Tokyo 2020 - India at Tokyo 2020

 

After so much anxiety whether the Summer Games will happen and after getting postponed by a year we are just 2 weeks away from the start of Tokyo 2020. 

In this post we will talk about Indian participation in the Olympics we have a huge contingent of 120 athletes participating in this Olympics participating across 18 sports (out of the total 33).

Going by alphabetical order 

Archery - We have the men's team(Atanu Das, Tarundeep Rai, Pravin Jadhav) and Deepika Kumari qualifying for the Games. Disappointment - Women's team missing out. - Total Athletes - 4 

Athletics - We have a 26 member Athletics contingent. 2 Relay teams (4*400 Men's and Mixed relay teams), 6 walkers (4 Men - 3 in 20Km KT ---- Irfan, Rahul Rohila, Sandeep Kumar and 1 in 50KM --- Gurpreet Singh and 2 Women in 20 Km --- Priyanka Goswami and Bhavna Jat), 1 male Steeplechaser(Avinash Sable who was one of the earliest qualifiers), 1 400m Hurdler (MP Jabir), Dutee Chand in the sprints. In the field events we have Neeraj Chopra and Shivpal Singh in Men;s Javelin, M Shreeshankar in Long Jump, Tajinder Pal Toor in Shot put, Kamalpreet Kaur and Seema Punia in Women's Discuss and Annu Rani in Women's Javelin. Disappointment - Womens' Relay team not making it, Hima Das injuries and Tejaswin Shankar missing out in the High Jump. Total Athletes - 26

Badminton - We have Sindhu and Sai Praneeth in the singles and Satwik and Chirag in the Doubles. Disappointment - We had so many stars missing out Saina, Srikanth, in women's Double Ashwinin Ponappa and Siki Reddy. Total Athletes - 4 

Boxing - We have 5 Men (Amit Panghal - Flyweight, Manish Kaushik - Light Weight, Vikas Krishan - Welter Weight, Ashish Kumar - Middle Weight and Satish Kumar - Super Heavyweight) and 4 Women (Mary Kom - Flyweight, Simranjit Kaur - Light Weight, Lovlina Borgohain - Welter Weight and Pooja Rani - Middleweight). This is a very large team we have, not disappointed about anyone missing out except probably Shiva Thapa. Total Athletes - 9

Equestrian - We have Fouaad Mirza qualifying after a long break. We last qualified for Sydney 2000. Total Athletes - 1 

Fencing - Bhavani Devi became the first Indian to qualify for Olympics in Fencing in Women's Sabre. Total Athletes - 1

Field Hockey - We have both the men's and women's team in the Games. Total Athletes - 32

Golf - We have Anirban Lahiri and Udayan Mane in Men's and Aditi Ashok in the Women's. Total Athletes - 3

Gymnastics - We have Pranati Nayak as the only representative. Total Athletes - 1

Judo - We have Sushila Likmabam in the women's 48kg weight category. Total Athletes - 1

Rowing - We have Arjun Lal and Arvind Singh in the Men's Light weight  double skulls category. Total Athletes - 2

Sailing - We are returning to sailing at the games after 12 years. We have Vishnu Saravanan in Men's laser, KC Ganapathy and Varun Thakar in Men's 49er and Nethra Kumanan in Women's Laser Radial events. Total Athletes - 4

Shooting - We have 8 Men (Angad Bhajwa and Mairaj Ahmad Khan in Skeet, Saurabh Chaudhary and Abhishek Verma in 10m Air Pistol, Deepak Kumar and Divyansh Parmar in 10 m Air Rifle, Sanjeev Rajput and Aishwary Tomar in 50m 3 position) and 7 Women ( Manu Bhaker, Yashaswini Deswal in 10m air pistol, Manu Bhaker, Rahi Sarnobat in 25 m pistol, Apurvi Chandela and Elavenil Valarivan in 10 m Air Rifle, Anjum Modgil and Tejaswini Sawant in 50m 3 position). Disappointment - No participation in 25m Rapid Pistol or Trap events. Total Athletes - 15

Swimming - We have 2 men qualifying for the first time - Srihari Nataraj(100m Backstroke) and Sajan Prakash(200 Butterfly). We also got Maana Patel (100m Backstroke) getting through with the Universality Quota. Total Athletes - 3

Table Tennis - We have 2 men (Sharath Kamal Achanta, Sathiyan) and 2 women (Manika Batra and Sutirtha Mukherjee). Total Athletes - 4

