Interesting developments - Alliances

Very short post, there are some suggestions that I had mentioned that BJP and Congress should do in the part 5 of my series on 2014 elections things are starting to fall in place.

I had suggested that BJP should tie up with MDMK, PMK and other smaller parties. MDMK seems to be OK to tie up with BJP and in the recent rally Vaiko (the MDMK leader) was all praise for Vajpayee, clearly indicating his preference to go with BJP. Also BJP has apparently reached out to DMDK also.

I had also suggested that BJP should try to tie up with TDP as Chandrababu Naidu is feeling the pinch of being relegated to the 4th place in the state. During his visit Naidu has met with Rajnath Singh and has clearly stated that he is ok to support BJP. The irony is that Naidu walked out of the NDA to reduce the loss of muslim votes. Naidu is desperate to gain some ground in the state, at least through the alliance with BJP.

I had also suggested that Congress should tie up with YSRC. Today Jaganmohan Reddy has been granted bail and I believe things will start moving towards a formal alliance (if not a merger).

Don't think the leading National parties are reading my blog, but at least my thoughts are same as what is actually happening on the ground. Next 8 months till elections will be interesting.

Infosys - Getting all bad press

Infosys has been getting all the bad press for every exit of someone from the organization. You open the papers this morning and you see that Kartik Jayaraman who was the BPO head for Australia has quit and then before that it was Ashok Vemuri who was the North America and Manufacturing head. Before that it was the Latam Head of Infosys BPO. Then there was the sales head Basab who also quit recently. The Infosys spokesperson has rightfully said that they cannot react to every exit other than Senior level.
 
I believe that some of the newspapers (especially ET) created an application which mines LinkedIn and whenever someone changes their current organization from Infosys to something else that becomes news.
 
Infosys at its peak decided to fire Phaneesh Murthy due to the sexual harassment case. There was no major impact even for that. Phaneesh is known for his selling skills and there are many tales of how he had swung many deals with just a single conversation.
 
When Shibulal became the CEO Mohandas Pai quit Infosys. It was given such a huge coverage in all press. Mohandas Pai was the darling of the media during his CFO days and that ensured that his exit had good coverage. It is completely another story that Mohandas Pai, as the HR head, was the man behind iRace which was a huge HR disaster and caused huge attrition in Infosys.
 
Ashok Vemuri who was touted as a possible candidate for being the CEO of Infosys quit recently because he was in a hurry to become a CEO. Becoming a CEO of a much smaller company or waiting for an year or so to get a chance to become a CEO of a larger company is an individual’s choice.
 
Basab Pradhan was made the Sales head when Phaneesh was fired. He quit Infosys in 2005 and joined back in 2011. With the verticilization of the business, the role of corporate level sales head is fussy. Not really sure why he was brought back in 2011. Rightfully he has moved on as I feel a central sales head is not required.
 
Agreed every exit will take with it the customer contacts but end of the day customers work for what  company is rather than just the Execs who they have contact with.
 
Bias in reporting is also stark. When the Infosys BPO Latam Head quit he was replaced by someone from a competition. Also this person has actually rejoined Infosys after being with the competition company for an year. Why that wasn’t mentioned anywhere?
 
Other companies are also seeing Senior level exits. Everywhere people will look for opportunities. Why aren't those reported as much as what happens in Infosys?
 
When was the last time we read about exits from TCS/HCL/Cognizant/Wipro? Shouldn't the media houses have their application which mines LinkedIn looked at these companies also?
 
What has the poor Infosys done to get such coverage for every exit?

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 5

Concluding part of this series.

I had missed Goa, the total seats in Goa is 2 and both should go to BJP

Total Seats

BJP - 158 (includes Shiv Sena, SAD, NPF)
Congress - 187(includes NC, SDF)
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 24
BJD  - 15
DMK - 8
ADMK - 29
TMC - 25
TDP - 7
YSRC - 15
SP - 20
BSP - 17

If DMK is included with Congress they will get to 195. Will need another 77 more seats for absolute majority.

BJP with a total of 158 will require 114 seats.

Best Case scenarios for BJP

Even though as per my projections BJP is expected to win 158, what is the best case scenario for them?

1) Uttar Pradesh they can get 2 seats more
2) Assam with the alliance with AGP they can get 2 seats more
3) Punjab they can get a seat more
4) Uttarakhand they can get 3 seats more
5) Bihar they can get 2 seats more
6) Haryana they can get 3 seats more
7) Karnataka they can get 2 seats more
8) Gujarat they can get 2 seats more
9) Maharasthra they can get 10 seats more
10) MP they can get a seat more
11) Rajasthan they can get 4 seats more
12) Delhi they can get 3 seats more

If all the above happens then BJP will end up with 193 seats and still short by 79 seats. Where will they get those 79 seats from is the big question.

The problem with BJP is that it is not pan India present. In the following states they have no presence - West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Kerala. These four states constitute 143 seats. They will most likely not win even a single seat in these seats.

