Post Conviction Surprise and the short lived happiness - OPS vs VKS

Sasikala, Sudhakaran and Elavarasi were convicted by the Supreme Court this morning. 

The OPS camp was expecting that the MLAs will move out of the resort and support him. At least that is the reading many people had. It still stays at 11 including OPS. 

It is no surprise that Sasikala has propped up Edapadi Palanisamy as her proxy. It was expected that someone will be propped up and it is Edapadi who was even talked about immediately after Jaya's death. 

The real surprise in all this is that the MLAs have still stayed with Sasikala. When Jaya was alive it was a completely different case, it is a huge surprise that MLAs are staying with Sasikala. Not really sure what is the hold that she has on the entire MLAs. Is it that the many of them were selected by her as candidates which is the reason for this? 

The governor has to either accept Edapadi's claim and swear him in or give OPS also an opportunity to prove his majority. For that OPS has to prove that he has more MLAs than the 11. 

OPS camp has to move aggressively in convincing the MLAs to move to his side, otherwise his game is over. 

The general public were against not just Sasikala but her entire clan. With Edapadi being her proxy the government will be completely run by her family. 

People were happy with the verdict this morning but with the MLAs supporting Sasikala's proxy and their happiness looks to be short lived. 

Tamil Nadu politics - OPS Vs VKS - Options and way forward

Background : 

December 5th or for that matter September 22nd changed the face of politics in Tamil Nadu. With Jayalalithaa being admitted in hospital and her subsequent demise things took a dramatic change in ADMK and Tamil Nadu politics. 

Going by the statements made by OPS recently, Sasikala requested him to take over the CM position as he had been 2 time CM and anyone else would cause the trouble in the party leading to a split in the party. The other side has not issued any denial so far at least. 

OPS had been performing well especially his handling of the Vardah cyclone, to a large extent the jalikattu protest (except the last day violence), the way he went to AP to speak to Chandrababu Naidu to ensure water is released were all very good. He was also very accessible to all especially the officials and things were going in the right direction. 

Also I was personally happy to see the ruling party and opposition talking to each other in a civilized manner (funnily Sasikala quoted that as the reason for sacking OPS). 

Sasikala took over the position of General secretary in late December and it was well known that she will also want to take over as CM eventually. When she called for the legislative party meeting on 5th of February it was a forgone conclusion that she will get elected as the CM. As expected the party MLAs selected her as the CM. Panneerselvam submitted his resignation and also proposed her name for the position of leader of the Legislative party and eventually the CM. 

Even though there was absolutely no public or cadre support for Sasikala people were more or less resigned to the fact that she is the CM. What no one expected was what happened on 7th of February when the caretaker CM went to Marina and sat on a meditation in front of Jayalalithaa's memorial. 

The moment he uttered the sentence that they were irritated by his good work it became apparent that the party is splitting. It was funny to see some of the party spokespeople who were on show during his meditation stating that "Annan" is praying to amma that everything should go fine and immediately after his press conference calling him a traitor. 

Governor's dilemma

Governor going to Delhi and then Mumbai for a few days was not right when things were happening in Chennai. Governor is also being careful in ensuring no one legally questions him. The following actions prove that 

1) He accepted OPS's resignation within a day even though his actions were clear that he was in no hurry to swear in Sasikala. 
2) Denied the secret note he sent to Home ministry - even though he wanted to wait till the DA case verdict is out which is what he had apparently quoted in that said note. To ensure he is not questioned in the courts, he quickly issued a denial about such a note
3) Not allowing parading of MLAs - the Sasikala group was keen to parade the MLAs which OPS also requested him not to allow

Options and way forward 


For OPS

All in all OPS has nothing much to lose and has already gained a lot. He has become a true hero from being termed the mixture mama that is a huge. There is a huge groundswell of support for him and whether he will be able to win an election with that is a different question, but at least for now the general public seem to favor him over Sasikala.

• He at present has only 7 MLAs and with most of them lodged (don't want to use the term locked up) in the private resort in ECR the number can at best go up to 10 immediately. 
• I believe that if his request to withdraw his resignation was legally tenable the governor would have allowed that. 
• In case the SC acquits Sasikala in the DA case, his aim would be to get at least 20+ MLAs which will ensure the Sasikala's side doesn't get to rule the state (this is also true in case she gets convicted and appoints a proxy)
• The best case scenario that OPS would be hoping for is SC convicting Sasikala and the majority MLAs move over to his side. 
• In case SC convicts Sasikala and she would nominate some other proxy and try to rule from inside the jail or through the so called mannargudi mafia. 
• The worst case scenario for his is Sasikala is acquitted and whoever are with him currently desert him. He would have a tough time to keep his political career alive then. 

For Sasikala

With governor having no inclination to swear her in as the CM, her options are limited. Till date she has been able to maintain most of her flock together. She has more to lose than gain. 

• In case she gets convicted in the DA case, she will try to appoint a proxy as CM. Having seen OPS someone who is known not to have high ambitions revolt she would be very worried about appointing anyone to the post of CM, she might go with a safe option of someone from the family which might also cause more trouble for her. 
• Her best case scenario is the get acquitted in the DA case and ensure she continues to keep her flock of MLAs intact. 
• In case she loses more than 20 MLAs (either way the verdict goes) she can as well bid goodbye to her political ambitions as there too much hatred for her and her family among the general public and also the party cadres. 

For Governor

Having decided to wait for the DA case verdict to be out and playing it safe legally so far his options are pretty simple unless things take a dramatic change in terms of the number of MLAs supporting both groups. 

• In case of conviction request ADMK to select a new leader 
• In case of an acquittal swear in Sasikala
• In case the MLA supporting both groups change drastically (don't think that will happen unless there is a conviction) will be the most interesting option. Will he go for a composite floor test? Or ask either of the two groups to prove the majority? To me personally he will go with Sasikala group or go for a composite floor test as he has so far not allowed OPS to withdraw his resignation and if he was ok with that option he could have done so already. (In the said note that he sent to home ministry he has not mentioned anything about withdrawal and called OPS as only the caretaker CM.) 

Side notes

• It was pathetic to see some of the ministers in such inebriated state, if you are so drunk stay at home or at least don't talk in front of the press.  
• The cops are playing it safe and not taking any directions from either side. Which is expected, but what was really surprising to see is they didn't even act when the press were attacked yesterday. 
• OPS's house is so very accessible and there were more curious crowd trying to see what is happening there. I could see people going for their evening walks just drop by to see what's happening. 
• There are also lots of women supporters showing up at OPS's house.
• There is definite backing from central government for OPS. They would also want to ensure the party stay together as they need ADMK support during the President election. It would be interesting to see how central government acts in case Sasikala gets acquitted. 
• I would also be interested to see what will happen to all this public support that OPS has now in case there is an acquittal. 

For people checking for updates very hours or minutes, don't expect anything to happen till the verdict is out. The court has already gone back on its words that they will issue the verdict within a week. Hope they issue the verdict tomorrow (02/14) at least.  

All in all interesting times ahead for a political junkie like me.