Tennis - We have Sania Mirza and Ankita Rana in the women's doubles. Total Athletes - 2

Weighlifting - We have Mirabhai Chanu in the Women's 49kg category. Disappointment - No male lifters, not that they were competitive in any of the previous games. Total Athletes - 1

Wrestling - We have 3 Men (Ravi Kumar Dahiya - 57kg, Bajrang Punia - 65kg, Deepak Punia - 86kg) and 4 women (Seema Bisla - 50kg, Vinesh Phogat - 53kg, Anshu Malik - 57kg and Sonam Malik - 62kg). Total Athletes - 7 

 

Next post will be on who among these 120 have a good chance of winning medals.

My tryst with covid - luckily was uneventful...

The onset 

On the afternoon of 10th of September I started having fever. I took a paracetamol tablet on the night of 10th... fever reduced... Again the next day morning fever crossed 101 and I took paracetamol on 11th morning and night. After I took the tablet fever reduced but to come back after few hours. 

I started isolating myself from 10th itself. My wife alone used to come inside the room, she was thinking I was over reacting... 

On the 12th morning my temperature reduced to normal levels. I was still isolating myself and My wife said you get tested and get out of the room (she felt it was normal fever). I had body pain from 11th and I thought it was a normal body pain we get during viral fever. From 11th I started having mild cold also. 

Testing

Decided that we have nothing to lose by getting tested. I called up covid helpline asking if there are any fever clinics being held in my area on that day. They asked me to check with corporation helpline. I was suggested to go to the nearest Primary health center and that till 3pm doctors will be there.  I drove down to the PHC and told them my symptoms. They asked if I want to take covid test and I said yes. My temperature was only 97.4 when I went there. They didn't even ask why I should get tested and just took my address and phone number and took sample (nasal and throat swabs). 

They said result will come only after 2 days. That is the only disadvantage of getting tested at the government facilities. Delay in the results.. However, it is free. They do share results even if it's negative. Earlier they used to call only if you are positive. 

They also gave me medication for fever, cold and some multivitamins. Even the medicines were free. 

I continued to self isolate and my wife alone was coming into my room. My mother and kids used to stay outside the room. I was given food from outside and I was washing those utensils and letting them dry in sunlight. 

One thing I never miss are the F1 races. Sadly had to stay inside the room and follow only online updates. Missed watching my favorite Kimi score his first points of the season. 

Results Day

Monday morning (14th) I was woken up by a call from Chennai corporation. They asked if I had given covid test recently and I said yes and they asked where is my house location. I asked tell me the results first. They said it has come positive. Even though we read up a lot we are always scrambling as to what to do when it hits us. 

The local ward sanitation inspector called up and checked what all I did the previous week and if I was going to work. I said I used to go for grocery shopping alone. That's all the effort on contract tracing. 

My first worry was about my mom, who is 69 and has other comorbidies. I was really worried. I decided to get all other family members immediately tested. This time didn't want to wait 2 days so called up a private lab and they arranged for a home pick up for all of them. 

My wife had already started for work when the results came. Called her once she reached her work place and asked her to come back home. She got back home immediately. She started developing fever in the afternoon. Was even more worried about my mom. 

One of my neighbors had tested positive in May and he got treated at Soorya hospital in Vadapalani. Asked him to refer to the doctor and he spoke to the doctor and I drove down to the hospital. They took CT scan and luckily it was a mild infection and they gave me a score of 5/40 (which is the lowest). I was put on 2 antibiotics including Azithromycin for 5 days. Doctor asked me to come back after 3 days. Told me I can stay in home quarantine. 

Around 3pm that afternoon the private lab person came and took samples for the others in the family. I was told results will come around midnight. Corporation officials called and said they can arrange for tests for others but I told them I didn't want to wait for 2 days for them so went ahead with the tests. It costed 3500 per person.

Wife started isolating herself in another room and kids were staying in my mother's room. 

By 14th my body pain also reduced and I was only having a mild cold. Wife started having cold from night. I was really worried. 

Agonizing wait continued for the results of the test for family members. 

Around midnight got results for mom and kids and they all tested negative. It was huge relief that my mom was negative. 

Wife's result alone didn't come along with it. I was told the tests are still going on. After waiting for another 40 minutes got wife's results and she tested positive. Corporation staff also called in the morning to inform us about the results. For my wife they got details of her work place as she was working. However, not sure if they reached out to her colleagues. 

