What next for TN

Following on from my previous post (http://dailykaruthu.blogspot.in/2014/09/jayalalithas-conviction-lesson-for-all.html).

As expected O Panneerselvam has been elected as the leader of the Legislature and took oath as the Chief Minister for the second time. Also there are rumors that Sheela Balakrishnan, who is currently the Advisor the Government of Tamil Nadu (after her superannuation as Chief Secretary) and R Natraj, who is a member of the ADMK party was the Commissioner of Chennai Police and Chairman of TNPSC will be actively involved in guiding the Tamil Nadu Government.

As expected the violence that occurred on the day of the verdict ended the same day. Things came back to normalcy the next day. There were people who were baying for blood and asking for Presidents rule. Which is the most opportunistic that they can get. Things have changed after the Bommai verdict where dismissing the Government is not an easy task. The principal opposition party was wise to say they don’t want elections as they are not in shape to fight an election after two consecutive drubbings in the 2011 Assembly election and 2014 Parliamentary election.

Jayalalitha has moved the Karnataka High Court seeking bail, suspension of the conviction and quashing of the same. With the High Court in Pooja Holidays as expected the hearing is pushed to next week. She has to stay in Jail at least till October 6^th when the hearing will be taken up. There are some views that the fine is not in conformance with the Prevention of Corruption Act which states that the fine can be a maximum of the corruption amount. Will wait to see how the lawyers (including Ram Jethmalani) handle the case in the High Court.

The Chief Minister in his last term was not even sitting in the CM chair. The key difference between the last time and this time is that the appeal process was on going and it was a matter of time before a decision was made by the High Court to acquit her of the charges. This time not sure how long it will take for the appeal to get to a stage of verdict. The original cast took 18 years in the lower courts. Not sure Jayalalitha can allow the appeal to go on for 18 more years. Supreme Court has also ruled that the higher court cannot suspend the verdict when in appeal especially in such cases of prominent people. That being the case should be handled quickly.

In the worse-case for her that the appeal doesn’t progress at a fast pace, the state cannot afford to have a non performing Chief Minister. Even if Jayalalitha comes out on bail (which will definitely happen in a short duration) she will not be able to ask votes for a non performing Chief Minister. People will not vote for the person that she shows if they don’t see him working. The Chief Minister unlike last time cannot go to Poes Garden daily morning and act based on suggestion by Jayalalitha. He has to take his own decisions. He also needs to be even more proactive in all aspects. He has to show the people of the state that he can work only then the next election ADMK will come back to power. Not sure if Jayalalitha is ready to accept that.

Jayalalitha has to understand that she doesn’t have an option but to have an effective Government in place. That is what will be to her benefit in the long run. O Panneerselvam is not a person with high ambitions so she should not have a problem with him becoming over ambitious (that is highly unlikely to happen). He is not a mass leader and cannot become one also in such a short period of time. It is in everyone’s best interest that he performs effectively till the next election (I don’t think the appeal will get decided before then).