With the two factions of the ADMK merging together yesterday, there are quite a few questions that remain. Trying to answer them
1) What is BJP trying to do by merging these two factions?
2) What is it that OPS faction going to gain from this merger?
3) What is it that the EPS faction going to gain from this merger?
4) Is the Sasi clan completely out of the equation?
5) Who gains in the overall scheme of things?
Background:
When JJ was admitted to the Apollo hospitals in September, Panneerselvam was made to take over her responsibilities. When she eventually passed away on December 5th Panneerselvam took over the government and Sasikala became the General Secretary of the party. OPS's gaining popularity didn't go well with the Sasikala clan and they decided to step in. OPS resigned and then revolted against the clan. The Governor played along and didn't swear Sasikala in as the CM even though she had the majority. Sasikala was convicted in the DA case and went to jail, she appointed her dummy EPS as the CM.
Come April when the RK Nagar by-election was to be held TTV Dhinakaran decided to contest and was keen to take over the CM post. Obviously once in power no one wants to let go, which was the first trigger for EPS. The elections were cancelled due to large scale bribing of voters and TTV also went to jail for the trying to bribe the EC for a favorable verdict in the Party symbol case.
Once TTV was out of picture EPS consolidated his position among the party MLAs and took control of the government. OPS who revolted against the clan was slowly becoming irrelevant. He was losing hold of the small group of MLAs that he had. OPS was originally backed by BJP hoping that he would be able to break the MLAs but the clan was too smart for that.
It is interesting game of multiple double crosses and interesting twists..
First was OPS revolting against the clan with support from BJP
Then came the EPS revolting against the clan that also with support from BJP
Then now TTV stumping the post merger euphoria with his 19 MLAs withdrawing support to the government.
Coming to the questions that we wanted to answer at the beginning of the post
What is BJP trying to do by merging these two factions?
BJP cannot repeat the 2014 success of absolute majority, that is the main issue that they want to address. That is the reason behind Nitish coming out of the mahagadbhandan. That is the reason they want to align with ADMK. However, they also don't want to be seen aligning with the clan. Their hope is that with the merged entity ADMK will be able to win many seats and by aligning with them they will get few seats in TN.
ADMK will definitely lose badly in the next parliament and assembly election. When things are so obvious not sure why BJP is hell bent on aligning with ADMK, maybe they thought few seats are better than nothing. DMK is not a party which hadn't aligned with BJP earlier, so it wouldn't have been difficult to get them on board, not sure why they didn't try it. All that they need are few raids and DMK will come around.
What is it that the OPS faction going to gain from this merger ?
OPS was the star back in February when he revolted and with Sasi being convicted many had hoped that MLAs will move towards him. That didn't happen. EPS became stronger and slowly OPS was being irrelevant. There were also rumors that some of his MLAs were willing to move to EPS gang. Can't question them also, they want to enjoy power when it lasts. He merger only to ensure he stays relevant but becoming a Deputy CM and becoming the chief convener of the co-ordination committee of the party, not sure if he can continue to be relevant. Only saving grace was the acceptance of his two demands of sidelining the clan and ordering an inquiry into JJ's death, those two he can claim as face saver.
What is it that the EPS faction going to gain from this merger?
EPS has established himself as the leader of the government and has backing of most MLAs. One big advantage he has is the caste backing and the fact that western TN where he is from and where his caste is predominant has been voting ADMK in bulk in the last few elections. He can be the CM till TTV revolts and he has complete backing of BJP now that he has established himself as the leader. Now he also has OPS on his side who was seen as someone with a clean image.
1) What is BJP trying to do by merging these two factions?
2) What is it that OPS faction going to gain from this merger?
3) What is it that the EPS faction going to gain from this merger?
4) Is the Sasi clan completely out of the equation?
5) Who gains in the overall scheme of things?
Background:
When JJ was admitted to the Apollo hospitals in September, Panneerselvam was made to take over her responsibilities. When she eventually passed away on December 5th Panneerselvam took over the government and Sasikala became the General Secretary of the party. OPS's gaining popularity didn't go well with the Sasikala clan and they decided to step in. OPS resigned and then revolted against the clan. The Governor played along and didn't swear Sasikala in as the CM even though she had the majority. Sasikala was convicted in the DA case and went to jail, she appointed her dummy EPS as the CM.
