Latest Prediction for 2014 elections

Uttar Pradesh
BJP - 35
Congress - 8
SP - 20
BSP - 17

BJP will find it very difficult to cross the 35 mark as their organization structure fell apart after being out of power for nearly 2 decades. Even if they have support not sure if they can convert it to votes. This in itself is a tall order considering the fact that they have only 47 MLAs (12%).

Assam

One of the states where every pollster is agreeing that Congress will do well

Congress - 10
BJP + - 3

Punjab

Congress - 8
BJP + - 5

SAD is having a huge anti incumbency and that should really benefit Congress and the fact that they had some strong candidates also helps.

Tamil Nadu

BJP+ - 3
ADMK - 26
DMK - 10

Even though the alliance that BJP had formed looks formidable on paper they cannot win many seats. 3 is the max that they can win.

Andhra Pradesh

Congress messed up big time with the Telengana and the alliance/merger with TRS. However, there will be goodwill in the Telengana region which will help them win few seats.

Congress - 12
YSRC - 10
BJP + TDP - 12
TRS - 8

Chattisgarh

Raman Singh scrapped through in the assembly. He will do slightly better in the LS

BJP - 7
Congress - 4

Bihar

BJP - 10
LJP - 2
RJD - 10
Congress - 5
JDU - 13

Even though people are saying JDU will have huge reversals don't think that will happen. With a 3 way contest expect all 3 combos to get almost equal seats. BJP best case can get 3 more seats

Haryana

Vadra factor will play here.

BJP - 6
Congress - 4

INLD will get some of the anti incumbency votes. BJP at best can get 1 more seat. AAP can also play a spoiler here for BJP

Karnataka

Congress - 20
BJP - 6
JDS - 2

Best case for BJP is to get 4 more seats.

Kerala

LDF is still in ruins which only helps UDF

UDF - 14
LDF - 6

Odisha

BJD - 15
BJP - 4
Congress - 2

Gujarat

BJP - 22
Congress - 4

Gujarat has to vote for Modi. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the 4 seats that Congress wins is Gandhinagar, Modi is known for such things.

Maharashtra

BJP - 12
Congress - 14
SS - 10
NCP - 12

I strongly feel that MNS will still play the spoiler for the SS + BJP alliance even though they are primarily fighting only the SS. Best case for BJP is to win 5 more seats

Madhya Pradesh

Some strong candidates will ensure that Congress gets to double digits.

BJP - 19
Congress - 10

BJP can at best get 3 more seats

Rajasthan

This will be huge win for BJP like the assembly elections

BJP - 20
Congress - 5

Delhi

AAP - 2
Congress - 2
BJP - 3

Goa

BJP - 2

J&K

PDP - 1
Congress - 3
NC - 2

Himachal

Slogans like Dil Mange more will not work here

BJP - 2
Congress - 2

Uttarakhand

BJP - 2
Congress - 3

The rehabilitation post the floods will cause damage to Congress. BJP can win 1 more seat at best case

Tirupura

Left - 2

Sikkim

Congress - 1

Nagaland 

BJP+ - 1

Mizoram

Congress - 1

Meghalaya

Congress - 2

Manipur

Congress - 2

Arunachal 

Congress - 2

Union Territories

Congress - 3
BJP - 3

West Bengal

TMC - 25
Left - 12
Congress - 5

Jharkhand

BJP - 5
Congress - 6
RJD - 1
JMM - 2

BJP at best can win 2 more seats

Total
BJP+SS+SAD+TDP+LJP = 195
Congress+NC+RJD+NCP+JMM = 179
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Left - 20
DMK - 10
ADMK - 26
TMC - 25
YSRC - 10
JDU - 13
JDS - 2
BJD - 15
TRS - 8
AAP - 2
PDP - 1

How can BJP get to power?
BJP+ at best can add another 15 seats which will take it to 210 seats.

Another 62 -
TMC is completely ruled out with the recent utterances by TMC and BJP
SP is also ruled out
BSP is possible ally which will give them 17 seats
JDU and JDS are ruled out
Left is completely ruled out
BJD is a possible ally which will give another 15 seats
YSRC/TRS cannot be an ally as long as TDP is there in NDA
PDP is a possible ally with 1 more seat
Either ADMK or DMK could be a possible ally which will give them 25 or 10 seats.

Even then they will not be able to reach 272 unless they get few from the UPA like NCP or JMM or RLD. RJD and NC won't move over to NDA

Elections Update - Back after a break

Back after a short hiatus. Things have been pretty hectic at work. 

Tamil Nadu

The new front in TN (NDA) on paper might look strong. However, all key parties in it namely DMDK, PMK, MDMK are all on the decline. On paper people might claim that they have 22% vote shore but that was 5 years back. Things have changed and I am sure they will not cross 15% on all and maybe in one or two seats they will come second. Don't think they will have a big impact. 

DMK is a house divided and we have seen Alagiri causing some damage to their prospects the last time he was sent out of the party. Not sure if that will happen this time also. Even otherwise their prospects look bleak

AAP is a joker in the park. Don't think they will get even their deposits back except probably in Kanyakumari where Udayakumar from the Kudangulam agitation group is standing. 

