What next for TN

Following on from my previous post (http://dailykaruthu.blogspot.in/2014/09/jayalalithas-conviction-lesson-for-all.html).

As expected O Panneerselvam has been elected as the leader of the Legislature and took oath as the Chief Minister for the second time. Also there are rumors that Sheela Balakrishnan, who is currently the Advisor the Government of Tamil Nadu (after her superannuation as Chief Secretary) and R Natraj, who is a member of the ADMK party was the Commissioner of Chennai Police and Chairman of TNPSC will be actively involved in guiding the Tamil Nadu Government.

As expected the violence that occurred on the day of the verdict ended the same day. Things came back to normalcy the next day. There were people who were baying for blood and asking for Presidents rule. Which is the most opportunistic that they can get. Things have changed after the Bommai verdict where dismissing the Government is not an easy task. The principal opposition party was wise to say they don’t want elections as they are not in shape to fight an election after two consecutive drubbings in the 2011 Assembly election and 2014 Parliamentary election.

Jayalalitha has moved the Karnataka High Court seeking bail, suspension of the conviction and quashing of the same. With the High Court in Pooja Holidays as expected the hearing is pushed to next week. She has to stay in Jail at least till October 6^th when the hearing will be taken up. There are some views that the fine is not in conformance with the Prevention of Corruption Act which states that the fine can be a maximum of the corruption amount. Will wait to see how the lawyers (including Ram Jethmalani) handle the case in the High Court.

The Chief Minister in his last term was not even sitting in the CM chair. The key difference between the last time and this time is that the appeal process was on going and it was a matter of time before a decision was made by the High Court to acquit her of the charges. This time not sure how long it will take for the appeal to get to a stage of verdict. The original cast took 18 years in the lower courts. Not sure Jayalalitha can allow the appeal to go on for 18 more years. Supreme Court has also ruled that the higher court cannot suspend the verdict when in appeal especially in such cases of prominent people. That being the case should be handled quickly.

In the worse-case for her that the appeal doesn’t progress at a fast pace, the state cannot afford to have a non performing Chief Minister. Even if Jayalalitha comes out on bail (which will definitely happen in a short duration) she will not be able to ask votes for a non performing Chief Minister. People will not vote for the person that she shows if they don’t see him working. The Chief Minister unlike last time cannot go to Poes Garden daily morning and act based on suggestion by Jayalalitha. He has to take his own decisions. He also needs to be even more proactive in all aspects. He has to show the people of the state that he can work only then the next election ADMK will come back to power. Not sure if Jayalalitha is ready to accept that.

Jayalalitha has to understand that she doesn’t have an option but to have an effective Government in place. That is what will be to her benefit in the long run. O Panneerselvam is not a person with high ambitions so she should not have a problem with him becoming over ambitious (that is highly unlikely to happen). He is not a mass leader and cannot become one also in such a short period of time. It is in everyone’s best interest that he performs effectively till the next election (I don’t think the appeal will get decided before then). 

Jayalalitha's Conviction - The Lesson for all of us

Yesterday Jayalalitha was convicted in the Disproportionate Assets case by the Bangalore Special court. The case was filed in 1996 and it has taken 18 years for it to reach a conviction stage in the lowest court. This case was moved to Bangalore 2003 and even there it has taken 11 years. That’s how slow the judicial process works in India. Obviously, the case will now move to the High Court and even to the Supreme court if the High court doesn’t over turn the conviction. She becomes the first sitting Chief Minister to be convicted.

The sentence of 4 years rules her out from contesting elections effectively for 10 years (4 years now and another 6 years of disqualification). With the conviction she loses her MLA seat and effectively the Chief Ministership immediately. She has also been fined 100 crores – at this point of time it is not clear how she will pay the 100 crores when her assets as per her affidavit during the election shows her net worth as 51 crores. Heard that some of the fine will be adjusted against some of the property already attached. Not sure how much fine will be pending still.

This is the second time that she is being forced to step down from Chief Ministership. Last time she tried to use a loophole in the law – Law states that you cannot contest an election if there is a conviction but it didn’t state you cannot become a Chief Minister. This is what the Supreme Court didn’t accept in 2001 and she was forced to step down. That time she brought in O Panneerselvam as the CM.

Jayalalitha has been convicted by lower courts in two other cases – Pleasant Stay case and Tansi Land case. She got both of them over turned. She would hope that she will be able to do the same in this case as well.

In case the sentencing was less than 3 years the convicting court itself could have issued the bail. In this case with her being sentenced for 4 years she has to go to the High Court for bail. With the Karnataka courts going off for Dussera holiday from Monday, the earliest her lawyers can file for bail in the High court is October 6^th.

The ADMK cadres as expected have gone on a rampage yesterday immediately after the verdict was announced. Buses were off the road yesterday and most commercial establishments were shut down. It was more of immediate reaction and I am sure things will be back to normal today. Any politician will definitely try to get some sympathy going for them, I am sure she will also do the same. However, for that the situation should be kept under control. The former CM has sent a letter to all saying the law and order situation has gone out of control trying to show the world that his party is still around. I am pretty sure the administration (yesterday itself the police have issued a stern warning to everyone) will bring the situation to normal this morning.

The major problem for Jayalalitha in this case is that she has been convicted in Karnataka and her appeals should only go the the Karnataka High Court and not here in TN. She is also going to be in Karnataka jail and not TN. There are no major elections for next 19 months , which should give her time to at least get  a stay on the conviction. In case she doesn’t get a stay or in a worse situation she doesn’t even get bail by then, then there is a bigger problem. As with many other strong woman leaders (and our PM) like Mamata and Mayawati, Jayalalitha hasn’t allowed any strong second layer to be formed.

She has to ensure she is able to come to Tamil Nadu before the elections. With absolutely no second layer, I am not sure if people will vote for the party without her at the helm.

A leader’s main role is to create a strong second layer who can take care of things when they are not there.  There was a nice article in the Times of India some time back (Does India Inc have a drop dead plan). This should apply to our politicians also. That to me is the lesson for every one of us. Not the clichéd – No one is above the law.