Only possible allies for them could be ADMK, MNS, TMC and TDP which will end them at 256 seats that is 16 seats short of majority. That should be manageable somehow.

Only if all the best case scenarios work out, they can get to form the Government. That is highly unlikely to happen. In case they are more than 30-40 seats short even after the above allies join them, then they will have to sacrifice Modi as he will not be acceptable to any other ally be it JDU/JDS/BSP/YSRC.

Best Case scenarios for Congress

Even though as per my projection Congress is expected to win 195 seats, what is the best case scenario for them?

1) Uttar Pradesh they can get 10 seats more
2) Tamil Nadu they can get 17 seats more by allying with DMDK and DMK
3) Andhra Pradesh get 17 seats more by allying with YSRC

If that happens they will end up with 239 seats. Where will they get those 33 seats from? I would say the following parties will be willing to support Congress

1) JDU with 21 seats
2) SP & BSP with 37 seats
3) RJD & LJP with 9 seats
4) JMM with 2 seats
5) Left might also consider supporting to keep the "communal BJP" out of power with their 24 seats
All that will take it to 289 seats and into simple majority.

Third Front Scenario

When both Congress and BJP don't get close to that 190+ mark. In case that happens, all permutations and combinations are possible and we will have 2 years of third front rule before we have another round of elections. Following people will be definitely staking claim Mulayam, Mayawati, Mamata, Jayalalitha & Nitish. We could also have a surprise candidate like a Naveen Patnaik who should be acceptable to a larger number of regional and left parties. Also read that Sharad Pawar is also keen to become PM.

What should BJP do now?

1) Get MNS into the BJP/Shiv Sena alliance which will help them give a good fight to the Congress/NCP alliance
2) Try to open their account in Tamil Nadu by forming an alliance with whatever parties are left out like PMK, MDMK, etc.
3) Form an alliance with the Gorkha groups in West Bengal and assure them of more powers (no state party will assure Gorkhas separate state) which might get them 2-3 seats.
4) Firm up the unofficial ties with JDS(BJP didn't contest the recent by polls and supported JDS instead) in Karnataka which might get them 5 more seats
5) Tie up with Chandrababu Naidu's TDP. Already he is feeling the pinch of being relegated to the 4th position in the state after Congress/TRS/YSRC.
6) Tie up with PDP in J&K which can help them in getting couple of more seats

If you look at it, except MNS all other parties are in their wane and they are the only possible candidates for pre-poll alliances.

What should Congress do now?

1) Firm up an alliance with YSRC in Andhra
2) Firm up an alliance with DMK/DMDK in Tamil Nadu
3) Firm up an alliance with JDU in Bihar. In case he is not interested, then with RJD/LJP.
4) Spend lots of effort in West Bengal. Position themselves as the alternative to highly incompetent Mamata.

Possible candidates from Congress and BJP (other than Raga and Namo)

Strongly feel that Rahul Gandhi would like to have his own Manmohan Singh. The possible candidates
a) P Chidambaram - Who is known to be close to the Gandhi family and is generally acceptable to all communities (except probably someone in TN who doesn't like anyone from TN becoming a PM. Case in point GK Mopanar missing out in 1996)
b) Digvijay Singh - Highly unlikely as he is currently being sidelined in MP itself.
c) AK Antony - You will have another Mr Clean. Might not get the nod, as he will not be acceptable to the corporates
d) Sushilkumar Shinde - Possible if Congress wants to project a Dalit as a PM. However, his health is not good recently and that might go against him

As mentioned earlier, in case BJP is around 40 seats short of majority then they will be forced to sacrifice Namo. The possible candidates are
a) LK Advani - Don't discount the old man as yet. He will fancy his chances as he is now become more acceptable to guys like Nitish
b) Arun Jaitley/Sushma Swaraj - Both leaders of Opposition. Arun Jaitley is even postponed his becoming the President of BCCI to ensure he doesn't miss out on an opportunity to become the PM of the country
c) Shivraj Singh Chauhan - This guys has ambitions of becoming the PM. He will also win a 3rd term as CM this year. He is playing is cards well by positioning himself as all that Namo is not.
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With this I am concluding this series. Will write more about the elections as we get closer to May 2014.  

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 4

Fourth part of this series.

Uttar Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 80

The biggest state in terms of number of seats. Akilesh Yadav is at complete loss in handling the state. If there is one state that can be considered for partition it should be Uttar Pradesh. He has no clue of how to govern, with all the pullings from the stalwarts of the party including his uncles and dad. There have been so many riots in the last 1 year and the law and order is in a mess.

I strongly feel the Modi effect will be felt highly in Uttar Pradesh and that will help BJP a lot. With Amit Shah being made responsible for the state, things have started moving fast. BJP will gain heavily if they can consolidate the Hindu votes which they had lost a bit to Mayawati. She was smart in creating a social alliance between Brahmins and Dalits (which was unthinkable sometime back) to win a huge majority in the previous assembly elections. Brahmin votes have now more or less moved to BJP and she will definitely retain her Dalit vote base.