Congress might do well due to individual’s capacity. Like Thirunavukarusu or Mani Shankar Aiyar might do well (don't think they will win though). Chidambaram could have done well if he had contested, but don't think Karthi will even come second. 

Primarily because of the opposition and the social welfare measures that ADMK government has been taking in the last 3 years I am pretty sure that ADMK will win close to 30 seats if not more. 

National Updates

Advani didn't want to contest from Gandhinagar because he doesn't trust Modi and fears he will ensure his defeat. No other reason. 

Arun Jaitley can be bit more polished in his chamcha to Modi. When a senior politician is sideline things can be done in a more dignified manner. 

In the current BJP only what Modi wants gets done. Others have absolutely no say. 

BJP seems to creating more troubles for themselves. The way they handled Advani/Jaswant issue or the Muthalik issue. It is really funny when they can definitely be the single largest party they are causing troubles for themselves. I repeat I said they can be single largest party not that they will form the government. 

Maharashtra - BJP/Shiv Sena combine could have done well but the way they had dealings with MNS will ensure they don't even get to half way mark in Maharashtra. 

Congress should really be happy with all the self goals from the NDA which will only help them especially in the states where they are fighting only against each other. 

Telengana issue seems to have backfired big time on Congress. They couldn't get the merger or alliance with TRS, which will only split the votes in that region. They had written off Seemandhra when they took the decision to split the state. 

AAP at the national level will hardly cross single digit. Except in Delhi don't think they will win a single seat outside (disclaimer - I didn't expect them to win so many seats in Delhi). 

Opinion polls all seem to give BJP more than 200 seats which doesn't factor in the individuals who are contesting. For eg, in MP I don't think a Scindia, Kamalnath, etc. will lose. There are so many such leaders from Congress who are sure to win, which will ensure the numbers don't match what the opinion polls project.

Will try to give my revised projections in the next few days.  

Coalition Contradictions

From the year 1996 India as a country has been seeing coalition governments at the center. No one has been able to get absolute majority. Any party which gets 160+ is see as victorious, unless it is led by a certain Narendra Modi (who cannot find new friends to take him past the half way mark).

What I would like to talk about today is list out some of the contradictions in the coalitions that are formed.

Tamil Nadu - TN is a strange example where we have had Left and Congress fighting elections together even thought they oppose each other every where else including the neighboring Kerala where they lead the two large coalitions in the state. We have had DMK a so called revolutionary party allying with BJP during the 1999 elections. DMK leader who calls an Hindu a thief and allies with a predominantly Hindu party. TMC the party which was formed opposing the Narasimha Rao's decision to ally with ADMK formed an alliance with the same ADMK in 1999.

Kerala - We have had coalition governments for a long time in the state. It is really peculiar where we see splinter groups of congress in the left alliance and the other way around also.

J&K - PDP whose leader Mehbooba Mufti who doesn't mind questioning Indian government's authority in J&K allies with a nationalist BJP. We also had the NC which derives its support from the muslims in Kashmir allying with BJP (they were mutually exclusive which helped them in winning though).

Maharashtra - We had the NCP which was formed against the foreigner's influence (read Sonia Gandhi) in the Congress party allying with the same Congress.

Puducherry - We have the NR Congress which runs the government with the support of Congress. NR Congress was formed when N Rangaswamy came out of the Congress.

Delhi - We have the AAP running the show with Congress's support, the very party which it claimed as untouchable.

In the upcoming elections 

BJP wants to ally with MDMK, PMK, etc. The two leading parties of TN have not shown any interest in allying with them. MDMK and PMK are known to be LTTE supporters and it will be fun to see Subramaniam Swamy (the new entrant of BJP) who is a known LTTE baiter sharing space together. MDMK has already said that the Sethusamuduram project has to be reassessed for the environmental issues.

BJP which has been claiming that they are clean and only Congress is corrupt also wants to ally with INLD led by Om Prakash Chouthala (who is currently in jail on corruption charges).

Congress is also not far behind, their VP wants to project a clean image but they are also harboring ambitions of allying with RJD led by Laloo Prasad (who is just out on bail after being convicted in one of the fodder scam cases).

Cliches when it comes to Coalitions

To justify all these contradictions the politicians have their own set of cliches

1) There are no permanent enemies or friends in politics
2) There are no untouchables in politics
3) This is just an election alliance and not based on ideology

The only thing that we have not seen is the Congress and BJP allying together somewhere or Left allying with BJP. Heard that left is keen on allying with a BJP splinter, so we might actually get to see that also.

As a famous Goundamani dialogue in a tamil movie "arasiyala edhu ellam satharanam appa"(everything goes in politics).. 

Who creates the posters that come up on the medians?

I have always wondered who creates the posters that come up on the road medians during the visit of any leader. I have had personal experience when a minister who was invited for a function specifically asked that such posters be put up on the median of the roads. This trend of putting up small posters on the medians is relatively new in Chennai. It has been in prevalence for the last 5-6 years.