With 2 members in the family tested positive didn't want to risk others contacting from both of us. Decided it is better to send them to my sister's place. Sister came in the morning and took them to their place. There also they were quarantined in 1 room for a week. 

After mom and kids left took wife to the same hospital. She also got a CT scan done. She also got the same score of 5/40 and was prescribed same medication. My mom had cooked food for the day before she left and we managed with that for the day. 

The Scare

Got a call from my sister at 4am on 16th stating that my 7 year old daughter is having fever for the last 1 hour. I had asked my mom to pack paracetamol syrup and cough syrup for kids when she went to my sister's place but in all the hurry she missed it. Called up my cousin and asked him to handover paracetamol at my sister's house immediately. Luckily he had an unopened bottle with him which he immediately handed over. He is someone I can call up for anything anytime. 

She continued to run a temperature of 99+ even after paracetamol. I was worried again about my mom. Asked my sister to keep my daughter in a separate room away from my mom. It was becoming a mess for my sister. 

I called up the same doctor again he asked me to bring my daughter and we can do a CT scan,  if required. Asked my sister to bring my daughter directly to the hospital and I again went for the 3rd day in a row to the same hospital. Decided that if there are issues will bring daughter to my house and if things are normal she will return to my sister's place. 

Doctor checked and said her lungs are clear so she wouldn't even require a CT scan. That was a huge relief. The doctor put her on Azithromycin, paracetamol and zinc supplements. Heard from others that all doctors are giving Azithromycin by default. 

She didn't have fever when we we reached the hospital. She became normal late afternoon on the same day. That was a huge relief for us. 

The Recovery

Wife and I started the medication that was prescribed and we also added zinc and vitamin c supplements. We were also doing salt water gargling and steaming. I was having mild cold and wife was coughing a bit. Wife also gave me either lemon and ginger water or kabasara kudineer for morning and milk with turmeric and pepper in the evening. 

The corporation folks called us twice daily, once for me and once for my wife. They will check if everything is fine and also to check if we required any help. On the first day they said we had discard used masks only in the yellow covers. When I told them that we hadn't received any yellow covers, they ensured it was delivered to us the next day. They also checked if we had oximeter, I had purchased one few days back and it came handy. 

When my neighbor was tested positive we had a huge board outside our apartment complex. However for us they just stuck a small poster outside my flat. One for me and one for my wife. 

Corporation folks also came and sprayed disinfectant twice (once for me and once for my wife). They did it in all the common areas. I didn't want to allow anyone inside so they sprayed outside my flats and in common areas. 

Corporation Staff spraying disinfectant and the poster outside my flat

There was also a dedicated volunteer whose number was given to us and was told that they will help in getting anything for us. I preferred calling my cousin instead and he got me whatever I wanted. 

I continued to have mild cold and wife had mild cough. Other than that we were normal. 

Since I was already working from home I started working from 15th itself. However, I was taking it light. Shutdown by 6pm for the first week and taking only important calls after 6pm. Second week was almost back to normal.

Went back to the hospital for review on 18th. Doctor stopped the antibiotics after initial 5 days and just gave us multivitamins and antiallergic medication. Wife alone was asked to continue cough syrup as she still had cough. He asked us to come back after a week and said we will do a antibody test.  

Initially we thought we will not cook and order food but later decided it's not healthy and wife started cooking. We still ordered food once in a while. My aunt gave us huge quantities of dosa batter twice which came in very handy. We also ordered huge quantities of fruits especially once with vitamin c. Whatever we ordered was left outside my flats and we picked it up after the delivery agent left. 

Neighbors were kind enough to offer food for us but since both of us were almost normal we didn't want to bother them. 

Even though me and my wife were the only ones at home, we restricted ourselves to one bedroom and kitchen. We kept other rooms locked up. We also used very limited utensils. We only opened the door once in the morning to pick up milk and paper and maybe if there are any deliveries. Otherwise we were in one room but were maintaining social distancing.

Things became a routine and the next one week flew away. Amazon prime also helped, we were both watching some movie or other during evenings. My cold also went away. Wife alone had a bit of cough. While speaking to another doctor he informed that most patients develop complications if they have vitamin d deficiency. Wife was deficient the last time we checked and he suggested that even my wife's cough could be due to that. Immediately got vitamin d supplements and started taking it. 

