My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 1

Let me start with the state of the possible PM Candidate

Gujarat

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 26

With Modi being projected as a possible PM Candidate, it should be pretty easy for him to sweep the state. Add to it the issue of no strong leader in Congress to take him on, it should be like 20+ seats out of the 26 in Gujarat for the BJP.

My prediction
BJP - 20
Congress - 6

Maharashtra

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 48

One of the key states with 48 seats. Strongly believe the BJP/Shiv Sena combine don't have their act together so Congress/NCP combo will win around 30 seats. What can tilt the stakes will be in Raj Thackeray joins the BJP/Shiv Sena combo that will make it a closer contest

My prediction
BJP/Shiv Sena - 16
Congress - 30
MNS - 2

Madhya Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 29

Another state where the two major parties will be fighting each other. Shivraj Chauhan who also harbors dream of becoming the PM if Narendra Modi is not acceptable to all, is doing a good job and will win around 18-20 seats. Shivraj Chauhan is very smart in not going to town with his huge ambitions, but is playing his cards well.

My prediction
BJP - 19
Congress - 10

Rajasthan

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 25

Another state which is fought between the two leading parties. This should be a close fought states and will be a 50-50% between BJP & Congress. Assembly Election results will have an impact, whoever wins the assembly will have an upper hand in the Lok Sabha elections also.

My prediction
BJP - 12
Congress - 13

Delhi

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 7

Straight fight between Congress and BJP, congress will have an upper hand in the assembly elections also.

My prediction
BJP - 2
Congress - 5

Total for Part 1

BJP - 69
Congress - 64
MNS - 2

In all the head to head states looks like BJP will be doing better. Will come back with next part shortly.  

My views on our TV News Anchors

Let me start with everyone's favorite Arnab Goswami...

His favorite topics - Pakistan & China
Favorite guests - Boria Majumdar, Maroof Raza
Style - Get at least 8 people on his show and allow only people who toe his line to talk.. others are cut off completely.. most often 30 minutes into the debate, there will be guests, who had not uttered even a word
Most used phrase or should I say most irritating thing that he says - Nation wants to know

Second up - Karan Thapar

His favorite topics - There is nothing like that, he talks about everything
Style - gets 4 guests (or 3 sometimes) and ensures everyone gets a chance to say what they want..
Most irritating thing that he says - can I can I can I can I can I interrupt.. he doesn't allow people to talk anything outside the boundaries that he draws

Next up - Rajdeep Sardesai - Jumping jack

His favorite topics - There is nothing like that, he talks about everything
Favorite guests - Yogeshwar Yadav.. even though he has joined a political party, he comes and conducts surveys for this channel..
Style - He keeps jumping in his seat while talking.. end of the debate, puts up something as editors take.. you will realize then that all the questions that he had asked in the program will be linked exactly to this editors take...
Most irritating thing that he says - Fair enough

Barkha Dutt - Wants to portray herself as the Oprah Winfrey of India.. I have stopped watching her program after the farce show that she conducted by inviting Manu Joseph, Swapan Dasgupta, Dilip padgoankar, Sanjaya Baru for an episode of Buck stops here after the Nadia tapes controversy.. She had no regrets about the lobbying that she was doing.. blaming Outlook and Open magazine instead.. maybe its only that she got caught and lots more journalist could be doing the same thing.. but once she was caught she should have at least stepped aside for sometime..

BCCI - The most secretive organization.. Mossad take a walk

The following things came to my mind as possible reason for West Indies coming to India in November

1) Sachin wants to play his 200th test at Wankhade
2) Sachin wants to retire post the 200th test in India
3) We need more Telecast rights money as there has been lull in home series and we don't have anything till late next year
4) Even BCCI is bored of India playing Sri Lanka (highly unlikely though)
5) BCCI sending a message to Lorgat/CSA. They better learn to respect the master
6) How can CSA announce the tour details without checking with BCCI? How can they announce 7 ODI, 2 T20 and 3 Test series without India's concurrence?

Along with the WI tour to India the BCCI has asked New Zealand to move forward and shrink the India's tour. Effectively we will end up playing 2 Test/3 ODIs with New Zealand. There are two things that they achieved by the changes to the NZ tour, SA will be forced to a accept a shortened tour and India will also get to play the Asia Cup.

BCCI has not cited what among the above is the real reason for the South Africa series being shrunk now. What was to be a 2 month trip to South Africa can now at best run for 40 days between November end to January 10th. Effectively means that we will end up playing 2 test/3 ODIs and a T20.

South Africa is the best test playing country and we have historically struggled there. This was a good time to have our team experience such hostile conditions(Not denying that India is having A tours to SA). Didn't they come to India to help us retain the #1 Ranking in 2010? Shouldn't we be reciprocating that?

I personally would have loved to see India play South Africa in a longer series and also in New Zealand (where also we have not had good success) rather than playing West Indies. You win against top teams to prove your might not keep defeating low ranked teams.

Understand that we are running the cricket world but we cannot just keep dictating terms to everyone. This is just NOT ON.