The funny part is the wordings that people use on these posters like Vidi velliyae(morning star), nayaganae(hero), suriyanae(sun), bharathamae(india), edhayamae(heart) and what not. Earlier we used to have meaningful ones like the former Dy CM being addressed as Kurunji malar nayaganae (Hero of Kurunji flower) because he acted as the hero of a serial called Kurunji malar.

Now a days the wordings on these median posters don't have any meaning like Nalayae(tomorrow), etc. What does that even mean?

Some are outright false. Like what was put up when Narendra Modi came to Chennai. There were posters which claimed that he was the Eelam's saviour and Katchatheevu retriever. I am not sure when Modi retrieved Katchatheevu or saved eelam? To my knowledge he has not even uttered a single word on these subjects.

The other major issue for me is the safety of the road users, who is in charge of ensuring these posters put up on the medians stay there? Many times they are dangling on the road or fallen on the road. Already the roads are blocked by the barricades and some more is being taken up by the fallen posters. Shouldn't the parties be held responsible for ensuring the safety for these?  

CHOGM & Maldives - What India should do

CHOGM

The opposition from the Tamil Nadu political parties has literally forced the PM to take a decision. This is not a great multilateral forum that PM has to attend. However, with the resolution passed by the TN assembly, the PM has to attend the CHOGM meeting. Otherwise it will look like he has let the regional parties decide the foreign policy. What I would suggest is PM to attend the meeting and must also visit Jaffna. That will ensure that the regional parties keep quite. 

When it comes to Sri Lanka, we need to force them to implement the so called 13+ that Mahinda Rajapaksa said he will do. As mentioned in my earlier post about going back on promises he made (http://dailykaruthu.blogspot.in/2013/08/from-13-to-diluted-13-feeling-cheated.html), Rajapaksa has been getting away with whatever he wants to do. Unless we have a relationship with them, we will not be able to force him to act. In case the PM decides not to attend this meeting we will have no clout with Rajapaksa. The sad part is the opposition party in Sri Lanka led by Ranil Wikramasinghe is also in tatters that also gives Rajapaksa the room to do what he wants. 

Every party knows that Indian fisherman has been going deep into Sri Lankan territory to catch fish. When LTTE was active, Sri Lankan fisherman were not allowed to fish which also helped the Indian fisherman to catch fish in Sri Lankan territory. Now that LTTE is finished the Sri Lankan fisherman are also back in the ocean and they don’t want Indian fisherman fishing in their territory. This is what is forcing the Sri Lankan Navy to act. However, all that they should do is take the Indian Fisherman into custody for crossing into Sri Lankan territory and not fire at them. India needs to be engaged with the Sri Lankan government, even to force them not to fire at our fisherman.

The other worry is that China card is played beautifully by Rajapaksa. We are being naive to fall into that trap. We should have never allowed him to use the China card. When India is not even allowed to get near South China Sea how in the hell did India allow China to get well entrenched in Sri Lanka? 

Maldives

I had written about 20 days back about what's happening in Maldives (Maldives' tryst with democracy) and what India should do. Sujatha Singh the Foreign secretary had visited Maldives after that. But things have taken a turn for the worst. Elections were supposed to have been held by 20th of October is now postponed to 9th of November and if there is a second round it will be held on 16th of November. That will leave a 5 day gap of the country not having a President. 

Gayoom is still having a strong say in the country. India which has helped Gayoom many times, is not able to influence him now. This is really surprising and unbelievable as India even helped him thwart an attempt by LTTE to take over Maldives. 

Mohammed Waheed, the current President has decided not to contest the elections, which was the wise thing to do. He received only 5% votes in the annulled elections held on 7^th September.

Election commission has clearly stated that it will not hold elections before the 9th of November. India should ensure that the elections are held without any further delay. India should talk to Gayoom and reign him in. China has a huge consulate in Male and bulk of the tourists coming to Maldives are now from China. India need to ensure that Maldives also doesn’t start playing the China card. 

Response to the Open Page article by Dr Sheila Balakrishnan in The Hindu titled Civic Sense, last on our list

This is in response to the Open Page Article published in today's Hindu titled Civic Sense, last on our list by Dr Sheila Balakrishnan from Trivandrum(http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-features/tp-openpage/civic-sense-last-on-our-list/article5276987.ece). 

It is always easy to find fault with our country and this is another such article. I would like point out a few things and in no way am I saying that civic sense is not required. 

Coming to dog poop, I have lived in the US and seen everyone pick up the dogs poop and drop it in the bins. I also thought this was great and then realized that its by law that people are required to pick up their dog's poop. I would suggest that the doctor watches the beautiful movie called Milk where Sean Penn plays the first elected gay activist Harvey Milk and how he championed the law to force dog owners to pick up their dog's poop. In UK also its a law. I also feel bad when I see dog poop, cow dung and what not on the road and when I have jump around on the road to avoid stepping on them. I have also felt that we should have a law like in the west to force but when I realize that many human beings today defecate in the open as they don't have toilets at home we are asking for too much (at least for now). 