My boss was also positive around the same time as me and we were exchanging notes. He had a bit more severe infection but he continued to stay at home and was getting treated. 

The main issue was being away from the kids especially for my wife as it was the first time she was away from them. Only solace was the regular video calls. My kids used to give detailed updated to their mom about their online classes and what food they had etc. To me my daughter had only one question daily - appa when can I come back home. It was very difficult to answer that question for me. Telling her to be away from home was very difficult for me. 

Antibody Test

We went back to the hospital on 25th for the review. It was the 16th day from the onset of fever for me and 12th day for my wife so wife was asked to wait till she completes 14 days to get tested. Doctor asked to give the blood samples and asked to come back after the results come in the evening. Gave samples and came back home. Another day of agonizing wait. Went back to hospital in the evening for the results. I had started developing enough antibodies. Even though he suggested that we can bring back the family after wife completes 14 days we didn't want to risk it. So one more week of being away from kids. 

He said I can be normal going forward. He also suggested that wife can be normal after she completes 14 days. Wife asked if I should be away from her but doctor said he has antibodies so he need not worry. Asked if we need to do anything he said nothing. All medications are stopped and for wife alone he said we can continue cough syrup, if required. 

Wife's cough also started reducing from 24th and she became almost normal from 28th. 

We got the house and car disinfected on 3rd. Washed all utensils that we used and dried everything in the sun. Kids came back home on the evening of 3rd of October, ending almost 3 weeks of separation. 

Key Lessons

• Even though we feel we are prepared by reading about the disease, when we actually get the disease you are left scrambling(This list may help you)
• Symptoms vary from person to person - I had 1.5 days fever and mild cold for a few days, wife had 1 day fever and cough for a few days, one of my relative had mainly diarrhea.. While losing sense of smell and taste is a definite symptom, not everyone loses them. Me and wife never lost the sense of smell and taste
• I was always wearing mask when I stepped out of the house, washed my hands when I came back home and used sanitizers in every shop that I stepped in. Restricted my outing to basic necessities. Even then I got infected. I can say all those saved me for 6 months. I have no clue of how and where I got infected
• Identify private labs who can come and take test for your family members in case you test positive
• Identify which hospital and doctor you will go to in case you test positive. Everyone who test positive will start with mild symptoms. This is something that most hospitals can definitely take care as the protocols are pretty standard
• In case you develop complications decide which hospital you would want to get admitted to. I heard government hospitals care is very good for covid especially Omandurar
• Most large private hospitals straight away say that they don't have vacancies in covid wards. In case you prefer private hospitals, identify contacts who can help in getting beds 
• In case you need hospitalization be prepared to spend minimum of 2-3 lakhs. Even if you don't develop complications and decide home isolation is not possible most hospitals charge that much. Even if you have Insurance,  charges towards the masks, PPE for doctors are not claimable with most insurance products - that itself will be minimum 25-30% of the overall expense
• Always have someone who you call up for help at any point of time either a friend, neighbor or relative who lives nearby. While we can get anything delivered to home we may need something in the middle of the night
• Situation in terms of cases is much higher than what we feel. I used to see at least 3-4 other patients waiting for the doctor during the 10-15 minutes I was at the hospital
• You feel hungry a lot. Always have something in your isolation room to snack on
• Oxygen support is very common for many patients. My brother-in-law was positive before us and he was given oxygen support for a couple of days 
• In case you develop any complications most doctors will put you through all approved medical interventions - remdisivier, dexamethasone, etc., not worrying about immediate side effects, as their only concern is to avoid cytokine storm
• There were many patients on ventilator support or oxygen support and my doctor was casual about it and only thing that they were keen on is weening away the patients from ventilator
• Treatment protocols are highly reactive as the doctors are still learning about the disease. In case you have mild symptoms they start with mild antibiotics and paracetamol. They keep adding oxygen support, remdisivier and steriods, if complications develop
• Chennai corporation was diligent in checking on us daily 
• One important lesson if anyone is self isolating before test, have them wear mask full time and anyone interacting with them should also wear mask. Maybe my wife would not have got infected if both of us wore masks 
• Take Vitamin D supplements as there are more studies that people are developing complications if they are Vitamin D deficient. You have nothing to lose
• Lastly don't be worried about the disease, most of us will only have a mild infection. Even if there are complications most of us will get cured with very little time in the hospital

Stay safe

Views on Nirmala Sitaraman's defense of CAA/NRC

Watched the interview of Nirmala Sitharaman in one of the tamil channels defending the CAA/NRC. Her key views 

1) This is amendment is primarily targeted for those who came to India during the India Pakistan wars and are staying for 60-70 years without any benefit

2) As this is primarily targeted for those affected during the wars we are not looking at others - be it Sri Lankan tamils etc. 