As paying public we need to know the reason why SA series has been shortened. With BCCI that is like day dreaming... Never will happen.. No RTI will ever work with BCCI... we will never ever know what happens in these BCCI meetings..

We have people from all political parties in the BCCI, then why is it that they cannot mandate RTI for the sports body?

Three basic questions

There are people claiming that elections and change of guard will take care of everything that is wrong with the economy. All economists and business people are stating that Land Acquisition bill in the current state will cause more harm.. Why is it that their they cannot push their favorite candidate for PM to push for amendments in the bill?

Every time there is a Hindu saint/leader under the radar why does BJP comes all out supporting them? Why do they find a need to support Asaram Bapu? What was the need for Pinky Anand/Subramaniam Swamy to support him?

Every time there is a muslim arrested on terrorism charges why does Congress & SP comes all out supporting them? I was shocked when Mani Shankar Aiyar claims that he doesn't know what IM is.

Utter Craziness all around..

Syria - What should the West think before they start their new adventure

West are about start their next adventure of attacking Syria, they should think about the following before they start this

1) Syria is not a party to the Chemicals weapons convention, so is it right to attack Syria for the use of chemical weapons (even if they have done that)?

2)  Syrian government is fighting the Al-Qaeda backed internal groups. Is the West ready to side with Al-Qaeda in their new adventure?

3) How a war hating President became so interested in war mongering now? He even won a Nobel peace prize for just stating that he will stop the wars

4) What did the west achieve in the Afghanistan - They are now trying to talk to Taliban and want to hand over the power to them. These are the same guys who they wanted to throw out.

5) What did the west achieve in Iraq - Except obviously getting rid of Saddam Hussain? There is still daily bombings

6) The civilian casualties in both the above wars is more than 125 thousand. Is it really worth the effort?

7) Even if they want to go ahead with the adventure(which they claim is a 2-3 day exercise), what will they try to achieve? Bomb a few critical infrastructure like bridges & communications and maybe try to take out Assad, they will end up killing a few civilians.

8) UN has become a huge joke, no one bothers about it. Why spend money on such an organization? Every member state is forced to give money to run this organization, if there is scant regard of what it does, why have such an organization?

9) When the US and UK have scant regard of human rights as was evident in the recent case of David Miranda and Edward Snowden, what right do they have to preach others?

10) Syria produces only 0.4% of world's total oil production, is that also important? I thought with the shale gas, the dependency on crude will reduce.

Why the secrecy about the health of our leaders?

Every US presidential candidate has to release their medical records before the elections. This is done primarily to ensure that the people are confident that the President is in a healthy condition and will be able to govern the country for the full term without any issues.

We in India, don't get any information about the health of our leaders. Why is that? There are multiple rumors that go around the country about the health of our leaders. The CM of Tamil Nadu, goes to Kodanad to get treated for some ailment every often. She claims that she goes there for rest but when Advani came calling she had informed that she was under treatment in Kodanat. Why?

Stalin the former Deputy CM goes to London often for treatment. There are rumors that he is suffering from some life threatening decease.

Sonia Gandhi, the leader of UPA goes to US for treatment for what was rumored to be Cancer/pneumonia infection. No one knows what it is.

Only exception in the recent past was when PM underwent bypass and was out of action for nearly a month.

Agreed that we don't vote in presidential style elections but we also need to know whether our leaders are in good health.

Media also don't want to talk about the health of our leaders. Media generally avoids personal side of any leader but that ended when they reported about what ND Tiwari did in the governor's house.

Can we get to know our leaders health through RTI if they are not transparent about their health? I think we should.

Politics at its best - VHP 84 Kosh Yatra

The moment Amit Shah was made the UP in-charge of BJP, one thing became clear. The BJP is keen to win the maximum number of seats from UP which was essential for them to form the government at the center.

Their assumption was that they can do this only by communalizing. Immediately after his appointment Amit Shah said he wants to have the Ram Mandir built at Ayodhya. Modi clearly has a two prong strategy for the 2014 elections, he personally will talk about Development, investments, etc which will attract the middle class and Amit Shah's of the BJP will talk about mandir, 370, uniform civil code, etc which they believe will get them the Hindu votes in bulk. There is some truth to this argument also, as the best performances of BJP in UP were in the 90's when the Ram Mandir movement was very active.

Now coming to the VHP yatra, it seems that the 84 kosh parikrama is held every year in April/May and this year also it has been completed during the same time. Once their original plans were criticized VHP changed this to a padayatra. The parikrama route and the padayatra routes were also different. The padayatra route which was planned was through the sensitive muslim localities.

The UP government did the right thing (even though the last 1 year of their rule has been pathetic in terms of law and order) by banning the rally/yatra/parikrama or whatever they want to call it. They also took the VHP leaders under preventive custody.

Questions

1) Why did the VHP plan this yatra now and try to do it under the guise of a yearly event (even though it got the timing wrong)?
2) Why is the BJP silently supporting this event?


I really hope the people of this country, move away from such communalization and vote on real issues.