Road usage is an issue that I agree with the doctor on. However, you should drive in New York city to realize that there is nothing different from what happens in India. 

Public place behavior again I would request the doctor to read this beautiful article in New York Times titled The Good Men of India (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/20/opinion/sunday/the-good-men-of-india.html), we definitely need outsiders to tell how good people are in India. Also how many times have we had strangers take the kids on buses and keep them on their laps? In which other country would you see that? Everyone is so selfish about what they do and what not do. 

Mobile Phones, agreed but this is an issue across the world. Case in point the ex-NSA chiefs telephonic interviews being posted live on twitter. 

In end I would have been happy if the article was note just addressed to us Indians. All things that the doctor has raised happen across the world and not just in India. That being the case why would she point out about India alone? 

Civic sense is required for everyone period. Not just Indians. 

Government and PSU - When will they learn? - Part 1

This is a serious of frustrating things that I have experienced in various Government and PSU interactions

1) Online Grievance redressal with Chennai Corporation - Was very happy that the Chennai Corporation has a facility to raise any issues online. I raised a concern about the newly constructed storm water drains one night. The next day morning the ticket was closed and I received an SMS for the same. I was very happy with the speed of the response. Went to see what actually they have done, to see that nothing has changed. I was confused and logged in online to see an update "Action will be taken" and the ticket closed. They have strict SLAs I believe not for fixing the issue but only to close the tickets.

2) Property Tax Payment with Chennai Corporation - I had paid the property tax regularly and they started tracking the payment data online. I was happy with the digitization. However, they missed one of my payments that I made few years back. Went to the zonal office and gave them a letter with a copy of the bill. They said we will send the letter to Rippon building office and not sure when it will be acted on. They said don't pay the property tax till the issue is resolved as the system will take any payments that I make for that period which they claim was missed out. I have an outstanding of 3 years and I have sent a reminder also still no response. Second issue is why are there charges for paying the property taxes online? Aren't we saving their effort by paying online? Shouldn't they be giving a discount, which actually BSNL does for online payments. They give a 1% discount on the bill if either you pay online or

3) Indian Bank - My mom still uses the services of Indian Bank. The bank opens at 10 am daily, so we cannot go before we get to work on weekdays. Saturday is the only day we can go. Every time I go there for getting entries in the pass book, the teller says don't come on Saturdays. If you send an statement in mail why will I come to the bank regularly? They also shout at us if we don't get the passbook updated frequently. I have a joint account with my mom and we finally decided to apply for a debit card for my mom. The debit card came in my name I went to the bank to complain. The teller say it is ok to use the debit card even if it's in my name. What security!!! Then I explained, what will happen if my mom uses a debit card in my name in a shop. Then they agreed to change the card and reissue one in my mother's name. After waiting for a couple of weeks got an SMS that the card is ready. Went to the bank to see that it's again in my name. Decided that there is no point in complaining again. Next decided to apply for internet banking so that I don't run into such issues. Applied in my name this time but this time the PINs came in my mother's name. Bottom line in case of joint accounts, if you apply one thing in one holders name you will get it for the other holder :)

Not all instances are bad, let me share some experiences where they have learnt

1) Ration card - Addition of my son's name - I just googled what has to be done and went to the zonal office and gave a form. They said it will take 1 month to get the addition done and asked us to come after a month. Exactly after a month's time went and got the ration card with the addition done. Even though 1 month is a long time, was happy that the work got done without multiple follow ups

2) Experiences at RTO - Went for a few things like change of address in DL, RC and cancellation of hypothecation in RC. Every time as long as we follow the process that is laid out, everything got done with just one visit. Also happy that the money spent was very low than what we will do when we go through the agents. 

Section 8(4) of the Representation of People's Act - Ordinance and The Nonsense

Section 8 of the RP act lists down the conditions when the people's representative can be disqualified. Sub section 1 & 2 the representative can be disqualified for a period of 6 years even if the punishment is fine for certain offences like rape, sati, untouchability, etc. Sub section 3 talks about conviction for other crimes and when the representative is punished for 2 years at least. The sub section 4 talks about the exceptions to the above three sub sections. Basically all that the representative has to do is appeal against the judgement within a period of 3 months. This applies only for a sitting MP/MLA. The section 8(4) clearly distinguishes between a sitting MP/MLA and a contesting MP/MLA.

The Constitution bench of the Supreme court in a case in January 2005 clearly said section 8(4) is an exception and was held that the provision was not unreasonable. The division bench of the Supreme court in its ruling in July this year held that the section 8(4) is unconstitutional. Not sure if it is right for a division bench to override the constitution bench's verdict.

The government moved a bill in the parliament to change the section 8(4) and the changes were convicted MP/MLA can continue to be a representative as long he appeals and gets a stay on the verdict. However, they cannot vote on any legislature or draw any salary. This is contradiction to the constitution as the constitution gives the right to the MP/MLA to draw salary and vote on legislatures. The Rajya sabha has sent this bill to the standing commission where it is supposed to be discussed in detail before reintroduced.