3) NRC is not discussed yet so why are we talking about it

4) Protest you can but opposition is stoking violence and the Congress President by stating she stands with the protesters is only supporting violence 

My views 

1) If the amendment is targeted only at those affected by the wars and who came at that time, what is Afghanistan doing in that list? Secondly the cut off date is 2014 and not 1971 war? 

2) The HM was clearly stating that the NRC is part of the whole process and that NRC will follow CAA. He was categorical in asking all of us to understand the chronological order of these 

3) Congress President stating that she supports those protesting doesn't mean she supports violence. Does it mean those who are just condoning the violence (like the PM) don't want anyone to protest peacefully? What stupid logic is this?

Really surprised that a senior journalist like Karthigaichelvan didn't bother to raise follow up questions to the minister. 

Rajnikanth's Entry to Politics - Short take

What was talked about from mid 90's is finally happening in the end of 2017. Rajnikanth has decided to enter politics by forming a separate party and has announced that he will face the assembly elections whenever they happen next. To an extent he also clarified why he took so long to make this decision. Whether it is convincing enough is another matter.

He claims he was pushed to this decision based on the happenings in the last one year. He has also promised that if he cannot deliver on poll promises he will resign in 3 years.

He made some right noises that he is more about ensuring corrupt free government, with people more frustrated with the levels of corruption this statement would be well received.

Very first mistake according to me is - claiming that he will not do anything till party is formed at the right time before assembly elections. Already people are bit irritated that he took this long to take this decision and even now if it's not active from day one not sure how well that will be received.

Even though I personally feel this is a very long overdue decision, not sure how well he will be effective and accepted as a leader.

Given the fact that Jayalithaa and Karunanidhi are not active and the fact that Stalin was not able to capitalize on the issues in Admk is a clear indication that the people of Tamil Nadu are looking for options. Will Rajnikanth be able to fill the void left by the two leaders ? - Only time will tell.

Wishing him well in his new journey. 

RK Nagar Elections - What's at Stake

RK Nagar elections are scheduled for 21st December and this is already more than 6 months delayed. (Any seat cannot be vacant for more than 6 months). EC declared that the EPS-OPS gang will keep the 2 leaves symbol and the next day announced the election date. 

EC taking so long to decide on who gets this and the delayed bye-elections doesn't augur well to project their so called independence. 

Even though we had two independents who were getting more media coverage - Vishal and Deepa - don't think they had any chance in the elections. Vishal might have got few votes because of him being a Telugu and Deepa might have got few votes because of sympathy for Jayalalithaa but they had no chance of winning any elections. 

The problem for any leader, is the people surrounding them. Case in point is Deepa, she was over hyped by the people around her and she thought she is the reincarnation of Jayalalithaa. Initially OPS group (in February during the initial revolt against Sasi clan) also fell for the hype but they realized their mistake and started distancing from her. Now with her nomination papers also rejected its time to put her to political oblivion. Vishal's case may play out differently, we will wait and watch. 

Coming to the key players and what's at stake for each of them. 

Starting with DMK - This is a must win situation for Stalin. It is a test of his leadership. With no Jayalalithaa ADMK is doesn't have the same magic. ADMK still has the government machinery but losing this election will be a huge disgrace for Stalin. The party, especially his family which is not happy with his leadership will start revolting and it will be very difficult for Stalin to manage them if he loses this election. With VCK support (which has considerable backing in north madras) their chances have increased. 

EPS - OPS - Madhusudhanan their candidate, is the presidium chairman of the party. He is a local of the constituency and has good cadre backing. However, EPS and OPS merger is coming apart at the seams and any sabotage from within will be a complete disaster for his chances. Losing this election might be a loss of face for the party, I don't think they would mind much. 

TTV -  There is so much hatred among people for the Sasi clan. The main objective of TTV is not win the election but to get at least 1 vote more than Madhusudhanan. His main trump card will be money power, which is what they tried in April also. In case he doesn't get more votes than Madhusudhanan, it will become more difficult to hold on to the few leaders he has now. They will all switch to the other side, already few jumped ship once the symbol went to the other side. In case he gets more seats than Madhusudhanan, he will use that to position his group as the real ADMK, which will be a disaster for EPS-OPS gang. 