Come April when the RK Nagar by-election was to be held TTV Dhinakaran decided to contest and was keen to take over the CM post. Obviously once in power no one wants to let go, which was the first trigger for EPS. The elections were cancelled due to large scale bribing of voters and TTV also went to jail for the trying to bribe the EC for a favorable verdict in the Party symbol case.
Once TTV was out of picture EPS consolidated his position among the party MLAs and took control of the government. OPS who revolted against the clan was slowly becoming irrelevant. He was losing hold of the small group of MLAs that he had. OPS was originally backed by BJP hoping that he would be able to break the MLAs but the clan was too smart for that.
It is interesting game of multiple double crosses and interesting twists..
First was OPS revolting against the clan with support from BJP
Then came the EPS revolting against the clan that also with support from BJP
Then now TTV stumping the post merger euphoria with his 19 MLAs withdrawing support to the government.
Coming to the questions that we wanted to answer at the beginning of the post
What is BJP trying to do by merging these two factions?
BJP cannot repeat the 2014 success of absolute majority, that is the main issue that they want to address. That is the reason behind Nitish coming out of the mahagadbhandan. That is the reason they want to align with ADMK. However, they also don't want to be seen aligning with the clan. Their hope is that with the merged entity ADMK will be able to win many seats and by aligning with them they will get few seats in TN.
ADMK will definitely lose badly in the next parliament and assembly election. When things are so obvious not sure why BJP is hell bent on aligning with ADMK, maybe they thought few seats are better than nothing. DMK is not a party which hadn't aligned with BJP earlier, so it wouldn't have been difficult to get them on board, not sure why they didn't try it. All that they need are few raids and DMK will come around.
What is it that the OPS faction going to gain from this merger ?
OPS was the star back in February when he revolted and with Sasi being convicted many had hoped that MLAs will move towards him. That didn't happen. EPS became stronger and slowly OPS was being irrelevant. There were also rumors that some of his MLAs were willing to move to EPS gang. Can't question them also, they want to enjoy power when it lasts. He merger only to ensure he stays relevant but becoming a Deputy CM and becoming the chief convener of the co-ordination committee of the party, not sure if he can continue to be relevant. Only saving grace was the acceptance of his two demands of sidelining the clan and ordering an inquiry into JJ's death, those two he can claim as face saver.
What is it that the EPS faction going to gain from this merger?
EPS has established himself as the leader of the government and has backing of most MLAs. One big advantage he has is the caste backing and the fact that western TN where he is from and where his caste is predominant has been voting ADMK in bulk in the last few elections. He can be the CM till TTV revolts and he has complete backing of BJP now that he has established himself as the leader. Now he also has OPS on his side who was seen as someone with a clean image.
Is the Sasi clan completely out of the equation?
I would love to say so, but don't think so. They are well entrenched in the party and in the administration. There are many people from their caste who are present in all levels in the government and bureaucracy. That being the case they can undermine anyone. Only way they can be controlled is if Modi conducts more raids on the gang, which will happen. I won't be surprised if the 19 MLAs who are supporting the clan are targeted. Hearing that they are already packed off to some resort to ensure that Sasikala is not removed from the party. Are they ready to take on the center and bring down the government? They must have something up their sleeve to do that, not sure what that is.
Who gains in the overall scheme of things?
ADMK with a leader like MGR or JJ is completely different from the ADMK run by this motley crew. With the merger, maybe the hardcore party members will vote for ADMK but the general public is not going to vote for ADMK or their alliance which in this case will be BJP. DMK will be the only gainer in this whole mess. They are also aware of that, that is the reason they don't want to be seen as opportunistic in bringing down the government.
Things are changing so fast, the packing off of the TTV supporting MLAs happened after I started this blog. Stalin has asked Governor to ask EPS to prove his majority. Things are changing so fast. Interesting times ahead.