In the interim the government moved a review petition in the Supreme court to reconsider the decision but the same has been rejected. The government moved an ordinance (basically an interim law which will hold good for 90 days till it is either approved/rejected in the parliament). The ordinance had the same language as the bill which is in the standing commission now.

Many parties reached out to the President asking him not to sign the ordinance (every law has to be signed by the President before it gets into effect, even after they are passed by the Parliament). President has asked for clarifications wanting to know what is the urgency for moving an ordinance.

Last Friday Rahul Gandhi came to a congress press conference and said that what the government is doing is wrong and the ordinance is utter nonsense and has to be thrown away. The cabinet is likely to discuss the ordinance and the fall out of Rahul Gandhi's outburst.

Questions

1) Can the division bench override what was already approved by the constitution bench?
2) What is the urgency to move the ordinance?
3) Even if government wants to negate the ruling of the Supreme court, it has to amend the constitution. There is no way the government could have passed the constitution amendment with their current number of MPs. That being the case couldn't the opposition, which is claiming that it is not right for the government to try and override the Supreme Court, defeated the constitution amendment? What is the necessity to send this to standing commission?
4) Going by the SC verdict, when a lower court convicts a representative they will be disqualified. What will happen if the conviction is overturned in the higher court?
5) Agreed that the courts in this country are independent. When the government can change the Public prosecutor isn't the government circumventing the independence?

There is a sub-plot, on the July 11th the Supreme court also ruled that the people who are in jail(not necessarily convicted)  cannot contest polls. The reasoning was that only people who can vote, can be elected. People in jail cannot vote and hence cannot contest elections. The government filed a review petition in the Supreme court. Without waiting for the review petition to be heard government moved an amendment to allow people in jails to contest polls. This has been passed in the parliament and approved by the President also. The amendment was the right thing to do, as there are many instances where cases are filed against opposition party  members and arrest are made. 

NOTA - None of the Above

Supreme court in the ruling on 27th of September has asked Election commission to introduce a button in the EVM for None of the Above option. Earlier the voters have to chose to use 49-O and they have fill in a paper form and express their view that they don't want to vote for any of the candidates.

This is a good move by the Supreme court for the following reasons

1) The Booth officers are known to discourage people from exercising the option of 49-O, that will no longer happen
2) The voters can exercise their preference in complete confidentiality and they don't have to answer unnecessary questions

Points to ponder

1) There will be a question on legitimacy of the election process if there are considerable number of NOTA votes.
2) The number of votes that the independents will receive will go down. Many votes that the independents receive is because the voters don't like the party candidates and they just vote for someone. In the long term, this will be a positive as only serious candidates will contest elections.
3) Many people feel that this might increase the voting percentage, but I personally don't agree to this. Voters don't vote because they don't want to go and stand line and exercise their franchise. NOTA button is not going to change that

Likewise, when a voter goes to the polling booth to exercise his/her franchise if they find that their vote has already been exercised by someone else they have to use a paper ballot to vote. This paper ballot is just folded and kept in a cover. Where is the confidentiality of such votes?

What is surprising is that some of the changes in the election process are coming from the Supreme court and not the parliament.  

Technical Services division

Allegations

1) Technical Services division was set up to illegally by Former chief of army General VK Singh
2) He had spied on Defence ministry officials using interceptors
3) He had bribed J&K Minister Ghulam Hassan Mir
4) He had tried to over throw the Omar Abdullah Government
5) Misuse of funds
6) A report submitted by the DGMO in March lists the above and also that he tried to change the line of succession

General's Response

1) There was a Technical Services division but it was not a technical but only a Human Intelligence organization
2) Army has paid not just Ghulam Hassan Mir but many ministers and NGOs who are working for maintaining peace in the state
3) Army has also carried out 8 covert operations outside the country
4) He has denied that interceptors were used to spy on defence ministry officials. Even though he has accepted that 2 of them were sold to a Singapore firm after they were found not worthy(there are reports that 2 interceptors were actually thrown in a river and typically army destroys everything and not sell to others to avoid security issues)
5) He has nothing to do with politics of throwing out the Omar Abdullah Government
6) The 2010 summer stone throwing was stopped purely by the Army
7) The whole controversy has erupted because of him sharing the platform with Modi

Political Parties Response

1) BJP claims that General Singh is targeted because of him sharing platform with Modi and questions why the Government has not acted on the DGMO report which was submitted in March
2) J&K Government has asked Congress to ask the Minister Mir to step down and there has been no response after Singh's interview that almost all ministers are paid and CM knows about it
3) Farooq Abdullah has asked for a CBI enquiry
4) Home Minister has asked General Singh to name the ministers who were bribed

