seen is if the anger among the muslim community against the Samajwadi party in the wester UP (after the recent riots) spread to other parts of the state and will really cause their votes to move away from SP.

Sad part is there is too much politics with religion in this state. BJP getting more hindu words is a given. Who gets the muslim votes is what will decide who will receive how many seats here.

Congress is the joker in the pack. It stunned everyone by winning 20 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. Don't think they will be able to repeat that feat unless muslims vote en-masse, which is highly unlikely to happen.

My Prediction

BJP - 35
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Congress - 8

Union Territories(except Delhi)

Total Lok Sabha seats  : 6

My prediction

BJP - 3
Congress - 3

Tirupara

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

CPM - 2

Sikkim

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

SDF - 1 (this will be part of the congress alliance)


Nagaland

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)

Mizoram

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

Congress - 1

Meghalaya

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)
Congress - 1

Manipur

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

Congress - 2

Arunachal Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

Congress - 2

Assam

Total Lok Sabha seats - 14

Tarun Gogoi has currently in his third term as Chief Minister and I feel the anti-incumbency will play a part in this election. The AGP is likely to tie up with BJP again.

My Prediction

Congress - 7
AGP/BJP - 7

The last part of this series will have my overall observations and the total seats that each party will get.