All in all Stalin has more to lose than anyone else. The fight between TTV and Madhusudhanan is more about who gets more seats than the other. 

PS : There is another party BJP, less said about them better. No way they will even get their deposit back. 

New Actor Politicians of TN - What 1 year has done to TN Politics

Post September 22nd of last year (It is exactly 1 year since JJ was admitted in Apollo) things have changed drastically in TN politics. Jayalalithaa spent around 75 days in the hospital before passing away on December 5th of 2016. The other veteran of TN politics, Karunanidhi is sick and is completely out of action. 

ADMK is in doldrums and there is considerable hate against the Sasi clan among the people. Feb 7th when OPS revolted against Sasi there was little bit of hope but with his inability to pull more MLAs into his side that also fizzled out. Now with EPS being the CM and OPS merging back things are back to square one for the party. EPS and OPS need some strong backing to take on the clan and that they are currently getting from BJP which hopes to make a headway into TN. 

DMK is a bit clueless without MK. Stalin is not able to make a decisive move on bringing down the government. Things would be completely different if MK was still active. DMK still is in a much better situation that ADMK.

While TN was expecting and waiting for 22 years for Rajnikanth to enter politics looks like his contemporary Kamal will enter politics before him. 

Rajni has been giving mixed signals for last 22 years, his golden opportunity was in 1996. To me that blame should also go the late PM PVN Rao who should have backed him wholeheartedly and that would have also ensured Congress at least managed it's vote bank if note increased the same. They had around 15% vote back then. In 1996 with his backing TMC and Congress rode on the anti-incumbency that Jayalalithaa faced. She was decimated even losing her own seat. In 2004 he gave a statement opposing PMK which was part of the DMK Congress alliance, but they won all seats that they contested. That would have been clear indicator for Rajni that his pull among the people was waning. There is also a popular view that he makes political statements before release of his movies. 

In July of this year he met with his fans and has asked them to be ready and they will be called when there is war. We will have to see if he really takes the plunge this time. 

Kamal on the other hand was harassed during the release of his Viswaroopam movie. That anger against Sasi clan and JJ is also there. With the passing away of Jaya that anger is coming out in the open. He is making all right noises in terms of his tapping into popular sentiments like NEET opposition, Corruption, etc.

With the two main leaders of the two main parties in TN out of action, there is definite political vacuum. This is what the likes of Rajni, Kamal and also BJP want to occupy. 

Let us look at what they can accomplish in electoral politics

Rajni - I am still not convinced if he will really enter politics. Even if he enters, he doesn't have the same popularity which he had in 1996. His health and age will also be against him. In case he really enters, he can at best get 10-15% of the votes which will not help him win many seats to be a serious contender. He will slowly go the Vijayakanth way. 

Kamal - He is an elitist. I am really not sure how he will be able to connect with general public. Some people are joking that people cannot understand his tweets, how are they going to understand his policies. Seriously he has met Kerala CM and Delhi CM and claiming that all these are learning process. Post his meeting with Kejriwal the statements indicate he might move closer towards AAP. AAP has not had any impact in TN so not sure what Kamal can do to them. Kejriwal is also someone who is strong headed person and Kamal is also similar in character, so both of them working together would also be very difficult. Communists are not an option at all. Starting his own party he will not get more than 2-3% vote share. 

I don't think both coming together and forming a party would also change things drastically. They can at best become the second largest party in the coming elections. 

BJP - There is complete hatred among the people for the saffron party, all their efforts to occupy the space of ADMK is coming to naught. NEET, Cauvery, Hindi, Demon, GST, Petrol there are so many things for which people are angry about BJP. It is very difficult for them to make any entry, their best hope is tag along with ADMK and win few seats. 

DMK should move quickly to ensure the current government falls and elections are held. They will sweep the elections if they are held any time soon. I don't think they would want to risk allowing the ADMK the full term. We don't know what can happen in those 3.5 years. 

ADMK Saga - Trying to answer few questions

With the two factions of the ADMK merging together yesterday, there are quite a few questions that remain. Trying to answer them

1) What is BJP trying to do by merging these two factions? 
2) What is it that OPS faction going to gain from this merger?
3) What is it that the EPS faction going to gain from this merger? 
4) Is the Sasi clan completely out of the equation? 
5) Who gains in the overall scheme of things? 