Questions

1) Who gave the authority for General Singh to create such a division? Did he get the approval from Defence Minister/Prime Minister/Cabinet? Isn't the government responsible for approving such new divisions?
2) When RAW has been asking for the covert operations division to be re-started (this was shut down by IK Gujaral) who gave permission to the army to set up a covert operations division?
3) Does it make sense for the army to directly get involved in covert operations in other countries or shouldn't it be left to the RAW ?
4) Shouldn't IB be in-charge of working on internal intelligence and also working with NGOs etc. to ensure peace is maintained? Why was the army directly involved?
5) Why is there no clear demarcation of responsibilities?
6) Is it right for the army to bribe ministers to ensure peace is maintained? Don't the ministers take oath to stand by the constitution of this country? Do they have to be bribed to do that?
7) Understand that there are security implications, shouldn't the Government have acted swiftly and at least released officially what actions were taken? If the report is still being studied, shouldn't the government have reached out to the opposition and appraised them of the situation?
8) When General VK Singh is accused to have done some mischief is it right on the part of BJP to entertain him? Isn't national security of paramount importance to all parties?
9) As usual the Defence minister, is silent... Where is he? I think after the Augusta Westland bribery scandal, he is too shocked to even react to anything (how can a ministry under Mr Clean be accused of corruption? - that's why he is probably thinking)
10) Interceptors - What exactly happened, should come out.
11) Government leaks - Crazy timing.. everyone leaks information, but can't you be a bit more strategic and not leak information just when General Singh shares platform with Modi?
12) What was the armies counter intelligence division doing when all these were happening?

Infosys - Getting all bad press

Infosys has been getting all the bad press for every exit of someone from the organization. You open the papers this morning and you see that Kartik Jayaraman who was the BPO head for Australia has quit and then before that it was Ashok Vemuri who was the North America and Manufacturing head. Before that it was the Latam Head of Infosys BPO. Then there was the sales head Basab who also quit recently. The Infosys spokesperson has rightfully said that they cannot react to every exit other than Senior level.
 
I believe that some of the newspapers (especially ET) created an application which mines LinkedIn and whenever someone changes their current organization from Infosys to something else that becomes news.
 
Infosys at its peak decided to fire Phaneesh Murthy due to the sexual harassment case. There was no major impact even for that. Phaneesh is known for his selling skills and there are many tales of how he had swung many deals with just a single conversation.
 
When Shibulal became the CEO Mohandas Pai quit Infosys. It was given such a huge coverage in all press. Mohandas Pai was the darling of the media during his CFO days and that ensured that his exit had good coverage. It is completely another story that Mohandas Pai, as the HR head, was the man behind iRace which was a huge HR disaster and caused huge attrition in Infosys.
 
Ashok Vemuri who was touted as a possible candidate for being the CEO of Infosys quit recently because he was in a hurry to become a CEO. Becoming a CEO of a much smaller company or waiting for an year or so to get a chance to become a CEO of a larger company is an individual’s choice.
 
Basab Pradhan was made the Sales head when Phaneesh was fired. He quit Infosys in 2005 and joined back in 2011. With the verticilization of the business, the role of corporate level sales head is fussy. Not really sure why he was brought back in 2011. Rightfully he has moved on as I feel a central sales head is not required.
 
Agreed every exit will take with it the customer contacts but end of the day customers work for what  company is rather than just the Execs who they have contact with.
 
Bias in reporting is also stark. When the Infosys BPO Latam Head quit he was replaced by someone from a competition. Also this person has actually rejoined Infosys after being with the competition company for an year. Why that wasn’t mentioned anywhere?
 
Other companies are also seeing Senior level exits. Everywhere people will look for opportunities. Why aren't those reported as much as what happens in Infosys?
 
When was the last time we read about exits from TCS/HCL/Cognizant/Wipro? Shouldn't the media houses have their application which mines LinkedIn looked at these companies also?
 
What has the poor Infosys done to get such coverage for every exit?

My views on our TV News Anchors

Let me start with everyone's favorite Arnab Goswami...

His favorite topics - Pakistan & China
Favorite guests - Boria Majumdar, Maroof Raza
Style - Get at least 8 people on his show and allow only people who toe his line to talk.. others are cut off completely.. most often 30 minutes into the debate, there will be guests, who had not uttered even a word
Most used phrase or should I say most irritating thing that he says - Nation wants to know

Second up - Karan Thapar

His favorite topics - There is nothing like that, he talks about everything
Style - gets 4 guests (or 3 sometimes) and ensures everyone gets a chance to say what they want..
Most irritating thing that he says - can I can I can I can I can I interrupt.. he doesn't allow people to talk anything outside the boundaries that he draws

Next up - Rajdeep Sardesai - Jumping jack

His favorite topics - There is nothing like that, he talks about everything
Favorite guests - Yogeshwar Yadav.. even though he has joined a political party, he comes and conducts surveys for this channel..
Style - He keeps jumping in his seat while talking.. end of the debate, puts up something as editors take.. you will realize then that all the questions that he had asked in the program will be linked exactly to this editors take...
Most irritating thing that he says - Fair enough

Barkha Dutt - Wants to portray herself as the Oprah Winfrey of India.. I have stopped watching her program after the farce show that she conducted by inviting Manu Joseph, Swapan Dasgupta, Dilip padgoankar, Sanjaya Baru for an episode of Buck stops here after the Nadia tapes controversy.. She had no regrets about the lobbying that she was doing.. blaming Outlook and Open magazine instead.. maybe its only that she got caught and lots more journalist could be doing the same thing.. but once she was caught she should have at least stepped aside for sometime..

