Back after a short hiatus. Things have been pretty
hectic at work.
Tamil Nadu
The new front in TN (NDA) on paper might look strong.
However, all key parties in it namely DMDK, PMK, MDMK are all on the decline.
On paper people might claim that they have 22% vote shore but that was 5 years
back. Things have changed and I am sure they will not cross 15% on all and
maybe in one or two seats they will come second. Don't think they will have a
big impact.
DMK is a house divided and we have seen Alagiri
causing some damage to their prospects the last time he was sent out of the
party. Not sure if that will happen this time also. Even otherwise their
prospects look bleak
AAP is a joker in the park. Don't think they will get
even their deposits back except probably in Kanyakumari where Udayakumar from
the Kudangulam agitation group is standing.
Congress might do well due to individual’s capacity.
Like Thirunavukarusu or Mani Shankar Aiyar might do well (don't think they will
win though). Chidambaram could have done well if he had contested, but don't
think Karthi will even come second.
Primarily because of the opposition and the social
welfare measures that ADMK government has been taking in the last 3 years I am
pretty sure that ADMK will win close to 30 seats if not more.
National Updates
Advani didn't want to contest from Gandhinagar because
he doesn't trust Modi and fears he will ensure his defeat. No other
reason.
Arun Jaitley can be bit more polished in his chamcha
to Modi. When a senior politician is sideline things can be done in a more
dignified manner.
In the current BJP only what Modi wants gets done.
Others have absolutely no say.
BJP seems to creating more troubles for themselves.
The way they handled Advani/Jaswant issue or the Muthalik issue. It is really
funny when they can definitely be the single largest party they are causing
troubles for themselves. I repeat I said they can be single largest party not
that they will form the government.
Maharashtra - BJP/Shiv Sena combine could have done
well but the way they had dealings with MNS will ensure they don't even get to
half way mark in Maharashtra.
Congress should really be happy with all the self
goals from the NDA which will only help them especially in the states where
they are fighting only against each other.
Telengana issue seems to have backfired big time on
Congress. They couldn't get the merger or alliance with TRS, which will only
split the votes in that region. They had written off Seemandhra when they took
the decision to split the state.
AAP at the national level will hardly cross single
digit. Except in Delhi don't think they will win a single seat outside (disclaimer
- I didn't expect them to win so many seats in Delhi).
Opinion polls all seem to give BJP more than 200 seats
which doesn't factor in the individuals who are contesting. For eg, in MP I
don't think a Scindia, Kamalnath, etc. will lose. There are so many such
leaders from Congress who are sure to win, which will ensure the numbers don't
match what the opinion polls project.
Will try to give my revised projections in the next
few days.