The VHP's plans for a Kosh Yatra which was stopped by the Akilesh government and now the riots in Muzzafar nagar all will help BJP in consolidating the Hindu votes.  What is to be seen is if the anger among the muslim community against the Samajwadi party in the wester UP (after the recent riots) spread to other parts of the state and will really cause their votes to move away from SP.

Sad part is there is too much politics with religion in this state. BJP getting more hindu words is a given. Who gets the muslim votes is what will decide who will receive how many seats here.

Congress is the joker in the pack. It stunned everyone by winning 20 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. Don't think they will be able to repeat that feat unless muslims vote en-masse, which is highly unlikely to happen.

My Prediction

BJP - 35
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Congress - 8

Union Territories(except Delhi)

Total Lok Sabha seats  : 6

My prediction

BJP - 3
Congress - 3

Tirupara

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

CPM - 2

Sikkim

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

SDF - 1 (this will be part of the congress alliance)


Nagaland

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)

Mizoram

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

Congress - 1

Meghalaya

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)
Congress - 1

Manipur

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

Congress - 2

Arunachal Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

Congress - 2

Assam

Total Lok Sabha seats - 14

Tarun Gogoi has currently in his third term as Chief Minister and I feel the anti-incumbency will play a part in this election. The AGP is likely to tie up with BJP again.

My Prediction

Congress - 7
AGP/BJP - 7

The last part of this series will have my overall observations and the total seats that each party will get.

Syria - More Questions

Third blog on the Syrian issue.

The civil war is continuing and what I hear from the press is that the Government forces are gaining the upper hand. With Al Qaeda being part of the opposition, the West not attacking the Syrian government forces is the good thing. Can't imagine what would have happened if the West had joined hands with the Qaeda terrorists.

The large nation wanted to get out of the tricky situation and this move of handing over the Chemical weapons has helped them save some grace.

I have the following questions

1) If chemical weapons are moved to an international organization will the civil war end?
2) Will US pressurize the opposition also to handover the chemical weapons that they might have?
3) US has been saying that Assad has to go, as he was killing his own people. What has changed now?
4) Will the US completely stop providing weapons to the opposition forces?

 

Proud Moment for India - Mahindra Racing

India has had  a long history in motor racing. The Cholavaram race track near Chennai has been in existence more than 50 years and now we have moved on to Irungattukottai race track in Chennai.

However, when it comes to Indians or Indian teams at the very top level(F1 or Motogp), there has only been very few.

Narain Karthikeyan became the first Indian to drive  in F1 in 2005. 2008 we had an Indian F1 team with Force India. There was nothing Indian about it except the owner. Then in 2010 Karun Chandhok became the second Indian to drive in F1.

2011 had three debuts. Mahindra racing started participating in the MotoGP in the 125cc category. Mahindra has been racing for the last 3 years in the highest level of motor cycle racing. We then had S Sarath Kumar drive for a single race in the 125cc category in 2011. We also had an Indian Grand Prix in the Buddh International Circuit at Noida.

Mahindra racing is a fully Indian team with the vehicle manufactured by Indian. Agreed that it has a tie up with Suter Racing for 2013. They have had not so great results till last year but this year has been good for Mahindra racing.

Today as I write this blog, Mahindra Racing has gone one step ahead and has a first customer in Ambrogio Racing for the Mahindra vehicle in the Moto3 category. Ambrogio Racing is using Mahindra Racing from the Misano Grand prix happening this weekend. It is the testimony of the quality that Mahindra has been able to provide at that level.

This is a great moment for all Indians, that we have an Indian company which produces vehicles which is used in the Highest level of racing not just by that company but others as well.

Disappointed though, that this huge achievement has had very little (or should I say no coverage) in the Indian press.

However, true motor sport lovers like me are really proud of this achievement. Go Mahindra!!!

Putin for Peace Prize

This is more of a follow up to my earlier post on the subject of the West's intentions to attack Syria.

Obama went to town with his statements that he does not want United Nations approval and just the Congress approval. There were even statements that he will go ahead even without the Congress approval, not from official channels though. France and Britain was ready to join. However, UK Parliament put an hold to Cameron's plans of joining the bandwagon.

Then Kerry made an off the cuff remark that if Syria gives up its chemical weapons it will not be attacked. Russia brilliantly pounced on it and now Syria has even agreed to sign the CWC on top of handing over their entire chemical weapons to an international organization.

This is a huge loss of face for Obama for the following reasons

1) He was so committed to going to war but now had to back out
2) There were talks that Congress would have rejected the proposal, that would have been even worser situation for the president

Putin has come out in glowing colors out of this situation. There was a beautiful note he had written in the New York Times recently. The best part of the article was the way he had ended disagreeing Obama's statement about what makes Americans exceptional. Quoting the exact words "It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal."

There is lot of clamor for awarding Putin the Nobel Peace prize for averting an unnecessary war. I strongly second that. When people are given Nobel peace prize for just stating that they will stop(not actually stopping) an on going war, why not someone who has actually averted a war?

Putin for Peace Prize!!!