Three basic questions

There are people claiming that elections and change of guard will take care of everything that is wrong with the economy. All economists and business people are stating that Land Acquisition bill in the current state will cause more harm.. Why is it that their they cannot push their favorite candidate for PM to push for amendments in the bill?

Every time there is a Hindu saint/leader under the radar why does BJP comes all out supporting them? Why do they find a need to support Asaram Bapu? What was the need for Pinky Anand/Subramaniam Swamy to support him?

Every time there is a muslim arrested on terrorism charges why does Congress & SP comes all out supporting them? I was shocked when Mani Shankar Aiyar claims that he doesn't know what IM is.

Utter Craziness all around..

Why the secrecy about the health of our leaders?

Every US presidential candidate has to release their medical records before the elections. This is done primarily to ensure that the people are confident that the President is in a healthy condition and will be able to govern the country for the full term without any issues.

We in India, don't get any information about the health of our leaders. Why is that? There are multiple rumors that go around the country about the health of our leaders. The CM of Tamil Nadu, goes to Kodanad to get treated for some ailment every often. She claims that she goes there for rest but when Advani came calling she had informed that she was under treatment in Kodanat. Why?

Stalin the former Deputy CM goes to London often for treatment. There are rumors that he is suffering from some life threatening decease.

Sonia Gandhi, the leader of UPA goes to US for treatment for what was rumored to be Cancer/pneumonia infection. No one knows what it is.

Only exception in the recent past was when PM underwent bypass and was out of action for nearly a month.

Agreed that we don't vote in presidential style elections but we also need to know whether our leaders are in good health.

Media also don't want to talk about the health of our leaders. Media generally avoids personal side of any leader but that ended when they reported about what ND Tiwari did in the governor's house.

Can we get to know our leaders health through RTI if they are not transparent about their health? I think we should.

Politics at its best - VHP 84 Kosh Yatra

The moment Amit Shah was made the UP in-charge of BJP, one thing became clear. The BJP is keen to win the maximum number of seats from UP which was essential for them to form the government at the center.

Their assumption was that they can do this only by communalizing. Immediately after his appointment Amit Shah said he wants to have the Ram Mandir built at Ayodhya. Modi clearly has a two prong strategy for the 2014 elections, he personally will talk about Development, investments, etc which will attract the middle class and Amit Shah's of the BJP will talk about mandir, 370, uniform civil code, etc which they believe will get them the Hindu votes in bulk. There is some truth to this argument also, as the best performances of BJP in UP were in the 90's when the Ram Mandir movement was very active.

Now coming to the VHP yatra, it seems that the 84 kosh parikrama is held every year in April/May and this year also it has been completed during the same time. Once their original plans were criticized VHP changed this to a padayatra. The parikrama route and the padayatra routes were also different. The padayatra route which was planned was through the sensitive muslim localities.

The UP government did the right thing (even though the last 1 year of their rule has been pathetic in terms of law and order) by banning the rally/yatra/parikrama or whatever they want to call it. They also took the VHP leaders under preventive custody.

Questions

1) Why did the VHP plan this yatra now and try to do it under the guise of a yearly event (even though it got the timing wrong)?
2) Why is the BJP silently supporting this event?


I really hope the people of this country, move away from such communalization and vote on real issues.

Rabble Rousers - Be more sensitive

Couple of things that I wanted to add on to my earlier posts

1) On the posts about killing of 5 Jawans in the Poonch sector, I had mentioned that the army should be given authority to respond to such attacks. Apparently that is already there, which is visible from the protests that Pakistan is making about their Jawans are killed by Indian firing. My question to all the opposition and Mr Goswamis of the world, why are you not talking about such things ?

2) Second is about the Madras Café movie - the government has taken the easy route of washing off their hands stating that theatres are not willing to screen the movie. I had mentioned that the High court has declined to ban the movie. However, all main stream media shouting about no release in TN for Madras Café. I was shocked at seeing that and thought I had missed something in the verdict and was checking it again. All that the high court mentioned was a movie cannot release without the censor certificate. What is news in that? Why do we twist that to state that there is no release for the movie?

Summary

1) Diplomacy should be handled deftly. I am sure the tone that we hear from the current opposition will be entirely different if they are ruling and the ruling party will behave like the current opposition. That's the sad part of our democracy.

2) The media is more interested in sleazy headlines rather than content. This is a real shame.

Madras Cafe - Again no freedom of speech?

In my short blogging life, this is the third time I am writing about lack of freedom of speech. First it was about Amina Wadud and then Thalaivaa and now Madras Café.

There are many fringe elements and some political parties which are asking for a ban on this movie and rightfully the Madurai bench of the Madras High Court has rejected the request to ban this movie.

I don't know the story of the movie but what I hear is that it portrays is how LTTE killed the former Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi.