Background:

When JJ was admitted to the Apollo hospitals in September, Panneerselvam was made to take over her responsibilities. When she eventually passed away on December 5th Panneerselvam took over the government and Sasikala became the General Secretary of the party. OPS's gaining popularity didn't go well with the Sasikala clan and they decided to step in. OPS resigned and then revolted against the clan. The Governor played along and didn't swear Sasikala in as the CM even though she had the majority. Sasikala was convicted in the DA case and went to jail, she appointed her dummy EPS as the CM. 

Come April when the RK Nagar by-election was to be held TTV Dhinakaran decided to contest and was keen to take over the CM post. Obviously once in power no one wants to let go, which was the first trigger for EPS. The elections were cancelled due to large scale bribing of voters and TTV also went to jail for the trying to bribe the EC for a favorable verdict in the Party symbol case. 

Once TTV was out of picture EPS consolidated his position among the party MLAs and took control of the government. OPS who revolted against the clan was slowly becoming irrelevant. He was losing hold of the small group of MLAs that he had. OPS was originally backed by BJP hoping that he would be able to break the MLAs but the clan was too smart for that. 

It is interesting game of multiple double crosses and interesting twists.. 
First was OPS revolting against the clan with support from BJP 
Then came the EPS revolting against the clan that also with support from BJP 
Then now TTV stumping the post merger euphoria with his 19 MLAs withdrawing support to the government. 

Coming to the questions that we wanted to answer at the beginning of the post 

What is BJP trying to do by merging these two factions? 

BJP cannot repeat the 2014 success of absolute majority, that is the main issue that they want to address. That is the reason behind Nitish coming out of the mahagadbhandan. That is the reason they want to align with ADMK. However, they also don't want to be seen aligning with the clan. Their hope is that with the merged entity ADMK will be able to win many seats and by aligning with them they will get few seats in TN. 

ADMK will definitely lose badly in the next parliament and assembly election. When things are so obvious not sure why BJP is hell bent on aligning with ADMK, maybe they thought few seats are better than nothing. DMK is not a party which hadn't aligned with BJP earlier, so it wouldn't have been difficult to get them on board, not sure why they didn't try it. All that they need are few raids and DMK will come around. 

What is it that the OPS faction going to gain from this merger ?

OPS was the star back in February when he revolted and with Sasi being convicted many had hoped that MLAs will move towards him. That didn't happen. EPS became stronger and slowly OPS was being irrelevant. There were also rumors that some of his MLAs were willing to move to EPS gang. Can't question them also, they want to enjoy power when it lasts. He merger only to ensure he stays relevant but becoming a Deputy CM and becoming the chief convener of the co-ordination committee of the party, not sure if he can continue to be relevant. Only saving grace was the acceptance of his two demands of sidelining the clan and ordering an inquiry into JJ's death, those two he can claim as face saver. 

What is it that the EPS faction going to gain from this merger? 

EPS has established himself as the leader of the government and has backing of most MLAs. One big advantage he has is the caste backing and the fact that western TN where he is from and where his caste is predominant has been voting ADMK in bulk in the last few elections. He can be the CM till TTV revolts and he has complete backing of BJP now that he has established himself as the leader. Now he also has OPS on his side who was seen as someone with a clean image. 

Is the Sasi clan completely out of the equation? 

I would love to say so, but don't think so. They are well entrenched in the party and in the administration. There are many people from their caste who are present in all levels in the government and bureaucracy. That being the case they can undermine anyone. Only way they can be controlled is if Modi conducts more raids on the gang, which will happen. I won't be surprised if the 19 MLAs who are supporting the clan are targeted. Hearing that they are already packed off to some resort to ensure that Sasikala is not removed from the party. Are they ready to take on the center and bring down the government? They must have something up their sleeve to do that, not sure what that is. 

Who gains in the overall scheme of things? 

ADMK with a leader like MGR or JJ is completely different from the ADMK run by this motley crew. With the merger, maybe the hardcore party members will vote for ADMK but the general public is not going to vote for ADMK or their alliance which in this case will be BJP. DMK will be the only gainer in this whole mess. They are also aware of that, that is the reason they don't want to be seen as opportunistic in bringing down the government. 

Things are changing so fast, the packing off of the TTV supporting MLAs happened after I started this blog. Stalin has asked Governor to ask EPS to prove his majority. Things are changing so fast. Interesting times ahead.