Isolation of Vaiko and the AAP phenomenon

I have successfully reached post # 50.

There is a Mullivaikal memorial that has been constructed near Thanjavur and there is a statue of Prabhakaran and his son in it. I am totally surprised that people have the guts to put up statues and posters of global terrorists. People should differentiate between support for Tamils in Sri Lanka and the LTTE. LTTE was and is a banned organization. It was responsible for the killing of many Tamil leaders even in Sri Lanka.

The TN government demolished the compound wall as it had encroached on the National Highways. Vaiko was very harsh on the TN Government. He said people will spit on Jayalalitha for destroying the wall. Was really surprised with the words that were used. With this he has completely ruled out the possibility of any alliance with ADMK. 

Vaiko has been very vocal in his support of the BJP in the last few days as I have mentioned in my earlier post. Knowing JJ it would be interesting to see what kind of pressure that she exerts on BJP to isolate Vaiko further. To BJP JJ is more valuable than a Vaiko, so they might give in and isolate him completely. He is already become a spent force in TN. Only advantage of anyone including Vaiko is the tireless campaign that he will do for the alliance. He is a great orator which will be useful in drawing crowds. However those have not translated to votes in the recent elections. Even if JJ doesn't exert any pressure on BJP or if BJP ignores her pressure, BJP & MDMK will not win any seats unless they form a very large alliance. With this election MDMK and Vaiko will head towards extinction. Same can be said about PMK also. 

Coming to the second item of discussion. Aam Admi Party. To me personally any party to come to power will need at least 4-5 elections. However, all opinion polls are claiming that AAP can even become a single largest party in their first election (It is completely another issue that no psephologist have a scientific method to translate the support to number of seats). Which is highly impossible. Once people start taking you seriously they will throw all kind of muck on you, which is what the Congress and BJP are doing now. Be it the funding issue or the abusive words used in a rally, everything is coming out because people are taking AAP seriously. How AAP will react to all this will reflect on the true character of this party. They abstained from television debates on the funding issue. That doesn't reflect well on them. 

The art of translating crowd in rallies to votes is not easy. You need to ensure every supporter of yours gets to the polling booth and votes. With AAP the support is mostly the higher middle class and middle class. The upper middle class and upper class are the people who generally don't get to the election booth to vote. Even if the opinion polls are really reflecting the true picture, the AAP will find it really difficult to get support translated to votes. That is my view. 

I will be very surprised if AAP wins more than 10 seats in AAP.