Everyone is jumping and saying that the movie portrays LTTE in bad light. First of all LTTE is a banned organization under the Unlawful activities prevention act (basically the terrorist act). The ban still continues even though most activities of LTTE stopped after the killing of Prabhakaran in 2009. LTTE and Prabhakaran are charged for Rajiv Gandhi's murder in the courts here.

The usual suspects like Thirumavalavan & Vaiko want to ban the movie and even Karunanidhi wants the government to check if the movie portrays the LTTE in bad light and then take action.

Funny thing is the students have also jumped into this and want the movie to be banned.

What is wrong in portraying a terrorist organization (as per Indian government) in bad light? That's one part of the story.

John Abraham, who is the hero of the movie, has been saying that the wont give into the bullying. And he is right in saying that. He has the right to act in a movie and this movie being censored should be released.

Summary

There is nothing wrong in portraying a terrorist organization(which they are) in bad light and nothing wrong in showing that LTTE killed Rajiv Gandhi(which they did). If the fringe elements have a problem with that, then they should get the ban on LTTE revoked(which they couldn't) and retry Rajiv Gandhi's case (which they cannot).

We definitely need to protect our freedom of speech right which is being abused more and more recently.

 

Why is the west cozying up to Modi?

Whenever any foreign dignitary comes to India they meet the Prime Minister, President and they also make it a point to meet the Opposition leaders. I am sure we had seen leaders meet Sonia Gandhi during the NDA rule and then LK Advani or now Sushma Swaraj/Arun Jaitley during the UPA regime.

Secondly the main purpose of the embassies in different countries is to not just give visas but to understand what is happening in those countries and report back to the head quarters. This is to ensure that they are not blind sighted when a change happens.

Till recently, for the west Modi was just a CM of a state in India. He was ruling Gujarat when the 2002 riots happened. They didn't want to be seen supporting him.

Now he is projecting himself as the next PM candidate even though is party is not willing to say so(at least till date). The UPA is definitely on the way out, which is what all opinion polls also say. The west wants to ensure that they don't have a PM who they don't know about or who they are seen as against. India is an important nation and west cannot afford to have an PM who they openly oppose.

Now a days the governments means business and to win contracts you need to have good relationship.

That is the reason why we see British calling him to UK or the Australians calling him. It is not that they have new found love for Modi.

The TV reporters who are questioning the British MPs or Australians should understand this basic fact before bungling the interview as Nidhi Razdan did in NDTV.

Auto fare rationalization in Chennai

I have stayed for a few days in Bangalore and Hyderabad and one thing that really strikes me is the autos. Every auto I had taken charge by the metre and give back even 1 rupee change. Even if you travel in the night, they just charge the 25% premium which is also fixed.

I am sure anyone who had used Chennai autos will definitely have had bad experiences. I have been shouted at by an auto driver for giving 50 rupees for a 3 kilo meter ride. Nowadays around 15 rupees per kilo meter has become a norm.

Last time the fare was fixed was in 2007 and every auto driver rejected the fare. We were back to heckling. The charge fixed was 14 minimum and 6 for additional kilometer.

Supreme court in its ruling last December had asked the TN government to rationalize the fares by May. Nothing happened till May and again they gave the government 2 more months to fix the fares. Nothing happened and on July 22nd Government asked for 4 more weeks to fix the fares and also to ensure GPS enabled meters.

In the interim private players like Namma Auto have started their services. Namma auto gives you a receipt and they charge a minimum of 25 and 10 for every additional km. They claim that they are making a good profit. There are stories that these auto drivers are beaten up by normal auto drivers. This used to happen when the call taxis started.

The government finally took time to listen to everyone last weekend. The auto unions are asking for 30 rs minimum and 15 for every additional km.

The petrol prices have gone up nearly 50% in the period from 2007 to now. I don't think a 15 rupees per kilometer fare is acceptable to all. Even with inflation of around 10% per year we are looking at an increase to around 11 rupees per kilometer.

Summary

Having lived in Chennai for 37 years and seen what happens usually. The government will fix a fare which is lesser than what the auto unions ask and they will use that excuse to not use meters again.

I wish I see a day when the auto drivers in Chennai do not fleece and don't ask any questions or bargain when they start the ride. Maybe with more propagation of the private players we will get to see such a day.

Skull Cap - Symbolism or there is more to it?

It has almost been 2 years since Narendra Modi refused to wear the skull cap which was offered in a Sadhbhavana fast. Even today it has been quoted as a sign that he is not secular because he refused to wear the skull cap.

Shivraj Singh Chauhan another BJP CM, who is consciously positioning himself as an alternative PM candidate without saying so explicitly, wore a skull cap last week. There were quotes from people asking Modi to learn from Shivraj Chauhan. Does Shivraj Singh Chauhan become secular because he wore a skull cap? 

I strongly oppose Modi's views on many things but is wearing the skull cap or not the only criteria to identify whether someone is secular or not?

There are religions which propose nirvana, should people attain nirvana to prove that they are secular?

Summary

Every religion should co-exist and I don't think someone has to do what others do to show that he/she is secular.

Secularism means that I don't discriminate anyone based on caste/religion  and definitely not that I do what other religion does.